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pilot shortage

Old 25th Jun 2011, 07:33
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pilot shortage

Demand for airline pilots set to soar - USATODAY.com
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 07:42
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QF Boys

QF boys, might be time to dust of the CV's?
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 09:20
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Was that an advertisement?

QF SOs already joining Virgin.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 10:16
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"Market forces" as Mr.Tyler once said, may translate into better CoS'... (may)

b.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 12:25
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a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight. still haven't seen one !
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 13:16
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Stuckgear (or mic as the case may be),

Doubt if you were around with the W. Bros, but if you were a qualified pilot in the early 1930's when United and the boys really started growing then I'll be you would have been in high demand. The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years). This was still before the 1978 deregulation act in the US (good or bad depending on if you were a pilot, passenger, or aircraft manufacturer) The 1980s was a seesaw battle of hiring and laying off with the startup of new airlines and their subsequent failures/mergers. Add in "gentlemen" such as Frank Lorenzo and the terms and conditions for pilots slowly started to degrade. Nearly the entire decade of the 1990's saw soaring pilot hiring in the States. (albeit the latter year hires ended up getting furloughed after some idiots flew into buildings in New York). This is where Fedex, UPS, and Southwest had enormous expansion. (that's what she said )

Therefore, I would submit that there have been many pilot shortages and good times of pilot hirings. Ask some of the A scalers who were hired in the late 80's/early 90's. I suppose that your view only goes back 10-15 years and/or that you've never lived or don't currently live in the US.

Those who ignore history are.....ah never mind.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 13:44
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Therefore, I would submit that there have been many pilot shortages
Never in Australia, unfortunately. Traditionally there have always been far too many pilots for far few jobs and that will not change.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 14:02
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sodapop,

i guess you missed the element of sarcasm.

the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots
i understand from several friends who are Vietnam vets (both rotor and fixed wing) that following the Vietnam war every gas station attendant had a commercial licence. (again this is obviously a joke with sarcasm added)

though again, the previous post was also made with [sarcasm mode/on]

Those who ignore history are.....ah never mind.
couldn't agree with you more nad its a primary reason why the industry is in the state it's in.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 15:11
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I think most of the headlines should probably read "Demand for cheap, pay to fly,bonded,cadet pilots set to soar."
Sad but true.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 15:39
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Demand for cheap, pay to fly,bonded,cadet pilots set to soar.
This will obviously only apply to international carriers such as CX. With the recent FAA 1500 hour rule, there won't be any cadets flying part 121 in the US.

Never in Australia, unfortunately. Traditionally there have always been far too many pilots for far few jobs and that will not change.
Of course it won't change, due to few number of major cities in Australia and its relative distance from Europe and the US.

i guess you missed the element of sarcasm. "a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight. still haven't seen one !"
Call me humorless, but I fail to see any sarcasm in your post, hence my response. Kindly disregard if you should.

Last edited by sodapop; 25th Jun 2011 at 18:24.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 18:58
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Dear lord baby Jesus with your golden flowing hair .... please let the prediction of pilot shortage come true at least once in my life time, so I can be the pimp and upgrade from my shitty tiptronic 996 turbo and finally get a decent set of italian wheels.
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Old 25th Jun 2011, 23:06
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Toss,

Not only does a pylit deserve a 996 turbo for realz, or better yet, a 997 turbo, but I mean what's life worth if you can't roll on dem phat set of Asantis?
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Old 26th Jun 2011, 05:17
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I don't know much

