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Smaller aircraft on the horizon PERHAPS

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Smaller aircraft on the horizon PERHAPS

Old 7th Oct 2020, 02:45
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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The cx groups recovery will be lead by China, Following that, Asia in general. Initially narrow bodies will make sense but not long term, as the capability for the majority of cx’s network is not there. I imagine the article refers to smaller wide bodies.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 03:42
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fly1981 View Post
The cx groups recovery will be lead by China, Following that, Asia in general. Initially narrow bodies will make sense but not long term, as the capability for the majority of cx’s network is not there. I imagine the article refers to smaller wide bodies.
Unfortunately, The Swire Group only knows and has only ever deployed one method of coping with a crisis, "cuts". Each department will be told to cut by 20-30% regardless of their value and need. The airline will shrink by 20-30% overnight and the managers will be able to say that costs have dropped. But this time around that will not suffice. A total restructuring will be needed. This means some departments will not be needed at all and others will need increasing. A total restructure means a total rethink of how the airline works. Top to Toe dictatorships, masonic led flight ops teams, golf buddy engineering teams,fear driven ISD will need dismantling. The problem employees face is that The Swire Group doesn't have the capacity or will to do this. So the restructuring we will see shortly will be "cuts" disguised by clever words but the operating system will remain the same. Unfortunately, this is now obsolete. When the big investors see this they will pull the plug. The proof is that of all the major airlines in the world only The CX Group has not uttered a word of what they will do. This isn't because they have found the secret to survival and the others haven't. It's because they don't have any new plan just dusting off the Swire Answer "CUTS" and hope for the best.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 04:03
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Baseless and entirely speculative blaming of management for a global pandemic and complete breakdown of demand is just silly.

Those who complain about waiting for decisions don't see the dynamic and ever changing nature of the current situation. It also complacently disregards ties and obligations that come with the capital injections and wage subsidies by the Hong Kong government. And while some moan out of retirement on PPRuNe, Swire successfully negotiated and received this state support, a first in the history of Hong Kong. Without this vital help, Cathay would be dead as we speak.

Whatever any airline decided yesterday might be invalid tomorrow. There is no definite answer or final "restructuring". Restructuring to what? To which scenario? After the decision is before the decision.The idea we are the only ones deliberately kept in the dark is a misconception. Every airline on the planet is constantly re-evaluating the situation, whether they laid off yet or not. Any day can bring new decisions and surprises, regardless of past announcements, at every airline. The security and assurances you expect are not available, nowhere.If you don't believe me have a read of the other forums, e.g. ME or BA.

I personally take waiting while getting paid before being laid off three months ago anytime, thank you very much.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 7th Oct 2020 at 06:19.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 04:53
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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With regards to blaming management, I'm second to that. It's not that they don't know what they are doing or can't do their jobs per say, but its the time frame and how they have dealt with things which shows poor management. In order for any company to survive and thrive they must act quickly and decisively when things go bad.. CX have just sat on their hands and been very sheepish, and in doing so have lost billions. Yes the board makes the final choice, but management will put recommendations to the board.

Then comes the "plus we are one of the very few getting paid for it while waiting" that is inherently the problem, its costing CX billions to keep staff around doing nothing. Would you as a business owner keep staff on who are doing nothing? No. Hell we don't even keep our helpers on when they do nothing. Aircraft will go (have gone) pilots, engineers, cabin crew, training, management, catering, etc etc will all trickle down and have to go to.

I don't see CX changing their fleet to some smaller aircraft, they have no money. HKE and the likes will do that just fine. Maybe they should just join all their airlines together under one "Cathay" banner. I suppose when this announcement to the pilots comes, it will be on Friday at 5pm so you can't email back and complain, and the management have left the building and everyone's at the pub!
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 05:00
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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You ignore the political context.

Cathay is not paying our wages, the Hong Kong government does.

Cathay is not losing, quite the opposite. The deal with the government saved the company.

