US recession plus Open Skies may knacker the transatlantic party for some established names next year. House price crashes in Ireland, France, Spain, Southern Italy, Denmark and the UK are all under way and will seriously stunt the economy and second home ownership.
The Euro at 1.5 Dollars is threatening to cripple Airbus with its 2,200 Billion DOLLAR orderbook and its costbase in EURO... Same goes for many large European companies with worldwide sales.
All lo-co expansion will occur on the continent and with the big UK Charter airlines merging they will be looking for efficiencies not new hiring. Winter is not even half way yet and traditionally we see an airline go bankrupt over it. Won't be long now.
2008 is surely the year that Alitalia will finally collapse like the the walking zombie it has been for many years and they may just be the first.
The last recession started in 1990. Do a google search on the "18 yr economic cycle" and then check the calendar. Go on, do it.
Avoid sharp debt. Train slowly, train cheaply, train modular. Would be my advice right now. Moderate turbulence ahead.
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