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The CTC Wings (Cadets) Thread - Part 2.

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The CTC Wings (Cadets) Thread - Part 2.

Old 28th Apr 2009, 10:15
  #2801 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
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You have to have a place on the course first.
99jolegg is offline  
Old 28th Apr 2009, 10:34
  #2802 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
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Yep, got my place on CP77 but not recieved the offer pack yet.

Will I have to wait til I get that?

Emma
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Old 28th Apr 2009, 10:54
  #2803 (permalink)  
 
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I think you get the login details when you forward them your Class 1 medical.
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Old 29th Apr 2009, 19:43
  #2804 (permalink)  
 
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Tread carefully....

As has already been repeated throughout these threads, caution is the current name of the game.

CTC clearly needs cadets like never before, as demonstrated by:
- reducing application charges
- opening up their ATP stream, despite demand clearly not being there
- advertising that if you don't start asap, course prices will increase

This last point really causes concern and generally points to a level of real desperation.

Furthermore, if you look through their last accounts, the following concerns can be noted:
- loss making in 07/08 (even at operating profit level) - how on earth is it doing now?
- negative cash outflow for the last 2 years - simply can't continue!
- directors being forced to write why they believe the business is still a going concern! Not normal.

Now, I am not for one minute suggesting that this business will go bust (and have no inside information) but please be really, really careful as 60k+ is a huge sum of money.

CTC has undoubtedly proven itself to be a good product in the boom years, but for now, why not wait 12 months to avoid any sleepless nights!
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Old 29th Apr 2009, 21:05
  #2805 (permalink)  
 
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Furthermore, if you look through their last accounts, the following concerns can be noted:
- loss making in 07/08 (even at operating profit level) - how on earth is it doing now?
- negative cash outflow for the last 2 years - simply can't continue!
- directors being forced to write why they believe the business is still a going concern! Not normal.

Where do you get that information from?
TheBeak is offline  
Old 29th Apr 2009, 22:36
  #2806 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Yeah doesn't make for pretty reading.

Not sure how much cash/liquid assets CTC have parked on their balance sheet, but i doubt it would be sufficient to absorb figures like that in the long term. Negative cahsflows are often one of the first signs of trouble.

As already mentioned the most worrying is that some of their recent measures reek of desperation.

Last edited by Ollie23; 29th Apr 2009 at 23:18.
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Old 29th Apr 2009, 23:08
  #2807 (permalink)  
 
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Sad news really - particularly for those half way through the course out in NZ. Bet they were pleased to see the ATP scheme started!

I must say I smelt a rat straight away when I saw the Wings ATP scheme open. With the cadets struggling to get summer temp contracts, the idea of throwing more pilots into the hold pool in today's climate suggests all is not rosy down at the mannor.

Time will tell, but all of the above information is classic behaviour of a company clutching at straws.

Many here have said the credit crunch will do some serious damage to the integrated training world. Perhaps it will never be the same again - certainly there will be less 60k loans.

The bottom line is wait and see. If they are still here in 18 months time then think about it. In the mean time keep your money. And hands off the old man's house!
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Old 29th Apr 2009, 23:17
  #2808 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Total assets are worth 32,074,000. Cash reserves are 1,939,000.
Thanks. I doubt that a large portion of the assets are particularly liquid should they need to shore up the cash reserves at short notice though.

Sad news really - particularly for those half way through the course out in NZ.
I am not sleeping easily and haven't been for a while i can assure you.
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Old 30th Apr 2009, 12:50
  #2809 (permalink)  
 
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The accounts cover the period when considerable sums of money were flowing Thielert's way to keep the twin stars flying, compounded by alpha in nz going bust, which required more hired aircraft than anticipated. Indeed a large portion of the loss is attributable to ctc nz in the accounts.

