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Some Positive Outlook

Old 1st Oct 2008, 15:53
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Some Positive Outlook

Hey Everyone!
Just a thought because the trend of thought is to be totally negative on here, and for newbies (which most ppl are on here) it can get disheartning!
So an idea.....
This industry goes up and down, but is always on the average on the up. We have seen a blip of recruitment freeze from the big low hour employers ryanair etc but they have only said they are freezing until maybe early next year.
I agree, now would be a bad time to just qualify as a fATPL holder but if you start now either route (inte or mod) and qualify to end of 2010/2011 maybe this would be prime time to get into the industry as hopefully things may pick up?

Just a thought, but maybe this is the perfect time to start training, as if you start when its perfect, the time you finish it may be in a slump again?

What do you guys and gals think?
G-BFUN is offline  
Old 1st Oct 2008, 16:14
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Even when the industry is booming its still very difficult to get a job but you've got to be in it to win it!!

No one knows the outlook one or two years down the line so its a gamble, that gamble will always exist. I finished training in April and was lucky to get a job, most of my course mates wern't so lucky and will unfortunately need to weather the storm and try their hardest when the doors start to open again.

The industry was booming when I done my CPL and I felt like I had timed it perfectly, 6 months later....its a different story.
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Old 1st Oct 2008, 16:19
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I hope you're right. I intend to starting an integrated course this time next year, meaning I'd have a licence by 2010. I've spoken to pilots in person who think that the current situation is probably going to last for a year or two. I've spoken to people who know 'a bit about money' and they seem to think that the current financial situation may last a year or two before it begins to get better. But I come on here and the level of pessimism is astounding! However, I do understand why, with the numbers of pilots that have been laid off onto the streets recently.

I just hope the people I have spoken to are right, because I'm sick of modelling things on Solidworks and drawing stuff on Photoshop & Illustrator...
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Old 1st Oct 2008, 16:53
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maybe this is the perfect time to start training
Depends on how long you're planning on making the training last. Going on past cycles, we are looking at at least 2-3 years of contraction in the job market before things start to pick up. Given we are around 6 months to a year past the peak of the job market, I'd suggest that things are going to get worse before they get better.

Personally I wouldn't plan on getting the IR until 2010 or 2011 at the earliest. Probably not what you want to hear, but there will be an awful lot of guys without work, trying to keep current in the face of a stagnant job market . . .

If you really can't resist spending money on flying training (and we've all been there) modular is the way to go at the moment.
G SXTY is offline  
Old 1st Oct 2008, 16:54
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Personally I would hold off a bit and get yourself a bargain. I read on another post of one training provider knocking 10k off their course. When you start to see the big schools advertising heavily and running road shows begging for students I would go to them and make an offer and see what they say. Afterall they can only say no!

Remember of course to NEVER EVER pay up front. SFT cost many the shirts off their backs and ended their dream of being a pilot. That schools downfall happening in a recession as well.
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Old 1st Oct 2008, 17:13
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I'm sticking with my prediction of 2012 being the earliest time to be entering the job market.

This isn't a blip my friend..

WWW
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Old 1st Oct 2008, 17:25
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Was having a chat with someone the other day who is doing some sim checks (she’s the checker, not the checked) for a couple of airlines in the next couple of weeks, one scheduled one charter. The candidates are all low hours, C. 250 hours.

One swallow dose not a ... etc etc

iX
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Old 1st Oct 2008, 17:26
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Now isnt the time to start, we dont even know how the situation in america is going to go, i mean right now theyre heading for absolute meltdown.

I would suggest people wait at least 12 months to even contemplate starting training.

I was extremely lucky to get a job sorted out after finishing IR in July, but of 20+ people who started at the same time as me, just one other person got a job too. That means 18 people out of 20 with no job and massive debts....it really is an appalling situation to be in and i wouldnt wish it on my worst enemy.

Be very careful.
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Old 1st Oct 2008, 21:05
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I would suggest people wait at least 12 months to even contemplate starting training.
Very wise, but there are still jobs out there. Not necessarily airlines jobs, but plenty of people will pay you to fly. And if an airline does decide it has a vacancy for a low houred F/O would you want to risk missing it because you decided to hold fire with training for a while?

I know a few guys who have moved on from a 'stepping stone' company in recent weeks, thus creating vacancies. Senior pilots are still retiring, some unfortunate lose medicals etc. Just look at Flight International and you'll see the demand for experienced pilots around the world. Old hands move on, and fresh blood is needed to fill their shoes. There is still movement in the industry.

h
hingey is offline  
Old 1st Oct 2008, 22:54
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Old hands move on, and fresh blood is needed to fill their shoes. There is still movement in the industry.
But these new hires will not be the dream land wanabees who base their career on £65K to OAA then pop over to FR for a shiny new 73...

