In order to understand the GLOBAL pilot shortage, STW would have to broaden his mind a mind.
He’s already stated he is not interested (as in eligible) in the European and US markets, and I am going to go out on a limb and expand that to South America and the Indian subcontinent.
He’s probably also not interested in what’s going on in the Middle East, so neither should you be.
Which leaves Africa (probably well below par for the ole chap), China and HKG.
If you put yourself in his shoes for a moment, you can clearly see that from his point of view there is NO pilot shortage.

Piet, are you ok? You used to at least read my posts before having your usual rant. Tired? The EASA FTL's are a bitch, hope you are fine..

I was emphasizing the unfortunate fact that there is no global shortage, only a regional one in the US and Australia. Kindly see the thread link and the post I was replying to.

If you want to leave Asia and return to Europe, or even change jobs within Asia, as an experienced pilot it's extremely difficult and most likely only possible by making extreme financial sacrifices. You will probably end up like Piet, in a mediocre job he only took to be home. As I said a million times before, it could still be worth it, money is not everything, but this is a complete different discussion. Presently there is no shortage of suitable pilots in Europe or Asia, and again and again, I am talking about job prospects for experienced guys at a certain age. A shortage of candidates at Whizz Air Base Hungary for 3000 Euros is not a shortage, it's a tragedy. That is precisely what I was commenting on, and the above thread link would inform you I am not alone making this assessment. Just bloody read it if you care.

I am only modestly interested in alleged future shortages, mainly because I happen to live now and not in 10 years and also just about anyone can make these predictions. Also after about 20 years hearing these claims in here, without ever materializing, frankly, it's getting a bit boring.Also AoA, what statistic should I please consider? Which data? Show it to me! I bet you can't. You made a very common mistake. You mixed up projected(!) growth and demand(!) with shortage. Not the same thing. Plus exponential growth of IT technology is not included, the demand is based on current cockpit layouts and technique. It doesn't require much fantasy what consequences recruitment problems in US will have on AI solutions and automation. Massive investments in this sector will eventually lead to higher productivity, unavoidable. And again, the crucial question is of course, where and when is that mystic shortage? I need a job today not in 2035.

As to the main title of the thread, Cathay is still not imploding, but will soon post record profits. The seniority list will grow with the help of cadets, upgrade times will go down. Some familiar names popped up at the bottom of the list as well, another clear indicator of how difficult it is to secure a financially reasonable employment elsewhere.

The shortage is a fever dream, as is the demise of Cx, it's wishful thinking. All the talk about safety problems is just tiring and ignorant of the actual data. Look at the safety records of Chinese or Indian airlines just as an example. Exactly what I said from the beginning, and for what I get crucified and ridiculed in here since years now. There will be a massive rebound, amplified by the enlarged HKIA next year and high profits, mark my words.

Now go on and shoot the messenger as usual, it's ok, I know you guys are unable to distinguish between a debate on future developments and taking sides..

You know what’s getting a bit boring? (But still mildly entertaining).
Your thick skull and inability to admit you’re wrong.

US regional shortage? How many ex-CX guys are now flying for AA/Delta/UPS/Fedex/Atlas/United?
All regionals?

Also: who has trouble reading when I have told you multiple times that I have not gone home and didn’t have to make any “extreme financial sacrifice”, on the contrary, but you have always been good at ignoring facts and statements that don’t suit your narrative.

You keep doing you and we will continue to laugh at your silliness, although, as you said, it is getting a bit boring.

Let me end on a positive note for you, since you always seem to be willing to be so nice to me: the European low-cost market is indeed a tragedy.
And I blame pilots like you not willing to fight for better cos’s. !!!!, there goes my positive note.

Piet, the discussion was about whether there is a GLOBAL shortage, as some in here claim. I am saying there is no such thing, it is a REGIONAL shortage ( as in restricted to certain geographic regions , like the US or Australia).

Get some sleep! 😉

Having used staff travel extensively around your “region” the last few months, networks and frequencies aren’t anywhere near what they were pre-COVID. If pre-COVID levels of flying achieved in Asia the pilot shortage should be glaringly evident. If China picks up it will be carnage with less obvious pilot markets straining ( Vietnam for example ).

CX seems slow off the mark versus say SQ. They aren’t alone. QF faces similar expansion issues in part limited by lack of pilots.

My prediction is by next year the global pilot shortage will fast hit Asia. Cathay will be profitable but constrained in expansion perhaps due a lack of Captains. Despite having flexible labour contracts its management seems lost in a legacy past. DEC’s make sense in excess of the trickle of ex-CX and ex-KA coming soon.