That said, if the best they could manage was a fairly sizeable loss (though considerably less than the profit made in the previous year as a group) while times were good, I agree that the figures for the current period must surely be pretty sickening....
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Old 30th Apr 2009, 13:23
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And to be honest, it was their short-term, poor decision making to buy untried and tested fleets for the company because they could buy them and operate them cheaply (relatively). Buying DA42s for NZ was an absurd decision. So it IS there fault that the accounts are so bad. Short termism almost certainly leads to failure - It means people can't see the wood for the trees.
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Old 30th Apr 2009, 14:06
  #2811 (permalink)  
 
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When schools have gone under in the past, they trade and take students money right up until they go bust. It happened to several schools in the past, and the students were left with nothing. It was a while ago (SFT, PPSC etc) and it is the reason why so many argue that you should never pay up front.
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Old 1st May 2009, 04:23
  #2812 (permalink)  
 
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Yes it is, just 12% of their portfolio.
99jolegg is offline  
Old 1st May 2009, 08:06
  #2813 (permalink)  
 
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The G1000 and the DA42 are fantastic bits of kit. BUT buying a European aircraft and a European engine for a New Zealand training organisation which is working to deadlines was foolish. Especially when they had the problems with the same maker (Diamond) with the Katana. No body had many hours on the machine at all, it wasn't tried and tested. If there were ever going to be any problems then getting parts was going to be a minimum of a week long affair. Not enough foresight. Too much focus on the 'cost of running' which was the ONLY decision making factor. It is nothing like flying an airliner. It is a postive and relevant step forward though, G1000 and FADEC are awesome. Don't believe the hype.

Why not buy Senecas with G1000? Or any twin they can be bothered to fit G1000 to? Seminoles, Duchess, Comanches, ANYTHING!

With the new engines however I am sure the DA42 will be fine and CTC will not have the same kind of problems with it.
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Old 1st May 2009, 08:20
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It has got to be the longest roll out of an aircraft to get it flying trouble free!!! They were imminently arriving ready for flight when I was out there in mid 2003. Would have been nice to have had a go in one.
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Old 2nd May 2009, 12:31
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I think some of the info being banded around re CTC's finances seems a bit subjective. Two statements made by FANS were:

"negative cash flow for the last two years"; and
directors being forced to write why they believe the business is still a going concern - not normal".

I also got hold of CTC's accounts and noticed the cash outflow figures, however if you look at the detail of their cash flow statement you will see that the "net cash outflow for capital expenditure" for the same two years totals over 3.6m, and yet the total cash outflow over the same period totals 2.5m. It seems that the cash outflow was a result of acquiring new assets then?

I showed their accounts to a mate who is training to be an accountant who told me that apparently the other place to look at to assess a company's cash flow is the value attributed to "net cash inflow from operating activies". Apprarently as long as this is positive, then it shows that the company is generating cash from its day to day activites. Although the figure dropped in 2008 from 2007, CTC's accounts seem to show that they did generate cash from all their activities.

I also asked my mate about the going concern part, as I wondered about that too. He told me that all accounts now have to have a statement in them which give the directors' opinion of the company to operate as going concern. I checked out HSBC Bank's accounts (all 472 pages!!) and they have made a similar disclosure on page 331:

"Since the Directors are satisfied that the Group and parent company have the resources to continue in business for the foreseeable future, the financial statements continue to be prepared on the going concern basis"


so it would seem that this type of statement is normal.

I guess we don't have info on what is currently the position of CTC right now, but you would think they would be foolish to keep sending pilots out to New Zealand if they thought they were about to go bust.
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Old 2nd May 2009, 13:13
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You have taken a big interest in it then by the looks of all your research and efforts! Are you considering joining CTC? Or do you work for them? No problem if you do......

