Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Base Closures

Old 15th May 2021, 17:17
  #101 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: HK-CRoC
Posts: 687
90% ???

90% of intra NZ 'business" travel that is.. Corporate BS at its best.
Carriers world over spouting the same crap trying to prop up a long term major reduction in ALL travel to keep gullible shareholders from dumping their stock..
No matter which way you look at the airline world & travel; you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear, PERIOD!
Flex88 is offline  
Old 16th May 2021, 06:18
  #102 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: The Forbidden City
Posts: 0
NC, while I admire your optimism, speculation and Einstein numbers, there is a line between the real world and lah lah land.

What Drc40 and others said, CXi ‘s gripes started a few years ago already, long before the china scamdemic, it’s all political and pressure from LCCs.

HKIA as a hub worked fine for CXi over the past decades, but that ship has sailed too. Direct flights from the mainland to wherever is the future.

Looking at who will be flying CXi in the future, if 40% of expats (in a recent survey) are talking about leaving the HKSAR - national security law concerns, that only leaves us with some cheap local tours around the “Rice Bowl” and that’s where HK Expresso comes in handy. But hold on: GBA (and possibly more players) will debut soon, so there goes that monopoly plan up in smoke too - again the pressure from LCCs.

Even a company like PAL has seen the writing on the wall, and started a major restructuring plan.

Philippine Airlines Seeks To Cut Boeing 777 And Airbus A350 Fleet
https://simpleflying.com/philippine-...es-cuts-fleet/

What CXi needs to do is to grow HKE, get rid of all 777s, cancel future orders, keep a few “A50s” to serve a handful of money making cities, and expand the cargo ops. With my primary school math: Fewer aeroplanes = fewer pilots.

The few changes CXi “management” have done until now, it might already be too little - too late.
Curry Lamb is offline  
Old 16th May 2021, 06:46
  #103 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: HKG
Posts: 299
Its not about COVID

COVID has been a gift for CX. All airlines are crippled and they can force POS18 on to the pilots. POS18 is a LCC style of contract (not really a contract as everything is company policy).

The base closures gives them POS18 forced on to the based pilots and allows them to terminate all those who chose not to return to HKG or "can not" because they can't get work visas - another win for the company.

As the full effect of POS18 (no housing) comes into effect many will sell up and leave, the shedding of the based pilots will cut numbers further.

Business travel will return - no one spends serious money without face to face time with the other party. The great unwashed down in EY will also return.

It won't be long before those who are left are working flat out, all on POS18. This is why the investors were so keen to pick up the bond offering. CX wins again.
controlledrest is offline  
Old 16th May 2021, 07:13
  #104 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: UK
Age: 50
Posts: 0
poydras

Well there you go. Your mate just proved that going forward business travel will not increase by 50% to pre pandemic levels. As in the past they would have flown out for the whining and dining, sorry “preliminary approach” and then again for the signing. Now they only have to do the latter.

Any way you look at it of course business travel is going to resume, but it is never going to get anywhere close to the levels it was at before.
highflyer40 is offline  
Old 16th May 2021, 11:58
  #105 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Hong Kong, SAR.
Posts: 164
Never say never. Over time, business travel has only increased and you can expect that , after an initial pullback, it will start increasing above the pre-covid levels.

If you are negotiating a multi-million dollar deal, you need be in that room.
If there is a problem, you want to be in that room.
If you need to exert pressure, you have to be in that room.
You can't get those subtle clues from someone while the are not looking in your eyes.
Oasis is offline  
Old 16th May 2021, 21:06
  #106 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: HK-CRoC
Posts: 687
In the Room ??

