Are things slowing down?
-£27m from a small fleet of old 737's is a bigger loss than I would have imagined likely. I sense a change of direction from their management. All hopes and plans seem to be leaning heavily towards the 787 and making money on medium and long haul.
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This made me smile.
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Rvr800
Regarding my post on the state of the economy earlier in this thread
It is true to say that interest rates are falling (LIBOR UK-Base)
It is true to say that employment is at an all time high
Its true to say that oil costs have fallen
The UK population rises 500 every day they are not building enough homes since Council house building was suspended many many years ago - that s true as well
There are all true
Dont get too depresed by the media stuff - they love bad news - People that succeed focus on their goals
WWW a few months ago you were saying it was boom bom boom now its all disaster. There is a danger that we all over react - fuelled by media. When WWW said things were extemely good they werent so good and now he is saying that they are bad they are not so bad....
Just trying to keep you all happy for Christmas
I can see the headlines now in the new year - 'Shops have had their best Christmas ever' etc - Easyjet posted biggest ever profit etc etc
It is true to say that interest rates are falling (LIBOR UK-Base)
It is true to say that employment is at an all time high
Its true to say that oil costs have fallen
The UK population rises 500 every day they are not building enough homes since Council house building was suspended many many years ago - that s true as well
There are all true
Dont get too depresed by the media stuff - they love bad news - People that succeed focus on their goals
WWW a few months ago you were saying it was boom bom boom now its all disaster. There is a danger that we all over react - fuelled by media. When WWW said things were extemely good they werent so good and now he is saying that they are bad they are not so bad....
Just trying to keep you all happy for Christmas
I can see the headlines now in the new year - 'Shops have had their best Christmas ever' etc - Easyjet posted biggest ever profit etc etc
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Very True
Here here
- see my last post
It is true to say that interest rates are falling (LIBOR UK-Base)
It is true to say that employment is at an all time high
Its true to say that oil costs have fallen
The UK population rises 500 every day they are not building enough homes since Council house building was suspended many many years ago - that s true as well
There are all true
Dont get too depresed by the media stuff - they love bad news - People that succeed focus on their goals
WWW a few months ago you were saying it was boom bom boom now its all disaster. There is a danger that we all over react - fuelled by media. When WWW said things were extemely good they werent so good and now he is saying that they are bad they are not so bad....
Just trying to keep you all happy for Christmas
I can see the headlines now in the new year - 'Shops have had their best Christmas ever' etc - Easyjet posted biggest ever profit etc etc
- see my last post
It is true to say that interest rates are falling (LIBOR UK-Base)
It is true to say that employment is at an all time high
Its true to say that oil costs have fallen
The UK population rises 500 every day they are not building enough homes since Council house building was suspended many many years ago - that s true as well
There are all true
Dont get too depresed by the media stuff - they love bad news - People that succeed focus on their goals
WWW a few months ago you were saying it was boom bom boom now its all disaster. There is a danger that we all over react - fuelled by media. When WWW said things were extemely good they werent so good and now he is saying that they are bad they are not so bad....
Just trying to keep you all happy for Christmas
I can see the headlines now in the new year - 'Shops have had their best Christmas ever' etc - Easyjet posted biggest ever profit etc etc
Hmmm, So JP Morgan issue a report predicting a US recession.
Antony Bolton (Fidelity Special Situations fund manager - most successful fund manager there has ever been in the UK) today says the credit crunch will infect the worlds stock markets like "a cancer". He fears that the combination of tightening credit, increasing pressure on consumer expenditure and falling property prices will have a severe impact on the economy.
Meanwhile the RICS survey on house prices today shows a 4th month of falls with the measure of market optimism being the worst ever recorded by the Institute.
And that's a small part of todays round up. You may think I'm a sheep Rex but my flock is large.
Cheers
WWW
Antony Bolton (Fidelity Special Situations fund manager - most successful fund manager there has ever been in the UK) today says the credit crunch will infect the worlds stock markets like "a cancer". He fears that the combination of tightening credit, increasing pressure on consumer expenditure and falling property prices will have a severe impact on the economy.
Meanwhile the RICS survey on house prices today shows a 4th month of falls with the measure of market optimism being the worst ever recorded by the Institute.
And that's a small part of todays round up. You may think I'm a sheep Rex but my flock is large.