Certainly everything I have said is not intended to slate CTC, I have no basis to. And I would say if you insist on doing an 'all in' package integrated course CTC is your best bet in terms of opportunities after training. They certainly have more of an invested interest in your future.

but you would think they would be foolish to keep sending pilots out to New Zealand if they thought they were about to go bust.
That is complete crap though. They are a limited company. They have no liability to refund money or return anyone from NZ if things were to go wrong. Their liability is to what they have invested. They have nothing to lose by taking people on and will continue to do so until the bitter end, whenever that maybe, if ever that maybe.
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Old 2nd May 2009, 13:22
  #2817 (permalink)  
 
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Got my offer throught for a course going out in November. MANY questions!
1. Price going up to 69,000 squiddles. Doesn't this put it on a par with the likes of Oxford's 'Pilot in a Can' course? Plus the foundations course costs!

2. What region are the loan repayments in? If you were to get a job straight away, what sort of dent would the repayments make, and how long to pay off?

3. The upfront thing doesn't bother me - you pay in instalments - if CTC go bust, you stop paying. But what safeguards are in place should CTC go bust? Do you come out with any qualification?

Overall, with the unsecured loan going, the price going up, and the depressed state of the mployment market, can people remind why CTC has always been discussed as a 'third way' into the aviation industry (Military, modular, Oxford etc., and then 'CTC)??

I'm not trying to be negative at all, I am genuinely motivated. Just would like to see some fresh discussion in the light of present circumstances.

ETC
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Old 2nd May 2009, 16:08
  #2818 (permalink)  
 
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CTC was the "third way" as you call it because at the time it was an excellent way into the airlines, with the boom hiring times you were almost certain to get a permanant job contract at the end of training. It was possibly slightly less expensive than FTE or Oxford, and well known and quite highly regarded within the industry.

However that is not the case now. Gradual increases in the real cost of the course, paying for foundation flight training on top of the 60k, that 60k now up to 69k etc means that there is much more parity between it and other training organisations. Loan repayments would now be up to over 1300 a month, based on that sort of outlay. As a new FO at a lot of airlines you'd be struggling to break the 3000 a month barrier, if that. Maybe more like 2700-2800. 7 to 8 years to pay back at a minimum.

And that's before we get to the real problem, no permanent jobs with the state of the market as it is and quite possibly none for a very long time. What's to stop any airline only taking on contract FO's in the high demand season ad infinitum. So you get paid 1000 a month plus maybe a few '00 in sector pay. You can't pay back that loan and live.

The benefits of CTC or any other integrated course have been shot down i'm afraid, certainly for the moment, much better to go modular now if at all and spread your training and cost risk out.

That's the reality.

WBV

Last edited by Wing_Bound_Vortex; 3rd May 2009 at 00:08.
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Old 2nd May 2009, 16:42
  #2819 (permalink)  
 
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Well said WBV. I think the contract way of employment is the way most airlines (certainly CTCs) are taking things, now people have shown willing it has set a precedent. And it could get worse, you give them an inch and they'll take a mile.
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Old 2nd May 2009, 16:46
  #2820 (permalink)  
 
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Fuzzle's comments are very interesting....

Fuzzle, firstly welcome to PPRuNe and thank you (and your accountant friend!) very much for helping to clarify the situation. We can all sleep easy now.

It was very good of you to selflessly go through 472 pages of HSBC's accounts purely for the benefit of all of those wannabes on this forum....

I am currently out of the country at present so do not have access to the stat accounts, but will go through the stats on my return. I may also ask an accountant friend for help out.



P.S. Directors are indeed required to prepare the accounts on a going concern or break-up basis, however they normally only include a one liner like HSBC - I seem to remember that CTC (given it's a smaller & a private company)had to go into more detail.

Choosing a bank to compare CTC's stats to is also very interesting - do you know something we don't?! I seem to remember that Northern Rock, HBOS, Lehman Brothers etc etc all considered themselves going concerns...

Lastly, I have nothing against CTC and agree that accounts are subjective. They are already well out of date and I have no idea how badly CTC is currently performing, but please note TheBeaks' spot-on last comment.
FANS is offline  

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