A lul in the job market?
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reading your post made me initially think you were overreacting, but then I distinctly remember reading one of your posts many years ago on this forum when you accurately forecast GWII way before George W knew what was going on.
Wannabees shoot now or keep your powder dry.
Time to consider looking at the Netjets corner of the industry, nearly all bizjet production lines sold out for three years. Admittedly as are the 737/A320 lines, the difference being Hign Net Worth Individuals are a little more hardy to a financial melt down than new start airlines and lease companies.
Regards
reading your post made me initially think you were overreacting, but then I distinctly remember reading one of your posts many years ago on this forum when you accurately forecast GWII way before George W knew what was going on.
Wannabees shoot now or keep your powder dry.
Time to consider looking at the Netjets corner of the industry, nearly all bizjet production lines sold out for three years. Admittedly as are the 737/A320 lines, the difference being Hign Net Worth Individuals are a little more hardy to a financial melt down than new start airlines and lease companies.
Regards
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The issue is as I can see it:
UK aviation market consolodated in 2007 with the mergers and takeovers.
Reluctance by the majority of airlines to bite the bullet with line training, despite a wealth of fATPL holders out there.
A desire by airlines to beg, borrow or steal experienced pilots from one another rather than gain loyalty by giving people their first break.
The economy is slowing, Iraq was done to ensure China didn't get access to their oil in addition to the Iranians and ensure we had a cheap supply. With petrol hitting £1 a litre from 75p ish when the war started, its safe to say it hasn't really worked out ideally.
Housing is slowing, usually the early barometer of how things will pan out.
UK aviation market consolodated in 2007 with the mergers and takeovers.
Reluctance by the majority of airlines to bite the bullet with line training, despite a wealth of fATPL holders out there.
A desire by airlines to beg, borrow or steal experienced pilots from one another rather than gain loyalty by giving people their first break.
The economy is slowing, Iraq was done to ensure China didn't get access to their oil in addition to the Iranians and ensure we had a cheap supply. With petrol hitting £1 a litre from 75p ish when the war started, its safe to say it hasn't really worked out ideally.
Housing is slowing, usually the early barometer of how things will pan out.
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I can also actually more of a swing towards the Mentored Schemes which are used at the FTOs - by Netjets, FlyBE, Thomas Cook, Excel, amongst many others.
I do believe that honestly, these will in the future provide the best chance of employment for wannabes in the low houred market, and forsee that there will be significant growth towards these schemes in the forthcoming few years. They mean less risk to the airlines, and at the same time mean that only the cadets who reach the standards needed for employment with the airlines get through.
I do believe that honestly, these will in the future provide the best chance of employment for wannabes in the low houred market, and forsee that there will be significant growth towards these schemes in the forthcoming few years. They mean less risk to the airlines, and at the same time mean that only the cadets who reach the standards needed for employment with the airlines get through.
Formerly HWD
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I would have thought that mentored schemes are aligned with the strategic direction of an organisation and that probably means being in alignment with forecast retirements and planned fleet expansion.
They probably are not a very good way of dealing with general capacity shortfall which seems to be what has been experienced for the last couple of years. However, when an over capacity is realised so the projections are changed and so the aircraft order options are reduced and 'in-flight' mentored students chopped.
I don't see mentored schemes as a replacement for more 'ad-hoc' recruitment. Probably the case that both are essential for smoothing resource requirements.
They probably are not a very good way of dealing with general capacity shortfall which seems to be what has been experienced for the last couple of years. However, when an over capacity is realised so the projections are changed and so the aircraft order options are reduced and 'in-flight' mentored students chopped.
I don't see mentored schemes as a replacement for more 'ad-hoc' recruitment. Probably the case that both are essential for smoothing resource requirements.
Isn't someone missing something here? If we do head for a recession won't the first companies to be affected be NETJETS. It stands to reason that if companies start needing to tighten their belts for the turmoil ahead discretionary travel on the likes of NETJETS would be the first to go?
How could a company justify paying the exorbitant prices albeit for convenience of NETEJTS when the likes of the locos etc get you there for a hell of a lot cheaper? I'm sure NETJETS has an option to defer deliveries much like AA did with their 737's during 9/11.
WWW stands as a voice of reason during these insane times where people are dropping a 100K just to get a job and with basically nothing to show for it! I would wake up with cold sweats during the night if I had that amount of debt hanging around my neck!
Unfortunately many people here won't listen as they are lured by the prospect of flying a shiny jet and get sold all the garbage from your big players like OAT etc, but don’t take the time to research the what if scenario.