Cheers
WWW
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Rex have you ever in your life time experienced what a credit crunch or banking crisis is like??
Trust me it is absolutely terrible in the city of London at the moment... people are losing their jobs left rights and centre... I agree interest rates will be cut aggressively next year but that will be for good reason... all people like WWW are saying is take off the rose tinted specs because the current upturn in airline recruitment is over. Troops coming back from Iraq will make zip all difference. If you are about to get £70-80k in debt you really need to think much more carefully today than 6-12 months ago.
Libor has hardly moved since the BoE cut rates.... still over 100bps over base rate which is a clear indicator of EXTREME stress in the financial system.
Sorry hate to break the bad news to you but things are bad, Jo bloggs in the street may not realise it yet but the fact that the central banks are having to step in and take action should give you an indication of just how bad it is.
You could ask many many people in senior positions at banks in the UK how bad they think it is and they will tell you the current state of the inter-bank lending market is far worse than 92... banks are not lending to each other so they are not going to be too willing to lend to anyone else over the next year or so. None of this is sensationlism, I wish it was, it is fact (WWW seems well informed). If the UK manages to avoid a recession in the next 1-2 years it will be very very lucky. Commercial property values are already down 10-15% from highs just 4-5 months ago.
I really really wish this was just a city of London issue but it is hard to see how it can be. Yes life will go on it always does but you guys really are not going to know whats hit you over the next 12-18 months if you don't prepare yourselves financially for tougher times ahead. Feel free to PM me if you want to know more about my background and why I am quite so gloomy on the outlook... this is not from reading the Daily Mail... unfortunately i am having to deal with this every day at the moment
Trust me it is absolutely terrible in the city of London at the moment... people are losing their jobs left rights and centre... I agree interest rates will be cut aggressively next year but that will be for good reason... all people like WWW are saying is take off the rose tinted specs because the current upturn in airline recruitment is over. Troops coming back from Iraq will make zip all difference. If you are about to get £70-80k in debt you really need to think much more carefully today than 6-12 months ago.
Libor has hardly moved since the BoE cut rates.... still over 100bps over base rate which is a clear indicator of EXTREME stress in the financial system.
Sorry hate to break the bad news to you but things are bad, Jo bloggs in the street may not realise it yet but the fact that the central banks are having to step in and take action should give you an indication of just how bad it is.
You could ask many many people in senior positions at banks in the UK how bad they think it is and they will tell you the current state of the inter-bank lending market is far worse than 92... banks are not lending to each other so they are not going to be too willing to lend to anyone else over the next year or so. None of this is sensationlism, I wish it was, it is fact (WWW seems well informed). If the UK manages to avoid a recession in the next 1-2 years it will be very very lucky. Commercial property values are already down 10-15% from highs just 4-5 months ago.
I really really wish this was just a city of London issue but it is hard to see how it can be. Yes life will go on it always does but you guys really are not going to know whats hit you over the next 12-18 months if you don't prepare yourselves financially for tougher times ahead. Feel free to PM me if you want to know more about my background and why I am quite so gloomy on the outlook... this is not from reading the Daily Mail... unfortunately i am having to deal with this every day at the moment
I 100% gaurantee you it is on the way Rex.
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if forces leave Iraq one day, they will come back once we realize is better to have people killed there than people killed in our city centers(example, attacks in Algeria).
Leaving Iraq is another lie and the only way to resolve this issue is to go there all together(maybe in 2020)cuz so far,after 5 years, the situation is still not resolved and they won't resolve it by just leaving or staying with minimum troops(what we see, is like a palestine-israel conflict which can take years to resolve).
the situation is not so bad like in 1992 or 2001, it is just a slow down due to economic fears of what is happening in the USA by people borrowing to much(US citizen who want everything with credits cards).
less job coming in the future, but more secured jobs.
So keep your money if you have some , wait for 2008, and we will see.
and by the way, if cost of housing falls, that's good for me and for all young people looking for a house.How can you buy a 1-2 millions house anyway when you make 1500-2000 euro/month?prices are crazy in UK!
