Are things slowing down?

[Boonanza]

Easyjet are forecasting fleet growth by 80 aircraft over the next 3 years, Ryanair will double both it's fleet and profit by 2012. Most of the EU major airlines have announced fleet replacement strategies, focussed on the 787/A350 and (fingers crossed) some more will commit to the 747-8.

737/A320/747/777/A330/787 production slots are edging on being fully booked for the next few years. Leasing values for 737's/A320's are very high, with limited short term availability.

The 747-400F production line is fully sold out and the 747-8F will bring with it another era in the air-freight market. Movements in global trade patterns + heavy growth in certain areas of central asia/africa, and the potential for development of an A320 freighter variant, with a rising trend towards internet shopping, integrators and freight carriers are poised for a busy few years to follow.

Fuel prices may be high, but for many European carriers, this has been partly offset by the weak USD, with many airlines gaining with leasing agreements/loans in USD.

Open skies between EU/US are to start March next year and the EU has just started talks with Canada about open skies. Oasis Hong Kong have proved a no-frills model that works between Asia/Europe, with others gearing up to tackle this market.

Emirates/Qatar/Etihad and many of the major asian carriers have very agressive expansion plans, and there are developing pilot shortages in Australia and parts of Asia.

Raising the compulsory retirement age to 65 has diluted the impact of retirements in the short term, however it will be interesting to see age distribution/retirement projections in the coming 2-3 years.

I am wondering if 2008 is just going to be the calm before the storm?!

I am aware that this is only one side of the argument, and would suggest anyone reading this post review some of the more 'doom and gloom' posts, but I thought it was about time someone put together a list of the counter-arguments to some of the more negative posts.

Nonetheless, if you really want to fly, you will do it no matter what the market conditions are... my first training flight was on the day Ansett collapsed.

Back to swimming in a holding pool for me... with the prospect of another year of swimming, but i am sure it will be well worth the wait!

Boonie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFGYcnBFxlw