pilot shortage
 

QF Boys
 

QF boys, might be time to dust of the CV's?

Was that an advertisement?

QF SOs already joining Virgin.

"Market forces" as Mr.Tyler once said, may translate into better CoS'... (may)

b.

a pilot shortage is something that's been continually predicted since the wright brothers first flight. still haven't seen one ! :sad:

Stuckgear (or mic as the case may be),

Doubt if you were around with the W. Bros, but if you were a qualified pilot in the early 1930's when United and the boys really started growing then I'll be you would have been in high demand. The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years). This was still before the 1978 deregulation act in the US (good or bad depending on if you were a pilot, passenger, or aircraft manufacturer) The 1980s was a seesaw battle of hiring and laying off with the startup of new airlines and their subsequent failures/mergers. Add in "gentlemen" such as Frank Lorenzo and the terms and conditions for pilots slowly started to degrade. Nearly the entire decade of the 1990's saw soaring pilot hiring in the States. (albeit the latter year hires ended up getting furloughed after some idiots flew into buildings in New York). This is where Fedex, UPS, and Southwest had enormous expansion. (that's what she said :O)

Therefore, I would submit that there have been many pilot shortages and good times of pilot hirings. Ask some of the A scalers who were hired in the late 80's/early 90's. I suppose that your view only goes back 10-15 years and/or that you've never lived or don't currently live in the US.

Those who ignore history are.....ah never mind.

Never in Australia, unfortunately. Traditionally there have always been far too many pilots for far few jobs and that will not change.

sodapop,

i guess you missed the element of sarcasm.

i understand from several friends who are Vietnam vets (both rotor and fixed wing) that following the Vietnam war every gas station attendant had a commercial licence. (again this is obviously a joke with sarcasm added)

though again, the previous post was also made with [sarcasm mode/on]

couldn't agree with you more nad its a primary reason why the industry is in the state it's in.

I think most of the headlines should probably read "Demand for cheap, pay to fly,bonded,cadet pilots set to soar."
Sad but true.

This will obviously only apply to international carriers such as CX. With the recent FAA 1500 hour rule, there won't be any cadets flying part 121 in the US.

Of course it won't change, due to few number of major cities in Australia and its relative distance from Europe and the US.

Call me humorless, but I fail to see any sarcasm in your post, hence my response. Kindly disregard if you should.

Dear lord baby Jesus with your golden flowing hair .... please let the prediction of pilot shortage come true at least once in my life time, so I can be the pimp and upgrade from my ****ty tiptronic 996 turbo and finally get a decent set of italian wheels.

Toss,

Not only does a pylit deserve a 996 turbo for realz, or better yet, a 997 turbo, but I mean what's life worth if you can't roll on dem phat set of Asantis?

I don't know much
 

But I know there have been many flight schools closed down in the states in the past few years due to lack of demand. It's crazy to expect someone, even a flying fanatic like myself, to pay $100k US for a college degree plus another 60+ grand for a commercial ticket to get a $20,000 a year job. I don't think the majors will see the shortage for a while. Judging by student starts in the US this is going to be a problem in the coming years.

A UAL pilot I met on a flight back home recently, said that United will retire 1 pilot every 16 hour starting nov. 2012.....

letsfly,

that lower pilot graduation or participation in flight schools is also going to contribute to the shortage problem. The lack of new pilot students stems from various factors; more difficult for foreign students to gain access to US flight schools, airlines not hiring for the past 3 years, cost of training (as you state) and, current, low salary at entry-level regional or lower pilot positions (as you also speak about). Hence, less students with higher demand (see the US Today article that started this thread), fueled with higher retirement = a sort of pilot shortage.

I would say even before: since the Clement Ader first flight, or even back in time, since the Félix du Temple de la Croix first flight ;)


Concerning the article: Each time you see an article trying to make optimistic pilot hiring prediction for the next 20, 30, 40 or 50 years, it always mean we are at the top of the hiring cycle. Each time, it never fails. The only difference today: the top of the hiring cycle (from which everything will decrease...) is not that high this time... Rather low I would say...

Yes... 2011 already.
 

Sodapop From the "60s" to "the next 6 years", that's 57 years. Let's say 25 years old when hired by an "intercontinental" airline, it means the airline pilot will be 82 years old when he will retire... Forget either about the "60s", either about the "4-6 years from now", or maybe forget about both...

Vietnam war (1 million civilians/women/kids killed, rapped.. let's not forget): 1959/1975 (with most of the US troops removed BY 1973), From 1973 to "the next 6 years", that's 44 years... I guess most of the veterans have already retired, unless they all were 8 years old when they started the war... Don't count on them to produce a pilot shortage in the next 4-6 years...

The next 4-6 years? I would rather bet on a shortage of cheap fuel.


The looming pilot retirement is as "real" as the looming pilot shortage.

That's the full speech...