Leaving Iraq is another lie and the only way to resolve this issue is to go there all together(maybe in 2020)cuz so far,after 5 years, the situation is still not resolved and they won't resolve it by just leaving or staying with minimum troops(what we see, is like a palestine-israel conflict which can take years to resolve).
the situation is not so bad like in 1992 or 2001, it is just a slow down due to economic fears of what is happening in the USA by people borrowing to much(US citizen who want everything with credits cards).
less job coming in the future, but more secured jobs.
So keep your money if you have some , wait for 2008, and we will see.
and by the way, if cost of housing falls, that's good for me and for all young people looking for a house.How can you buy a 1-2 millions house anyway when you make 1500-2000 euro/month?prices are crazy in UK!
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RexB,
I think he meant it is better to fight on their turf than on ours. As for your last sentence, while philosophically it is true, the practical working out is subject to the demands the citizens place on politicians. I agree the value of a human life, should be the same everywhere (should be is idealistic, aren't equal is the reality), but the accountability to which we subject our government is different when the lives lost in a fight are from our own country. You can say it is hypocritical and disgusting, but then isn't that a mandate for intervention anywhere innocent lives are currently being taken? That is a slippery slope to tread on.
I think he meant it is better to fight on their turf than on ours. As for your last sentence, while philosophically it is true, the practical working out is subject to the demands the citizens place on politicians. I agree the value of a human life, should be the same everywhere (should be is idealistic, aren't equal is the reality), but the accountability to which we subject our government is different when the lives lost in a fight are from our own country. You can say it is hypocritical and disgusting, but then isn't that a mandate for intervention anywhere innocent lives are currently being taken? That is a slippery slope to tread on.
Lets stay on topic folks.
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Some really informative posts guys - I've really enjoyed reading them - thank you. All the indications are that we are heading towards a major economic slowdown. Therefore, IMHO, all carriers will suffer - less disposable income means less opportunity to travel - esp non business-related travel. Therefore, the prospects for wannabees MUST be bleaker.........
As to whether one type of carrier will suffer more is largely irrelevant. I.E. - suppose it's the flag/legacy carriers whose seat bookings fall off and their pilot recruitment declines - that has a knock on effect down the line due their historical postion at the top of the food chain - i.e. no upwards movement from the regionals/LOCOs ergo less wannabee opportunities.
I think all carriers will suffer in equal measure - the weak will go under. There's already a huge degree of rationalisation being undertaken - this is a further hindrance to recruitment with the likely release on to the job market of many experienced green-bookers......
Without wishing to drift off topic in a major way, the middle east 'situation' does have a direct bearing on the industry and therefore job opportunities - it's absolutely delusional to ignore this fact. I joined BA on 07/07/05. The director of flt ops came in to give us our welcome pep talk on the 8th. He stated that long haul bookings from the far east and across the pond were being cancelled in droves............we all thought that we might enter the Guinness book of records for shortest pilot careers ever!
To all wannabees, the best of British to you all!
As to whether one type of carrier will suffer more is largely irrelevant. I.E. - suppose it's the flag/legacy carriers whose seat bookings fall off and their pilot recruitment declines - that has a knock on effect down the line due their historical postion at the top of the food chain - i.e. no upwards movement from the regionals/LOCOs ergo less wannabee opportunities.
I think all carriers will suffer in equal measure - the weak will go under. There's already a huge degree of rationalisation being undertaken - this is a further hindrance to recruitment with the likely release on to the job market of many experienced green-bookers......
Without wishing to drift off topic in a major way, the middle east 'situation' does have a direct bearing on the industry and therefore job opportunities - it's absolutely delusional to ignore this fact. I joined BA on 07/07/05. The director of flt ops came in to give us our welcome pep talk on the 8th. He stated that long haul bookings from the far east and across the pond were being cancelled in droves............we all thought that we might enter the Guinness book of records for shortest pilot careers ever!
To all wannabees, the best of British to you all!
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well it's definitely not all doom and gloom. I was just offered a job this morning in a shiny jet. My history, I have 280 hours total and i start my type rating in january.there are jobs out there kids, but it's a hard slog to get there.
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Probably the best thread I've ever seen on PPRUNE, time to post!!
I left the military straight into the last recession, redundant from Air Europe going bust, big mortgage & only just kept the plates spinning. Have since taken a very keen interest in economics for obvious reasons. Ignore the cheerleaders they will talk it up all the way to the bottom. Listen to WWW and a few others who are bang up to date with the info (sorry, can't recall usernames), the outlook is not looking good. I'm flying in what might be considered the safest company to be in but I'm concerned.