I read pprune and generally don't comment, but mate, what world are you living in? I'm in Canada, and there's a full blown shortage everywhere... Air Canada has been hiring at an unprecedented rate, and they will continue to do so for at least the next 12 months...Upgrade times right now are sitting around 2 to 3 years on all narrowbody fleets at AC, and all the major Canadian carriers have been hiring in droves. The situation is the same in the US, both at the majors and the regionals, and, in other parts of the world also

Yeah but what you need to understand is that those shortages are limited to NA and a little bit in Aus. The EU has absolutely no issue at the moment plugging someone in the right seat of a 320/737. CX also has no issue with hiring crew, there’s still plenty of the 100+ who were let go in 2020 waiting to return, and many others with previous jet time lining up to jump in a widebody. AirNZ can still be picky with its applicants because there is simply no where else for NZ pilots to fly. I’m not always a fan of the tune STW sings but he’s not wrong in that regard.

I can't comment on Canada, so ok, shortage in US, Australia and Canada. This is still not a global shortage.

Gnadenburg, I hope you are right.. I think we can agree there will never be a shortage of cadets, correct? Will there ever be a shortage of suitable FO's to upgrade in Cathay? Not sure. 777 and 747 has hundreds of potential candidates available with enough experience, plus as you mention it's now possible to go for DEC as well..As long as HKexpress and HK airlines can recruit.. By the way, I read somewhere that China is already very close to pre-Covid levels in terms of traffic numbers.

My guess is that in fall a profit share exceeding previous meagre couple of weeks will be announced, in order to match renumeration packages of our competitors.

STW, you sound like Reg:
“All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?”

No. still not the old Piet. Not a matching comparison at all, since as opposed to Reg I am not backpaddling. From the beginning I am saying no shortage in EU and Asia, same as in this moment. You did not read my posts properly, it's very obvious. Additionally, admittingly without any personal knowlege of the local Canadian market, only last year laid off based Canadian pilots relocated back to HK, I spoke with a couple of them, both experienced Cpts. They told me exactly the same: no suitable job offers in Canada that come even close to what CX is paying them, so they rather chose to endure quarantine and brutal restrictions and relocated to HK, in the midst of Covid. This is a true story, in total dozens returned. Go figure.

PS Instead of having a constant go at me, why not spend 5 minutes to research the job market in EU and Asia? I am not the enemy here, just get a reality check please. Remember Long Tail and Air Belgium, both r.i.p.? Do you even know the take home pay at ASL or Cityjet etc?

Shortage in India too, off set by Go Air stopping flying. But Air India and Indigo are struggling to recruit fast enough to meet expansion plans.

Frank, here is a link to the recruitment site of the Lufthansa Group.

https://www.be-lufthansa.com/en/pilot

No vacancies for experienced pilots at the mainline, they occasionally recruit cadets only if at all. Upgrade time around 15 years for 737 and 20+ for long haul. Some limited offers at the low cost sub brands. Please research the pay scale at Eurowings or Discover, trust me, you will be in for a shock. Then subtract 45% tax and you might need a drink and some fresh air. These jobs are extremely poorly paid, you work a lot, and some contracts put you on no pay in low season. It's reflecting the very opposite of a shortage, they obviously get away with offering these low figures or they would up them.

The pay deal at LH is only possible because of enormous union power, similar to the US. It does NOT reflect a shortage and it's worth to look at the fine print, LH pilots agreed to previous cuts, which why the current raise looks high. The pay offer is the result of astronomical costs because of previous industrial action crippling the operation, not out of fear of losing staff. I guarantee you they would open every single Champagne bottle in their cellars if high seniority captains on A++ scale would voluntarily leave, the notion they want to keep them is really erroneous.

I do agree with you that we live in truly exceptional times, will see how this all works out in the end.

I expect to see this featured in the AussieDashCams monthly video on YT at some point!

Frank, bottom line there is no shortage of experienced pilots jobs in EU! Please don't distract by pointing out pay rise at airlines nobody of us will ever get into. It's as relevant as what UPS or Delta pays: zero. Cityline is hiring? You are looking at 2500 Euro net and 10 years to left hand seat, if you are lucky. Come on, let's not turn this thread into a kindergarden, you are better than this. Don't distract by turning this into "I take a worse job for quality of life" discussion either. I said multiple times, and please just check above, yes, sometimes it might be worth accepting lower pay for quality of life. Of course!! But this is an entire different discussion and topic. It might be worth becoming a gardener in Tuscany or a teacher in Paris, but what has that to do with pilot shortage??? Your accusation I would not see lifestyle over pay is simply not true, I literally just said it again in this very thread:


I am talking about alternatives for experienced CX pilots in Asia and Europe, amd I am telling you there are no attractive jobs. Swiss??? You know well this is a lowly paid right seat for life job. Plus neither Swiss nor LH mainline hire anyone past 40 years of age. If you really know the German ( Swiss?) market so well, you should mention that imho. What else you got??? Condor F/O??? Come on, please, not you too.