But I know there have been many flight schools closed down in the states in the past few years due to lack of demand. It's crazy to expect someone, even a flying fanatic like myself, to pay $100k US for a college degree plus another 60+ grand for a commercial ticket to get a $20,000 a year job. I don't think the majors will see the shortage for a while. Judging by student starts in the US this is going to be a problem in the coming years.
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Old 26th Jun 2011, 13:43
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A UAL pilot I met on a flight back home recently, said that United will retire 1 pilot every 16 hour starting nov. 2012.....
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Old 26th Jun 2011, 16:19
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letsfly,

that lower pilot graduation or participation in flight schools is also going to contribute to the shortage problem. The lack of new pilot students stems from various factors; more difficult for foreign students to gain access to US flight schools, airlines not hiring for the past 3 years, cost of training (as you state) and, current, low salary at entry-level regional or lower pilot positions (as you also speak about). Hence, less students with higher demand (see the US Today article that started this thread), fueled with higher retirement = a sort of pilot shortage.
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Old 26th Jun 2011, 18:05
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a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight.
I would say even before: since the Clement Ader first flight, or even back in time, since the Félix du Temple de la Croix first flight


Concerning the article: Each time you see an article trying to make optimistic pilot hiring prediction for the next 20, 30, 40 or 50 years, it always mean we are at the top of the hiring cycle. Each time, it never fails. The only difference today: the top of the hiring cycle (from which everything will decrease...) is not that high this time... Rather low I would say...
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Old 26th Jun 2011, 19:04
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Yes... 2011 already.

Sodapop
The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years).
From the "60s" to "the next 6 years", that's 57 years. Let's say 25 years old when hired by an "intercontinental" airline, it means the airline pilot will be 82 years old when he will retire... Forget either about the "60s", either about the "4-6 years from now", or maybe forget about both...

Vietnam war (1 million civilians/women/kids killed, rapped.. let's not forget): 1959/1975 (with most of the US troops removed BY 1973), From 1973 to "the next 6 years", that's 44 years... I guess most of the veterans have already retired, unless they all were 8 years old when they started the war... Don't count on them to produce a pilot shortage in the next 4-6 years...

The next 4-6 years? I would rather bet on a shortage of cheap fuel.


The looming pilot retirement is as "real" as the looming pilot shortage.

Last edited by KAG; 26th Jun 2011 at 19:18.
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Old 26th Jun 2011, 19:10
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That's the full speech...

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Old 26th Jun 2011, 19:27
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There is also another 'elephant in the room' and that is the supply of flight crews from states that have lower living wages, which provides a lower cost pilot body for any airline.

Lets take for example the US, with a large number of carriers covering international routes with types that are also in use with carriers in low living wage countries, an airline as an employer has the capability of employing someone suitably rated and with time on type that enables the capacity for a lower cost pilot that has the requisite experience. the long short can invariably lead to a stagnation level for career development for US citizen pilots, who will be left picking up the jobs on regional and internal lo-co carriers, while the long term career prospect, the long haul and heavy aircraft flying on routes that can be crewed by destination locals.

of course this is just conjecture, however in a competitive market dominant forces are costs. and with the capacity to reduce those costs, its a simple equation of economics, however, here in western Europe this is already starting to occur with lower cost employees filling the shoes of the locals who *need* a higher wage to survive.

Now look at places like Mexico and some other countries.. want a commercial licence, you wont be getting one unless you are a citizen of that state. protectionism? well, yes it is.
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Old 26th Jun 2011, 21:11
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KAG

From the "60s" to "the next 6 years", that's 57 years. Let's say 25 years old when hired by an "intercontinental" airline, it means the airline pilot will be 82 years old when he will retire... Forget either about the "60s", either about the "4-6 years from now", or maybe forget about both...
Well, if you reread what I posted, Vietnam "era" pilots who left the military in the mid 70's are now approaching age 65. Even if a guy got out in 1970 he's only now approaching or has just reached age 65. It's not that difficult to do the math(s).

As to your remarks concerning the Vietnam was (conflict to be politically precise), I would say they have nothing to do with this post or forum. I will note that most involvement can be pinned on JFK and LBJ, both democrats whom are now remembered by their initials. How odd.

civilians/women/kids killed, rapped.. let's not forget
Women/kids "rapped". That happened in the late 80s/90s with LL Cool J and MC Hammer.

It is 2011, hence the retirements.
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