They will be the ones who know who and how to get a CV to etc and have likely got to 250+ hours (as in my eg above) from their 200 odd starting point via the ways mentioned above and in many other posts = working damned hard to get hours anyway they can!

iX
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Old 2nd Oct 2008, 00:24
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Where are the jobs though? Seriously, i have alot of friends who cannot get a sniff of an interview.

Last edited by a797; 4th Dec 2008 at 01:26.
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Old 2nd Oct 2008, 00:48
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Just listening "around the traps" here in OZ, there is a reasonable hiring rate in the small/mid size twin props area.

I am a freight dog and we have recently lost one of our number in the warehouse to a WA charter / semi schedule airline (Mines / stations etc..)

He interviewed for about half a dozen jobs just in the last couple of months, Air ambulance was one of them.

I think the struggles REX are having getting crew is affecting the aircraft types just below the SAAB's quite strongly.
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Old 2nd Oct 2008, 01:04
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The worst...

The worst are these flight schools with lies they tell prospective trainees.
They need YOUR money.
I guarantee you, they will lie better than used car salesmen.
Anything to sell you expensive, and more expensive training "to get you hired"...
xxx
Not far from 50 years that I am around airplanes.
Flight schools LIE since the October War 1973...
Their famous motto is "AIRLINE HIRING BOOM IS HERE"...
If I want to be a millionaire in aviation, I would not have an airline.
I would have a flight school, better, a TRTO...
xxx
Do you know THEIR COST of operating a 747 Classic simulator...?
$100/hour... How much DO YOU PAY for the Bournemouth's 747 simulator...?
Put 12 trainees in a classroom... I would laugh my way to the bank.
I know training better than most here... it is my specialty.
xxx
You can buy training and... a licence...
You cannot buy a job.
Certainly not with the way the economy goes these days.
Pilot hiring...? - Right now, just look at airlines' pilot attrition numbers.
That is the ONLY number you can rely on. Retirements and medicals.
I would be a wannabee in 2008, I would pull my hair... and cry.
xxx

Not so happy contrails, sorry...
BelArgUSA is offline  
Old 2nd Oct 2008, 02:08
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Please do not take offence.
I started the thread "some positive out-look" so to get a comment like

I would be a wannabee in 2008, I would pull my hair... and cry.
Isn't really going with the theme of things! There are so many NEGATIVE posts out there, I'm trying to keep this positive to a degree! Of course everyone is entitled to their opinion but the post you have just said once again is basically saying
"no new pilots will ever be recruited so lets burn all the training aircraft"
FlyBE and Ryanair only closed recruitment recently and they plan to recruit early next year (FlyBE anyway has only held off recruitment as they are converting ppl anyway)

I know the industry is in very bad shape, but it was Post 9/11 and one or two years after that had a momentary blip.

We'll get through it wannabies! slowly but surly!

Keep the faith!
G-BFUN is offline  
Old 2nd Oct 2008, 08:16
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BelArg.....don't waste your time, they will not listen. Its over the top for everyone into nice new jobs, well if so I hope so but I cannot blah blah blah you are not listening are you????
ford cortina is offline  
Old 2nd Oct 2008, 10:00
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As it stands, this thread is a pointless duplication of:

http://www.pprune.org/professional-p...n-upon-us.html

Whilst it is commendable to try and remain upbeat, it is extremely difficult given the current economic climate. The above thread tried to remain positive and look what happened to that! (although there is some good stuff in there).

I am surprised that anyone has bothered to duplicate their effort by posting on both. It just goes to show that people genuinely do want to help wannabees.

But you cannot shoot the messenger just because they are telling you something that you don't want to hear!!

G-BFUN - if you can 'chair' this thread and keep it positive then great, but I fear it will only go in the same direction as the above thread. Good luck!
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Old 2nd Oct 2008, 10:19
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The aviation industry is unpredictable


"no jobs until 2012... wait until 2011 ...surely from 2012...forget integrated...don't waste your money..."

The only thing I know is that the number of passengers is steadily growing, year by year ,everywhere in the world.
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Old 2nd Oct 2008, 10:55
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G-BFUN, there is a need a for pilots and there will continue to be a need for pilots. If anyone wants to grumble, do it elsewhere. It is difficult to get a job right now, but persevere and you will get there eventually.

Chin up, chaps!

h
hingey is offline  
Old 2nd Oct 2008, 11:05
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If you have the spare cash to throw at training AND you can afford to keep current then go ahead, because you will be ready for the upturn. If not sit tight, study the market and choose the time frame that suits your situation.

If it was me, I would sit back and watch from a distance.

Oh and yes there are jobs out there for the right experience and type rated guys.

Good luck to all.

D and F
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Old 2nd Oct 2008, 16:44
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I've had my application accepted for FTE. I shall be going to visit them, they are holding aptitude tests in November. I shall be attending those too - at least it's all free for FTE. I wont be making any final decisions any time too soon though!
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