Exactly. This is the sad truth.

Any other great airlines that are not hiring you want to talk about?

;-)

Nail meet hammer!

Since you’re too thick to see the Reg comparison, I’ll spell it out for you:
”Okay, besides the US market, the Canadian market, the Australian market, the Indian market, the Asian market, the Middle Eastern market and the European flag carrier market, what have the Unions ever done for us?”
And we’ll keep adding more and more markets.
The fact that YOU don’t qualify for any of these markets because of age, looks or IQ doesn’t mean they’re not there.

Yes, I do know what salaries are at ASL and AirBelgium chief and it is indeed a tragedy.
I already “conceded” that.
Hence I didn’t end up there.
You always seem intent to compare apples and apples (or so you say) and that’s a bit hard when you compare things like housing costs.
i paid about HKD70,000 a month in housing in HKG. Where I am now, I pay less than a quarter of that, for a much nicer place.
I know you “conceded” life style, clean air and children’s education and health already, so I won’t go there.

By the way: AirBelgium is not “r.i.p.” (yet), so there’s yet ANOTHER inaccurate statement. (Sorry for the capitalisation, but not really).

(Is this the “old Piet” yet? Please let me know, since I am DYING to get your approval oh wise one)

Bloody PRC spoilt a bloody good Honkies layover !

He choked on his coolade!

The place is definitely imploding
 

What an amazing. experience...................


At least all the crew are descent people...............

Does that mean they’re all going down? :}

May I cut into this discussion?

Europe (incl. Germany) is far from any pilot shortage. "Shortages" in the UK may be true, the same in the US, but UK is no more EU-member, thus labour market closed to expats, like it is in the US. If the labor market for pilots in the US would be the same like in the EU, there would absolutely no shortage either, and salaries wouldn't be 500000$+, but end at 300000$.
The examples of Condor aren't fully valid: They neglect massive paycuts at Condor during their Chapter11-bankruptcy, which Condor survived only due to massive aids from the EU and the new investor (Attestor). So what they got additionally just neutralizes some of the cuts.
Other airlines in Germany are still behind pre-corona (like TUIfly with a total of 20% off), Ryanair what is it?, Easyjet has closed it's Berlin base.
So indeed the only "winner" ist Lufthansa, but LH does, as mentioned before, not hire experienced pilots, nor DECs, so they cannot be included in any discussion like this. But be careful: The agreement between LH and "Vereinigung Cockpit" about 25-50% payrise extends over 3 years and includes a one time tax free yearly extra pay of 3000€, as offered by the ministry of finance to all employers/employees in order to cover extra spendings for energy (sharply risen prices due to the Ukraine-war and sanctions against Russia).
Small attempts of Wizzair or Eurowings (Bases ARN, PRG, PMI) to attract pilots with a one time premium pay of 30000€ may be a sign of an improving labour market for pilots (coming from desastrous conditions for pilots before), but are not yet a sign of a "shortage". Only when monthly salaries at the mentioned airlines rise significantly, we might reevaluate the situation.

I concur with Memphis. In a real shortage situation the offered pay would have to be higher and the requirements lower.

Salaries don't go up immediately when there is a shortage.

First everybody starts hiring
Second, the hiring requirements are lowered. -seen that across the board
Third they will start to sponsor foreigners -virgin is doing that now
Fourth they will start to improve conditions.

This process ensures lowest cost per new employee, they don't start throwing money at it unless they absolutely have to.
There is a lot of movement between airlines at the moment, low cost to legacy etc. Once low cost can not crew, they will up the salary, then legacy has to follow.

Well, but isn't it fair to say that in this very moment there is no shortage? It may develop as you described, but we don't know that, do we? We all have seen airlines hiring and then stopping again, for whatever reason. Or simply recruiting at a constant rate, to unchanged conditions. There is no automatic sequence from a hiring phase to a shortage.