The decade of debt and the turning off of the credit tap must have major ramifications, not to mention the state Gordenron Brown will leave us in.
As ever do your own research, sadly I fear the long wave cycle may be upon us because of this mess, it's being mentioned a little to often for comfort. Blame the banks/politicians/city boys whoever you like but Brown has not ended 'Tory boom and bust' and it's not 'different this time'.
I left the military straight into the last recession, redundant from Air Europe going bust, big mortgage & only just kept the plates spinning. Have since taken a very keen interest in economics for obvious reasons. Ignore the cheerleaders they will talk it up all the way to the bottom. Listen to WWW and a few others who are bang up to date with the info (sorry, can't recall usernames), the outlook is not looking good. I'm flying in what might be considered the safest company to be in but I'm concerned.
The decade of debt and the turning off of the credit tap must have major ramifications, not to mention the state Gordenron Brown will leave us in.
As ever do your own research, sadly I fear the long wave cycle may be upon us because of this mess, it's being mentioned a little to often for comfort. Blame the banks/politicians/city boys whoever you like but Brown has not ended 'Tory boom and bust' and it's not 'different this time'.
In the USA consumer inflation surged by the largest amount in more than two years in November, led by gasoline prices. The cost of clothing, airline tickets and prescription drugs also jumped.
Their Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.8 percent last month. 0.8% times 12 is 9.6% annual inflation and that is a total crisis that cannot and will not be allowed to happen. Anything above 5% would be a catastrophe.
Therefore there is no room to cut interest rates, indeed they may well rise.
Now guess what is happening to inflation here in the UK? Anyone bought a pint of milk, a litre of diesel, a therm of gas, a loaf of bread in the last couple of weeks?
With house prices down 4 months in a row and still falling despite interest rate cuts what do you will think will happen if the Bank of England has to RAISE interest rates?
I am only an amateur economist. I could well be wrong. But right now, things are bad and I think they are going to get a lot worse. I think we will see a recession and house price crash greater than the 1990 one. I hope not. My job would be at stake if this occurs.
I think there is a fair chance it will happen though.
Google "18 yr economic cycle" and bear in mind 1990 was the last UK recession.
WWW
Their Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.8 percent last month. 0.8% times 12 is 9.6% annual inflation and that is a total crisis that cannot and will not be allowed to happen. Anything above 5% would be a catastrophe.
Therefore there is no room to cut interest rates, indeed they may well rise.
Now guess what is happening to inflation here in the UK? Anyone bought a pint of milk, a litre of diesel, a therm of gas, a loaf of bread in the last couple of weeks?
With house prices down 4 months in a row and still falling despite interest rate cuts what do you will think will happen if the Bank of England has to RAISE interest rates?
I am only an amateur economist. I could well be wrong. But right now, things are bad and I think they are going to get a lot worse. I think we will see a recession and house price crash greater than the 1990 one. I hope not. My job would be at stake if this occurs.
I think there is a fair chance it will happen though.
Google "18 yr economic cycle" and bear in mind 1990 was the last UK recession.
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Just to confirm that it will still be steady for experienced pilots for a while, and what is a dramatic turnaround, TCX have an advert going in next weeks Flight looking for type rated FO's, which type I dunno!!!!
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WWW whilst inflation is a concern the UK yield curve is factoring in 3-4 25bps interest rate cuts next year... why? This is because the primary concern the MPC has at present is that the inter-bank market has stopped working in the UK.... this is the "circulatory system" of financial markets in the UK and it suffered a catastrophic heart attack on August the 9th this year... a month later Northern Rock failed as a result... and believe me the situation hasn't got any better since. Inflation is a real concern but at present the stress on the banking system is so extreme that the MPC seem willing to risk inflation to try and improve liquidity and get banks to lend to each other again. They are litterally Sh8tting themselves about this now.... this is a quote from Paul Tucker an MPC member yesterday... this chap is one of the 8 people that meet and set UK interest rates every month.....