You mean like "in the room" when the Swire Princeling morons signed "face to face" for the fuel hedging contracts that evaporated ~ 5 BILLION USD in profits or do mean
"face to face" like when the Swire Princes negotiated to decrease HUNDREDS of MILLIONS in fines over the last 20 years for cheating ?
Or perhaps you mean "face to face" like when the London & HK Swire morons were scheming and colluding to "score big" on fuel hedging and rigging cargo prices scams that, like it or not, have led to the near death experience that CX faces today ?
The Princelings with their purported Midas touch anointed by HQ or promoted from within thence unleashed on the Swire empire turn out in the end ( CX case) to have the Medusa effect.. oops.
Flex88 is offline  
Old 17th May 2021, 00:34
  #107 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: HK
Posts: 31
However, many deals and issues have been dealt with over the last year without people being in the same room... Did CX and Boeing need to be in the same room to delay the 777X orders?
Freehills is offline  
Old 17th May 2021, 06:05
  #108 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 1999
Location: Runcorn,Cheshire,England
Posts: 115
How do you have a large conference on zoom? How do companies display their product? How can you taste food? Sit in a new car or boat etc?
Business travel isn’t just some suit travelling to sign a contract, it’s so much more than that. Yes zoom, will have a place but airlines will adapt and won’t really care who sits in the comfy seats, as long as their paying for it who cares?
as for the melon talking about Concorde above, any volunteers for hitting him with his own dumb stick? Pretty sure no one cared about telecommunications on those LHR-BGI flights we used to do. Maybe the years have clouded my brain but I recall it was more the fact it couldn’t go supersonic over land so was heavily restricted on the routes it could fly to turn a profit. That and after the french went and crashed one, the increased weight due to the modifications in the wing tanks made it more challenging to reach JFK westbound in one go.
3Greens is offline  
Old 17th May 2021, 14:33
  #109 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,728
There will still be some business travel but nowhere near pre covid numbers . The world has adapted,deals are still being done . Business travel, if really required, will be in Y+ class. Cost cutting was needed badly this past year and as stated shareholders will want to recover at all costs !
fatbus is offline  
Old 17th May 2021, 16:06
  #110 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: On a few nerves apparently
Posts: 86
None of this matters. Unless you're already resigned with the fact that your current employer (if it's cathay) is below zero credibility level as an employer and you must find a new job outside hk (because as cx has proved by legal precedence) that the employment contract you sign in hk isn't worth the toilet paper you're signing it on... it does matter at all if cathay or hk business comes back after covid or not... it doesn't matter at all anymore if business travel or any travel comes back here.

Seriously... are you people still in.denial?!
VforVENDETTA is offline  
Old 17th May 2021, 19:03
  #111 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Great White North of the 49th
Posts: 69
dctPub

Good for ANZ but I would suspect it's a minuscule blip in the world impact of business travel. Especially in Euro and US. There are many anecdotal reports of companies making permanent changes to their business travel budgets. Certainly not eliminating it completely but it stands to reason some long term effects will happen. I've personally talked to dozens of business travel decision makers and I can count on 3 fingers those who said they'll be back to 100% pre COVId levels. The bean counters and management have had a one year test run and it's been a resounding success.
Drc40 is offline  
Old 17th May 2021, 19:30
  #112 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Hong Kong, SAR.
Posts: 164
Some depressed, gloomy people over here.

Oasis is offline  
Old 17th May 2021, 21:08
  #113 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: On a few nerves apparently
Posts: 86
Some delusional people here.
VforVENDETTA is offline  
Old 18th May 2021, 11:47
  #114 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Great White North of the 49th
Posts: 69
Numero Crunchero

Not wanting to debate the other hyperbolic points but not sure where you're getting US numbers. They are NOT anywhere near actual 2019 levels or forecasted to be or even close to 90%. The best days they are having are in the 60-70% range with heaviest days being Sundays. ie Not Business! Which is where the real $$$ are needed for airlines.
Drc40 is offline  
Old 18th May 2021, 23:06
  #115 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 1,281
Airfares are usually based on last years +/- a few percent, setting these fares as travel picks up will be very difficult as the environment will have completely changed. Expect a few wild swings as things settle down. I’m interested to see how much of a premium airlines will be able to change for business over economy. Normally it’s about 3x the price, with flights into New York up to 5x and flights into Bangkok down to 2x.

As business travel will take longer to recover I would expect to see cheaper fares in this cabin but more expensive in economy as airlines try to recover the loss of revenue. At the end of the day it all comes down to supply and demand, with the bean counters trying to maximise the income from each flight.
krismiler is offline  
Old 19th May 2021, 01:17
  #116 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Nippi
Posts: 240
They said the same stuff last time about travel. Blah blah blah. Travel rebounded even stronger. Same will happen this time.
DropKnee is offline  
Old 19th May 2021, 01:50
  #117 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 40
Yes it will, just not in HKG.
Busbuoy is offline  
Old 19th May 2021, 05:11
  #118 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Great White North of the 49th
Posts: 69
Exactly. I understand the reluctance in accepting difficult outcomes because it's painful. This has become clearer every day/week/month. Right in front of us. HK, CLK and CX are all impacted and for the worse. It royally sucks because HK (and CX) have been great for many of us. This city was the center of the universe only rivaled by New York. Of course it isn't "ending" but the vib is tarnished, the allure diminished and everything else just aligns with ChiComm. Ugh
Drc40 is offline  
Old 19th May 2021, 05:48
  #119 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Hong Kong, SAR.
Posts: 164
Hong Kong doesnít need free elections or even free speech in order to be a significant financial hub.

It is a real shame what has happened over the past two years, but it wonít necessarily affect business and itís travel in the long term.

Singapore isnít a free country, Beijing and Shanghai arenít free, so itís not a requirement for money to flow.

one thing is for certain, there will be a lot of hkg-lhr flights in the years ahead.
Oasis is offline  
Old 19th May 2021, 08:25
  #120 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: England
Posts: 591
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...nses-8w6k98lnt

Kitsune is offline  

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