The problem is indeed, that Europe is in a downturn already for many years, even at legacy carriers. To a certain extent this didn't hurt, since inflation was low or zero, while now still averaging 6% in Europe, with core inflation figures (w/o energy etc) even higher. In contrary to that airlines even deteriorated their T&Cs further and further, gaining momentum during the pandemic and in a total summary even LH-guys are "behind schedule", concerning their purchasing power, not talking about most non-legacy carriers.
Of course T&Cs now improve, but still there are enough qualified pilots, rushing in from anywhere, as Europe is a open labour market, compared to UK and US. And as long the mentioned salaries i.e. of Condor are attracting people from somewhere, being a huge improvement for them (unless they start calculating deduction for social welfare and taxes, as well taking into account living costs in Germany - a tiny appartment in the big and affluent cities costs 2000€/month, and the 6000€ mentioned above will result in 1500€ left after all deducted), there will be no "shortage".
The myth of "pilot shortage" has always been maintained by flight academies, even in worst times, in order to attract new students willing to pay. Most of them however never managed to get into one of the bigger airlines, heaving been left behind disappointed.

Well, I would say that there is a shortage, but that we are not yet at the stage where they start throwing with money, which would depend if the shortage is maintained and the bottom line is threatened.

I do see it progressing to that stage, though..

Like I wrote before, I see lots of pilots going from a to b and from c to a, but effectively no new pilots are entering the scene. Once the airlines realise they are losing as many people as they are gaining and things settle down, they have to attract from outside or up the money. (which they should, pay is generally terrible for pilots in the UK and Euroland)

There is no shortage of pilots so to speak.

There will be many individuals good and suitable enough to join the cadet programme but it does take time for them to be productive for the airline.

There are also many pilots out there who would not hesitate to take up a position with Cathay, especially those coming from turboprops, military or those with jet hours but working for really much more undesirable employers.

However, there is a shortage of well qualified and highly proficient pilots with above average capabilities and skills. CX probably can’t attract these guys as much as they could in the past for reasons we can all agree.

This might lower the experience levels in CX but this doesn’t necessarily mean it is unsafe.

There is no shortage of pilots, just a shortage of highly experienced and proficient ones.

When to know there is a shortage? When $ goes up. Just as we have seen in specifically in the US.As of now, again, no shortage in Asia or HK.

Ex-CX guys over in Europe are saying there are plenty of jobs. Virgin are recruiting, BA are recruiting, Norse, Jet 2, Ryanair and EasyJet. DHL are also looking for NTR 777 and 767 pilots. I have friends who went to AeroLogic and they are on great pay and conditions. Not as good as here in the US but they are all climbing in regards to conditions and pay. The fact that some think there are hardly any jobs over there is baloney

Also Tui, whizzair (direct entry command).

Fac6, Oasis, you are right, there are job openings, but..

- most are at LCC
- most are right seat only
- most are very poorly paid ( Whizzair, Eurowings)

To my knowledge Aerologic is offering about 8-9K after tax incl some overtime ( this could be wrong, I have no first hand source). This would be for long-haul with a difficult commute ( dep. on your residence obviously) and 80-90 hours block, round the world trips, 3 men to HKG via india.. I don't find that very attractive if true, it certainly would be on the lower edge for this kind of ops, and a 50% + cut (!) for a Cx CN.

Norse T&E are very poor, BA recruiting mainly for a LCC with significant less pay, Eurowings PMI base is 4500 Euro net for CN..So yes, technical job offers, but acceptable..?

Interestingly, most of the jobs you mentioned are from the UK, not EU. Seems like there is an imbalance and continental Europe not catching up for some reason.

Fully agree to each word. The "imbalance" in the UK is due to their now closed labour market, while rest of Europe (at least EU + Switzerland, Norway etc) are open, thus getting "relief" from anywhere, even though it has "catched up", concerning the number of jobs (not T&Cs).
Aerologic, as mentioned has got a though rostering w/o taking time zones aspects into consideration (beyond mandatory EASA-rules), like legacy long range carriers do. The jobs there are ok, but on the long term the rosters can be accepted only by working part time. The pay instead doesn't (yet) reflect that, even though they made huge profits during past years.

Gents, i'm not sure what you're all on about saying there are no jobs and there's no shortage. The simple reality is, there is a shortage, globally, period. Whether it's a "shortage" of experienced pilots, is irrelevant. There are seats to be filled, that aren't being filled. Left or right, does not matter. All the ME3 airlines continue to hire like crazy, and without having to read pprune, I have first hand accounts from several ME3 pilots who tell me there are not enough pilots to keep up with the renowned demand since the recovery has started from covid.

Oasis hit the nail on the head perfectly. Airlines will start hiring, and will lower requirements before they will pay, and then if they can't get locals, they'll find a way to attract talent from abroad. Step 3 all depends on the country, it's easier in some to bring in foreign talent then in others.