"The turmoil in financial markets is not just a 'City' event....the severity of its impact on the real economy will depend on how long the squeeze in credit markets lasts. There is no doubt credit conditions for both households and firms have tightened. We must try to avoid a vicious circle in which tighter liquidity conditions, lower asset values, impaired capital resources, reduced credit supply and slower aggregate demand feed back on each other,"
Does this all matter for you as a wanabee??... absolutely... this is the biggest risk the pilot recruitment market has faced since 9/11 in my opinion and the liquidity crunch is the more acute in the UK than anywhere else in the world).... these events perhaps should drive a greater degree of soul searching than normal if you are thinking about getting heavily into debt to do your training... especially if you have a family that are dependent on you... good luck folks... sunset appears to be fast approaching in this current economic cycle
"The turmoil in financial markets is not just a 'City' event....the severity of its impact on the real economy will depend on how long the squeeze in credit markets lasts. There is no doubt credit conditions for both households and firms have tightened. We must try to avoid a vicious circle in which tighter liquidity conditions, lower asset values, impaired capital resources, reduced credit supply and slower aggregate demand feed back on each other,"
Does this all matter for you as a wanabee??... absolutely... this is the biggest risk the pilot recruitment market has faced since 9/11 in my opinion and the liquidity crunch is the more acute in the UK than anywhere else in the world).... these events perhaps should drive a greater degree of soul searching than normal if you are thinking about getting heavily into debt to do your training... especially if you have a family that are dependent on you... good luck folks... sunset appears to be fast approaching in this current economic cycle
TCX may need to recruit... perhaps there will be some First Choice guys only too happy to eject:
First Choice losses widen as job cuts loom
Package holiday operator, set to merge with Thomson, blames financing costs as it plunges further into the red
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle1931506.ece
I know the City believes (hopes) there will be a series of rate cuts in the UK next year and that inflation looks less of a threat than a banking crisis. However I believe the banking crisis is unstoppable as evidenced by yesterdays stock market slump in response to the measly $100billion the central bankers were able to muster as an emergency liquidity giveaway. Unless Ben Bernake is going to charter every helicopter in the US there is going to be a banking crisis and SIV's and CDO's won't even be the bulk of it.
My view is that the pound will fall at least 15% early next year at which point imported inflation will soar and we'll be back to 1971. Interest rates will have to rise to stamp out hyperinflation before it takes grip and damn the housing market and never mind the banking crisis.
Stock up on beans, put on your foil hats and take to the cellars!
WWW
First Choice losses widen as job cuts loom
Package holiday operator, set to merge with Thomson, blames financing costs as it plunges further into the red
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle1931506.ece
I know the City believes (hopes) there will be a series of rate cuts in the UK next year and that inflation looks less of a threat than a banking crisis. However I believe the banking crisis is unstoppable as evidenced by yesterdays stock market slump in response to the measly $100billion the central bankers were able to muster as an emergency liquidity giveaway. Unless Ben Bernake is going to charter every helicopter in the US there is going to be a banking crisis and SIV's and CDO's won't even be the bulk of it.
My view is that the pound will fall at least 15% early next year at which point imported inflation will soar and we'll be back to 1971. Interest rates will have to rise to stamp out hyperinflation before it takes grip and damn the housing market and never mind the banking crisis.
Stock up on beans, put on your foil hats and take to the cellars!
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You really think what we are looking at is so serious EZY would have to shed flightdeck? I know we don't have a seniority list but if we did then I am somewhat further down it than you. I agree, we are looking at seriously bad financial weather going into 2008, I thought however ezy was as safe a seat as you could find right now.
Cortilla
Congratulations and have fun
I think we will see a recession and house price crash greater than the 1990 one. I hope not. My job would be at stake if this occurs.
Cortilla
Congratulations and have fun
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Gosh I thought I was pretty down on the outlook... if what you suggests comes true WWW we may well live to see a re-nationalisation of BA!.... back to good ol' defined benefit pensions... big fat pay packets... maybe its not so bad after all 
(note: tongue firmly placed in cheek)
Oh just though I would add data released today by the IPD shows commercial real estate values fell at the fastest month on month rate in history in November... down 4% in just 1 month.... the peak decline in one month in the early ninties crash was 1.5-2%.... put on the hard hats boys and girls...
(note: tongue firmly placed in cheek)
Oh just though I would add data released today by the IPD shows commercial real estate values fell at the fastest month on month rate in history in November... down 4% in just 1 month.... the peak decline in one month in the early ninties crash was 1.5-2%.... put on the hard hats boys and girls...