WWW keep it up. Some people are living with their heads in the sand!
How could a company justify paying the exorbitant prices albeit for convenience of NETEJTS when the likes of the locos etc get you there for a hell of a lot cheaper? I'm sure NETJETS has an option to defer deliveries much like AA did with their 737's during 9/11.
WWW stands as a voice of reason during these insane times where people are dropping a 100K just to get a job and with basically nothing to show for it! I would wake up with cold sweats during the night if I had that amount of debt hanging around my neck!
Unfortunately many people here won't listen as they are lured by the prospect of flying a shiny jet and get sold all the garbage from your big players like OAT etc, but don’t take the time to research the what if scenario.
WWW keep it up. Some people are living with their heads in the sand!
Formerly HWD
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Hmmm, could be the other way around. Netjets is born from the idea that a company jet is unnecessary excess. Even for a charter, getting six members of staff to a location and back in a day in a biz jet/tp is probably not that much more in cost than than mileage, parking, loco, hotel, meals, etc...probably more productive/efficient too.
As short haul travel is relatively cheap compared to the options and possibly considered more a utility than a luxury by many these days, I don't see the doom and gloom just yet. No doubt things will slow, but I'm not sure about a significant reversal.
As short haul travel is relatively cheap compared to the options and possibly considered more a utility than a luxury by many these days, I don't see the doom and gloom just yet. No doubt things will slow, but I'm not sure about a significant reversal.
PPRuNe Handmaiden
I believe that there will be some belt tightening in the industry over the short term (namely a couple of years) but overall, the trend is upwards. The industry is cyclical and if you're low on hours then it might be a bit of a struggle if you're restricting your options to jet FO only.
Always keep a weather eye on what's happening in the US and in Asia. Right now, flights are being cancelled because of not enough experienced pilots. However, their economy is slowing down. The building trade is definitely feeling the effects of the sub prime crash. Would I go full time now without the benefit of some sort of scheme, no. Would I commence a modular course while keeping a full time job? Yes.
At Flight Safety International in the States, the centre I'm at has no spare slots available for initial courses on the Hawker 800 XP for next year (2009). All slots sold already. The sim (Collins) is "flying" nearly 22 hours a day/7 days a week.
The people that fly on a Netjets or the like bizjet won't travel on a loco. Price is just one part of the equation. Will the market slow down? Possibly. No sign of it yet though. I think we're not far off the 1,000 pilot mark.
Always keep a weather eye on what's happening in the US and in Asia. Right now, flights are being cancelled because of not enough experienced pilots. However, their economy is slowing down. The building trade is definitely feeling the effects of the sub prime crash. Would I go full time now without the benefit of some sort of scheme, no. Would I commence a modular course while keeping a full time job? Yes.
At Flight Safety International in the States, the centre I'm at has no spare slots available for initial courses on the Hawker 800 XP for next year (2009). All slots sold already. The sim (Collins) is "flying" nearly 22 hours a day/7 days a week.
The people that fly on a Netjets or the like bizjet won't travel on a loco. Price is just one part of the equation. Will the market slow down? Possibly. No sign of it yet though. I think we're not far off the 1,000 pilot mark.
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Speak for yourself. My Career development loan repayments finish in 8 days time. My flying club has not had so many students for years and it has never had so few Instructors. I am going part time in my other job in the new year to do more flying.
The one thing that is different about the industry since the last big slump is that as we face recession this is the first time we have had "low cost". Lets all make a christmas wish things wont be so bad this time around.
The one thing that is different about the industry since the last big slump is that as we face recession this is the first time we have had "low cost". Lets all make a christmas wish things wont be so bad this time around.
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assymetricdrift
They provide the best chance of a low-hour job now, never mind in the future. And the least risk for an airline is to hire a pilot with a TR and experience on type. If we see a recession the weaker airlines will shed pilots and some may even go bust. That would mean the few airlines (if any) who may still want to recruit would be able to pick from all those experienced and current jet/TP pilots who all of a sudden are desperately seeking employment.
The mentored schemes are good news during times of peak airline hiring, such as the last few years, but they will be amongst the first things to go should the economy hit the buffers.
I do believe that honestly, these will in the future provide the best chance of employment for wannabes in the low houred market......They mean less risk to the airlines
The mentored schemes are good news during times of peak airline hiring, such as the last few years, but they will be amongst the first things to go should the economy hit the buffers.
