pilot shortage
 

QF Boys
 

QF boys, might be time to dust of the CV's?

Was that an advertisement?

QF SOs already joining Virgin.

"Market forces" as Mr.Tyler once said, may translate into better CoS'... (may)

b.

a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight. still haven't seen one ! :sad:

Stuckgear (or mic as the case may be),

Doubt if you were around with the W. Bros, but if you were a qualified pilot in the early 1930's when United and the boys really started growing then I'll be you would have been in high demand. The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years). This was still before the 1978 deregulation act in the US (good or bad depending on if you were a pilot, passenger, or aircraft manufacturer) The 1980s was a seesaw battle of hiring and laying off with the startup of new airlines and their subsequent failures/mergers. Add in "gentlemen" such as Frank Lorenzo and the terms and conditions for pilots slowly started to degrade. Nearly the entire decade of the 1990's saw soaring pilot hiring in the States. (albeit the latter year hires ended up getting furloughed after some idiots flew into buildings in New York). This is where Fedex, UPS, and Southwest had enormous expansion. (that's what she said :O)

Therefore, I would submit that there have been many pilot shortages and good times of pilot hirings. Ask some of the A scalers who were hired in the late 80's/early 90's. I suppose that your view only goes back 10-15 years and/or that you've never lived or don't currently live in the US.

Those who ignore history are.....ah never mind.

Never in Australia, unfortunately. Traditionally there have always been far too many pilots for far few jobs and that will not change.

sodapop,

i guess you missed the element of sarcasm.

i understand from several friends who are Vietnam vets (both rotor and fixed wing) that following the Vietnam war every gas station attendant had a commercial licence. (again this is obviously a joke with sarcasm added)

though again, the previous post was also made with [sarcasm mode/on]

couldn't agree with you more nad its a primary reason why the industry is in the state it's in.

I think most of the headlines should probably read "Demand for cheap, pay to fly,bonded,cadet pilots set to soar."
Sad but true.

This will obviously only apply to international carriers such as CX. With the recent FAA 1500 hour rule, there won't be any cadets flying part 121 in the US.

Of course it won't change, due to few number of major cities in Australia and its relative distance from Europe and the US.

Call me humorless, but I fail to see any sarcasm in your post, hence my response. Kindly disregard if you should.

Dear lord baby Jesus with your golden flowing hair .... please let the prediction of pilot shortage come true at least once in my life time, so I can be the pimp and upgrade from my ****ty tiptronic 996 turbo and finally get a decent set of italian wheels.

Toss,

Not only does a pylit deserve a 996 turbo for realz, or better yet, a 997 turbo, but I mean what's life worth if you can't roll on dem phat set of Asantis?

I don't know much
 

But I know there have been many flight schools closed down in the states in the past few years due to lack of demand. It's crazy to expect someone, even a flying fanatic like myself, to pay $100k US for a college degree plus another 60+ grand for a commercial ticket to get a $20,000 a year job. I don't think the majors will see the shortage for a while. Judging by student starts in the US this is going to be a problem in the coming years.

A UAL pilot I met on a flight back home recently, said that United will retire 1 pilot every 16 hour starting nov. 2012.....

letsfly,

that lower pilot graduation or participation in flight schools is also going to contribute to the shortage problem. The lack of new pilot students stems from various factors; more difficult for foreign students to gain access to US flight schools, airlines not hiring for the past 3 years, cost of training (as you state) and, current, low salary at entry-level regional or lower pilot positions (as you also speak about). Hence, less students with higher demand (see the US Today article that started this thread), fueled with higher retirement = a sort of pilot shortage.

I would say even before: since the Clement Ader first flight, or even back in time, since the Félix du Temple de la Croix first flight ;)


Concerning the article: Each time you see an article trying to make optimistic pilot hiring prediction for the next 20, 30, 40 or 50 years, it always mean we are at the top of the hiring cycle. Each time, it never fails. The only difference today: the top of the hiring cycle (from which everything will decrease...) is not that high this time... Rather low I would say...

Yes... 2011 already.
 

Sodapop From the "60s" to "the next 6 years", that's 57 years. Let's say 25 years old when hired by an "intercontinental" airline, it means the airline pilot will be 82 years old when he will retire... Forget either about the "60s", either about the "4-6 years from now", or maybe forget about both...

Vietnam war (1 million civilians/women/kids killed, rapped.. let's not forget): 1959/1975 (with most of the US troops removed BY 1973), From 1973 to "the next 6 years", that's 44 years... I guess most of the veterans have already retired, unless they all were 8 years old when they started the war... Don't count on them to produce a pilot shortage in the next 4-6 years...

The next 4-6 years? I would rather bet on a shortage of cheap fuel.


The looming pilot retirement is as "real" as the looming pilot shortage.

That's the full speech...