I can tell you that in Canada, hiring minimums have gone way down, and I mean way, way down. There is one regional that pay is so bad, there are more pilots leaving then being hired. What has the solution been thus far? While trying to bridge the pay gap, it doesn't happen overnight... so step 2 has already happened. 5 plus years ago, you weren't getting an FO job without 2500 hours, now? Hiring mins are 500 hours, yes, you read that right, 500 hours, and there actually have been pilots with 500-700 hours getting hired lately... The same can be said of the legacies in Canada, where it used to be 4000-5000 hours, some have now gone down to as low as 1500 hours... and yes, while the mins are one thing and normally most hired are usually way above mins, those times have changed, and lot's of pilots have been getting hired right at the mins, and in some cases, well below the mins!

Times are changing, whether some of you want to believe there is a shortage or not is up to you, but it does exist, and it is a global phenomena more or less

People are getting hired at US majors with 1600 hrs. Anyone that suggests there is "no shortage" is not willing to recognise reality

Yup I believe it. Don't remember where I heard/read, but one of the fastest widebody captain upgrades happened in the last year or so at one of the majors (Delta I believe it was). It was something like 3 or 4 years in the company, when he/she got the upgrade...

​​​​​

It was actually 6 months. 767 command. I was at Delta a few months ago and got the story from their management. It wasn’t just one person either. They are cannibalising their training capacity this summer to meet air travel demand. So the pilot shortage is multi-faceted. It will hit Asia by early next year in my view however I don’t believe it will positively affect CX pilots. The mindset of both the pilot group and management is mutually deleterious and self-destructive.

I think Memphis made a very valid argument: labour shortages are the result of restrictions for foreigners. Without those restrictions shortages won't easily materialise. Airlines like Cathay can recruit literally anyone from anywhere. Most countries in America and UK restrict influx of labour, as a result employers fight for those few with a local license, green card etc. The EU's single market and Asia's open door policy might be a very important factor going forward. Additionally, as Frank A. rightly pointed out, Chinese youth unemployment is at record high, same situation in Southern and Eastern Europe. I disagree respectfully with Gnadenburg, I don't see any individual responsibilities within the pilot group, the dominant factors are of a macro-economic nature in my opinion.

Woaw, I didn't realize it was 6 months... that's, impressive, to say the least

It was 6 months. Junior base slots went Captain upgrade in that period of time from joining. My friends son has been there less than a year (757) and he could upgrade now, but prefers to be a relatively senior FO with a better schedule. The bigger point is that a senior CX captain now earns less than a two year FO at a US major. I remember when senior management told the CX pilots that they would always be paid at least 10% more than the next highest paid in the world. A rather sad and pathetic joke now

For me, I didn't say there is no shortage. I just tried to separate between continents, countries and markets. I fully agree with the reports from the US, I've got friends there and needless to say, why the big legacy carriers there are offering fantastic salaries, being 3x as much as the highest salary with European legacy carriers.
But once again - this is an "artificial" shortage, promoted by strict immigration rules and the pilots unions in the US. If the "shortage" would seriously endanger the business of US-carriers, they would already have asked Washington to easen Green Card-requirements for pilots. With the given T&Cs, I could imagine myself applying there, even commuting from Europe.
And Europe (once again: Europe, not US/UK!) doesn't reflect that. Yes, there are now jobs, however there are still closures (i.e. due to sanctions against Russia) and cutbacks like at SAS or last years TUI Airlines (massive layoffs), which help other airlines fill their vacancies. As Oasis said, it will take a long run, before this affects T&Cs. And neither Lufthansa, nor Air France and others are offering DEC-opportunities, and they never will, as unions keep an eye on that.

A good summary is this post from last year (NetJets): pprune.org/biz-jets-ag-flying-ga-etc/642679-netjets-europe-hiring-again-20.html?ispreloading=1#post11242083
It might be 1 year old, but basically the situation hasn't much changed till now, except that there are more (low paid) vacancies.

I wouldn't entirely call it an "artificial" shortage because of immigration laws, because it isn't just that. Yes, it plays a factor, but one of the biggest reasons the US has a shortage is the 1500 hour rule to operate any part 121 aircraft. I won't get into all the reasons why the "shortages" exist, we've gone off topic enough

Whatever the reasons are, T&C's in the US have gone from some of the worst in the world, i.e regional FO's making 20k USD a year 10-15 years ago, to now, arguably, the best T&C's in the world, where-as Cathay, once one of the best, if not the best, airlines to work for in the world, has gone the complete opposite way in recent years.

Call it what whatever you want, it's unfortunate, and clearly, cyclical, based on many variables. That's the reality, and the point I wanted to make is, people need to accept the ever changing environment, and not pretend that everything is fine, when it's not.