There is also another 'elephant in the room' and that is the supply of flight crews from states that have lower living wages, which provides a lower cost pilot body for any airline.

Lets take for example the US, with a large number of carriers covering international routes with types that are also in use with carriers in low living wage countries, an airline as an employer has the capability of employing someone suitably rated and with time on type that enables the capacity for a lower cost pilot that has the requisite experience. the long short can invariably lead to a stagnation level for career development for US citizen pilots, who will be left picking up the jobs on regional and internal lo-co carriers, while the long term career prospect, the long haul and heavy aircraft flying on routes that can be crewed by destination locals.

of course this is just conjecture, however in a competitive market dominant forces are costs. and with the capacity to reduce those costs, its a simple equation of economics, however, here in western Europe this is already starting to occur with lower cost employees filling the shoes of the locals who *need* a higher wage to survive.

Now look at places like Mexico and some other countries.. want a commercial licence, you wont be getting one unless you are a citizen of that state. protectionism? well, yes it is.

KAG
 

Well, if you reread what I posted, Vietnam "era" pilots who left the military in the mid 70's are now approaching age 65. Even if a guy got out in 1970 he's only now approaching or has just reached age 65. It's not that difficult to do the math(s).

As to your remarks concerning the Vietnam was (conflict to be politically precise), I would say they have nothing to do with this post or forum. I will note that most involvement can be pinned on JFK and LBJ, both democrats whom are now remembered by their initials. How odd.

Women/kids "rapped". That happened in the late 80s/90s with LL Cool J and MC Hammer.

It is 2011, hence the retirements.

stuck
 

you must have US citizenship or a green card to work for a US company, so hiring destination locals doesn't work.

incorrect. if you are living and working in the US. Do all the locals that work at oil and gas sites around the world for US companies have green cards ? or the mulitudes of bank staff in the city of london working for US banks and investment groups have green cards ?

no they dont, i have friends who do both for US companies and I can ssure you they do not nor are they entitled to one.

NB: i have also worked for a US company.

For a US airline company you do. Thought we were discussing pilot jobs not gas station employees or bank workers who work for the UK branch of Merrill Lynch or whomever. Obviously, baggage handlers, ticket sales, check-in workers are locally employed via a local contract handled through nation-to-nation labor rules.

Unless the airline forms an international branch which, to my knowledge, none have. Happy to hear of any examples of hiring local (non-US or non Green Card holder) pilots and basing them at the destination. Possibly Fedex with the Hkg base but all the guys I know who fly for Fedex out of Hkg are yanks.

Plus, doubt if the US pilot unions would allow it regardless.

ah now there is a difference ! the dominant European pilot representative bodies are about as useful as a wet fart on a dry day!

Dusting off the CV.

Off topic, any recommendations for a HKG AME?

correct apart from the German VC (whom I've worked with) and perhaps the French.


Dr Frank O'tremba at Dr Vaio & partners TST
2369 3329 or [email protected]


Cheers

European age limit now going to "subject to medical"!

Why, were guys allowed to fly without a medical certificate? Just more European bureaucracy adding more words where common sense would dictate.

It's always been "subject to medical" my friend. Even if you're much younger than 60-65.

sodapop. To make it clear, there is not going to be an upper age limit (i'm sure you had actually figured that out). The only determining factor for retirement will be medical. Will happen here in HK as well in time.

Sodapop.....
You are absolutely right.... There was no RAPE or murder in Vietnam, it was all singing, dancing and happiness......a la MC Hammer et al.

The Wraith
 

I've said it before and i'll paste it again....

http://pics.livejournal.com/twoflower/pic/00023gph


Just having a go at the spelling mate. Sorry your relatives were harmed in some way. I'm sure the southern Vietnamese thank you for you concern.

And, once again, please keep the political sh>>t off this forum, dude.

And, another and, nice try impressing people with your latin comprehension (et al). And, yes another and, do you completely and sincerely understand what happened in SE Asia? Please feel free to PM me if you'd care to debate the subject. Otherwise, continue to refer to the above pasted link.

Or, perhaps start a thread entitled "Dr Strangelove or How I learned to love the bomb" or some such drivel.


I.E. Have a nice day.

... it's hammer time....

Fellows,
The only decent starting wage for high time, willing to risk it all widebody left seater is in China, as what most of us should know by now. And the only reason why that is so, is simply because the respective airline management has set aside budget for hiring expatriates in fixed RMB terms. The payscale seems to be rising, as what some agencies would have claimed, is due to the fact that RMB is appreciating accordingly. Absolute RMB budget allocated has not risen, but is most likely to be among the first few to do so. The rest of the world in FAR EAST, are just having a wait and see attitude. NO ONE, wants to be the "bad boy" elevating the benchmark in order to protect their ever insatiable appetite for higher operating profit margin.

