https://hk.appledaily.com/news/20200...MM5JZ5T26JCNE/

Thanks Gnads!
b.

easier in the short term, no one can predict when travel will return to full swing, it could be next week, it could be in 2026. With the 3rd runway well ahead of schedule, slots will be on the market soon, with competitors chomping at the bit. I imagine the group will be wanting to maintain resources as far as possible. It’s easy to make 1200 pilots redundant, when demand picks up, it’s not so easy to just get pilots back in the seat. Substantial long term pay cut across the board would make sense, followed by redundancy as a last resort.
that's just a guess, only time will tell.

Keep dreaming!!!

Btw, it’s “champing”, not “chomping”.

Hmmm. Do I detect a hint of hostility towards the KA boys and girls?!

Apart from doing our own thing what was it we were supposed to be doing for you United?

As you are saying we are about to be 'bitten in the ass' could you please give us the benefit of your inside knowledge because we all want to know what the big plan is for the Dragonair scum.

Are you saying CX pilots will be exempt from the changes coming next month? News flash for you United: You're not special. None of us are, we're just group employees.

The company will do what they need to do and there is nothing the HKAOA or the DPA can do about it other than sit and wait for the update next month. Good luck to everyone in the group, including you United.

I couldn't give a toss about KA or the DPA and vice versa.

Ummm No. No one can predict when travel will return but it definitely won’t be next week. That’s not a prediction, it’s a fact.

Strategically speaking, if the ultimate goal is to save the company while replacing all expats with local workforce, this might be a golden opportunity for them. You just can't come up with any better reason other than being made redundant.

Ummmm, No. there are no FACTS( ie a point proven to be true) highly unlikely, agreed, but no one knows... least of all, the pilots.

for sure, however, it is not cheap to make expats redundant( especially senior pilots)

How will they go about a LIFO? Dosent make sense for company to get rid of cos18 guys , defeats the whole purpose of a new COS. Plus majority them is on 747.

From my understanding the purpose of the new COS is to LIFO. So in theory this does creates a "parallel" seniority list of people who cannot be affected by LIFO. LIFO therefore starts from those at the back end on COS99/08/18.

If someone was willing to sign onto COS18 I can assure you they will get numbers signing COS20 to protect themselves.

Which people would you like us to enjoy ?

herewego75.

A very good post. I agree. Follow the contracts, LIFO. Get on with life. Things will eventually turnaround when governments realize that Covid is not the bubonic plague and can be dealt with more rationally, that money doesn’t grow on trees, and economies reopen. At some point, in the not too distant future, expect to be recalled/rehired in seniority when things turnaround (they always do). Come back at that time if it suits you, otherwise continue down a new path in life.

Effectively increasing the block hour unit cost in this environment is not something the accountants would have recommended.

The recent murmurs of everyone getting their notice and them offering COS20 -1200 or so pilots (whether they be redundant or on furlough, whatever that may mean) just sounds a lot more like a corporate solution given the amount of flying we will all be doing for the foreseeable future.

We will see soon enough, either way it is going to suck. I however don’t see them keeping the same contracts for everyone whilst they cut off the cheapest part of their workforce. It might not be fair, but life isn’t fair is it.

What was that you were saying about a 'fxxk you, I'm alright Jack attitude'? There I was wishing you all the best and that's the response. Says it all really.

herewego75
 

"It seems that 20-25% has been the standard in the industry. Considering CX will bounce back strong I predict about 20% of pilot cuts across both KA and CX. "

Dreaming ???
Without question you cannot compare CX to "industry standard"...
For example, US airlines (pre China Virus) would have 20000+ domestic flights PER DAY. How many does CX have ?
It's unquestionable fact that international flights will be the hardest hit AND be the last sector to recover with some economists saying "if ever"
Australia, for example, "may not" allow international flights until July 2021 !!! What then, back to normal overnight?
Additionally, if you wish to call KA mainland flights "domestic", that sector is 100% controlled by the thugs up North which have ZERO empathy for poor old Swires .

Sad, every way you look at it..

#CXIT

I don’t think HK labour law allows for furlough- you are either employed or not. Plus I would think any recall will be on COS2020/21/whatever the latest version is.

Does make sense for two reasons:

1. At the moment a HKG S/O is costing more than an Oz based Capt.

2. Company doesn't need any S/Os at all. If there isn't enough work for all the pilots, they need to reduce pilot numbers. You can operate without any S/Os, but you need Capts and Relief F/Os.

How will they go about it? Not rocket science. Last In First Off for each seperate pilot body until the desired number of pilots is reached.

Totally agree with your post and logic.
Whilst it is very hard for our newer pilots to accept that redundancies are the way forward this is the only way. Park 30% of your airframes for the foreseeable future and you need 30% fewer pilots. Each crew needs a captain and at least an RQ first officer. SO's are not required at all, however inexpensive to employ. As for the DEFO's, well they knew the rules when they signed up. LIFO but at least you got a jumbo rating for your troubles.