I have worked for too many majors and I dare put my arguments along the side that the pay raise, due acute pilot shortages, will NEVER come about. The long overdue pay increase if come about to most big boys' clubs, will merely offset the rise in living cost, adjusted for inflation. Just look at what has happened to QR with their recent pay increase, and what should be happening to EK, KE, and hopefully CX, SQ etc.

I for once, would love to be proven wrong. Nonetheless, looking at the number of cheap cadets in the baking from South East Asia, low wage pilots from Europe and both North South America, I seriously won't hold my breath on any miracle.

Are you freaking kidding me. There was little hiring in the 90s. Hiring didn't really start until 98 and ran till 01 and then the bottom really dropped out.
The only shortage is of guys willing to work at abysmally low wages at the entry levels of this biz. Unfortunately entry level now extends out about 10 yrs.

After the first Gulf War, most military pilots who got out were able to secure a major airline job. Sorry if you didn't have the experience to get hired. This was from 91-93. Even Northwest hired a bunch.

From 96-2000 all major airlines were hiring. Hence, about 50+ guys I know were hired by Southwest alone.

Again, my condolences mate.

PS: isn't 98 part of the 90s?

Dude,
 

Is this a typo or sarcasm?

Touched a nerve Sodapop?
Silly me to question the outright authority of the American mentality and their Foreign Policy!:ok:
PS. Only an American would post a picture with a saying as stupid as "How about a nice big cup of shut the f**k up"!!:ugh:

Sodapop:It's forbidden on PPRune to say "I am wrong", or "true, you have a point", or "maybe I exagerated a bit", I give you that. This is the PPrune community, nobody is wrong ever.
Okay, so concerning your "60s-70s" era, it seems you only take into account the mid 70 part now... Your "era" seems a bit reduced. So I agree, if you speak about a very young vet retiring from Vietnam in 1975 (remember the vietnam war that's mainly 59/73) in his early 20s, yes this guy will be ready to retire pretty soon, sure. So that's the plan to see the looming pilot shortage coming??? What you don't seem to realize, or don't want to see for whatever reason is that most of the airline pilots hired in the 60s-70s are already retired (in 2000/2010), yet you are telling us they will retire in 4-6 years, creating a big pilot shortage in the future. Come back to earth. Let's read again what you wrote initially:The 1960's into the mid-70s saw high hiring with the advent of intercontinental flights (B747 etc) and the hiring of many ex-Vietnam era pilots (the very ones who are starting to retire which should create a strong need for pilots for the next 4-6 years).







You said:Ok you want to make fun about the million of vietnamese civilians mudered, killed, raped, women/kid included. I am telling you something: it's everything but not funny, you do have a weird humour.

Question for you sodapop: for example, who did that, when, what happened in this picture below? (clue: it happened in Vietnam)

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-S...i_massacre.jpg



You found it? Ok here is the answer: picture from a mass murder of 347–504 unarmed citizens in South Vietnam on March 16, 1968, conducted by a unit of the United States Army. All of the victims were civilians and most were women, children (including babies), and elderly people. Many of the victims were raped, beaten, tortured, and some of the bodies were found mutilated.

Others picture available if you like. Remember, most of the times there were no piture to witness the rapes...

Kag and Wraith,

Please feel free to go to a non-pilot forum to express your views concerning Vietnam. In fact, it would be kind of the moderator of this forum to eliminate any posts regarding political views such as your on a thread which discusses pilot shortage. I'm sure Jane Fonda is available to listen to your views, however. My posting of the link to the coffee shut up was due to the fact that anything regarding these views has no place on this thread or forum, IMHO.


When I made reference to the Vietnam era pilots it was regarding the initial article attached to this thread about the upcoming retirement of many pilots in US major airlines. Perhaps I should have specified which year group is retiring soon but I thought the math would be easy enough to calculate. "Vietnam-era pilots" (NOT "Vietnam vet")also refers to guys that got out in the late 70s but were in the military (or civilian pilots even) during the conflict time frame. That said, pilots from the 60s also were able to secure airline jobs at a decent rate for the reasons previously stated. If you read the post by Poydras regarding UA pilots retiring at the rate he specified you should see that it is happening and going to continue to happen. If you choose not to believe it then so be it.


PS: I personally know the US Army captain who was in charge of Lt Calley at My Lai. It's interesting to hear how things went wrong. Notice I said wrong. No where in any of my posts have I said anything about the conflict being good or correct. I have not stated any political view concerning it. Perhaps, I should not have made a joke of the word ''rapped" and I hereby apologize for making you think a reference to MC Hammer had anything to do with Vietnam (because it doesn't). I also stand by the fact that I never brought up anything about the conflict other than using the term "VIetnam-Era Pilots). Have either of you ever been in battle? Please let us all know where you're from so we can discuss your country's foreign policy. But, alas, the Wraith is nomadic and KAG is an "expat" who has abandoned his country. Let's get on with the real gist of this thread please.