PS I actually do keep my helper even I don't need her right now. I think it is the decent thing to do.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 7th Oct 2020 at 06:16.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 05:37
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Guess the company should keep all unnecessary pilots too, hey it’s the decent thing to do.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 06:06
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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The HK government does not pay your wages / the subsidy from the HK government ran out long ago
CX are hemorrhaging money
And a lot of people got rid of their helpers to cut costs

It's always nice to sit around doing nothing and getting paid, hey who wouldn't sign up for that, but can we please be logical about this, it's not sustainable in any business. I haven't flown in months, still getting paid, but if they retrench me well it's not like I didn't see it coming, and I can fully understand it from a business point of view. When aircraft don't fly we get rid of them, same for staff members.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 07:15
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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I did not claim the current situation was sustainable, nor did I say nobody laid off their helper. I said I don't lay off mine because I think it would be wrong.

This is not The Apprentice Show, this is real life and real families are affected. I am stunned you are basically asking the company to lay off fellow pilots or their helpers. I find your statements cynical.

Your claim that state support has run out is incorrect. The company struck a deal, and a very important one. Without that deal we would not have this discussion, we would be all busy packing. Part of that vital and cleverly brokered deal, without prescedence in the history of Hong Kong, was not to lay off, for the moment. It baffles me how it is so difficult to understand and accept political implications as part of state intervention.

The waiting is unpleasant, I get it. But read the comments on the forums concerning employers who already started to lay off.You will notice those not affected are still anxious, and those who have been laid off are desperate. How is that better compared to our situation?

Your desire for a final and reliable answer from management is not available, nobody can give you that security right now.

There is no such thing as a definite restructuring, at any airline, as long there is no vaccine. It will continue to be a very umcomfortable ride, regardless of any future announcements.



Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 7th Oct 2020 at 07:38.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 07:49
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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I think the word is “ right sizing “ not “downsizing”...downsizing has never been used by the company. There is a difference.
Company wants to save as much money as possible and making a few thousand pilots redundant and having to pay them off will not save the company money .
they don’t want to be caught when things pick up and have to rehire/retrain , I optimistically see will be voluntarily unpaid or some sort of salary reduction scheme.
If the airplanes don’t fly , they don’t make money. They need pilots. And this Covid is just temporary.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 08:37
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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This is all taking so long, that we will likely be out of Covid territory, if we still have money left.
I think this may be a case of Hong Kong style leadership by consensus, and not very decisive in the short term.
I hope this will not go down in the history books as the airline that was the deer caught in the headlight.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 11:16
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Most of you are right, for various reasons I suppose. But this is a fast moving situation and no airline can even look a week ahead, let alone plan for the medium or long term.

CX is screwed because of massive incompetence and ineptitude. We all saw the writing on the wall years ago, and the fuel hedging debacle just put the icing on the cake.

We work for the biggest collection of muppets in the management/airline industry, and they can no longer rest on their laurels, sadly.

I see a massive swipe coming across in terms of redundancy, and cuts to Ts and Cs like housing. Because that's all they can think to do.

I suppose they've tried to be clever, waiting for the long awaited opening of the border to the trash up north, but that isn't happening. And since we rely so heavily on transits and long haul, we're screwed, just like Emirates.

Until Dragon gets back on it's feet, flying up north. Until then, it's going to be a blood bath.

Last edited by Flying Clog; 7th Oct 2020 at 16:39.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 14:25
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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I think these last two posts are the most accurate ones I have ever read on this site. CX management have not reacted quickly enough, and until China opens up nothing can save this company. 3 months ago CX should have let go 25% of its pilots, now its more like 50%. Shared pain through special leave and reduced salaries is not going to help, massive cuts are the only panacea.
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 23:46
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Listening to pilots discuss how they would fire/slash T&Cs is like watching cows at the abattoir discussing which cut of meat is juiciest and which bit the butcher should slice off first...


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Old 7th Oct 2020, 23:57
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 01:14
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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But he gets to fly a shiny jet!!!
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 01:17
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AQIS Boigu View Post
My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈


Race to the bottom it is then.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 02:00
  #37 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Shoebox View Post


Race to the bottom it is then.
Hong Kong Express doesn't have the contractual history and backing of unions like that of Cathay. They were always a small Chinese run company on narrow body jet aircraft. They never had the crew complement to be able to increase pay to the levels of the big players. People I know in the company are proud to have had their time on the Embraer and move upwards to the Boeing and Airbus. I say good for them, they have given their loyalty and have been rewarded. Not everyone cares about flying a wide body, some people enjoy family life at home every night.

I must say that your friend should be ashamed for being proud to be the cheapest but he cannot help his level of pay. It is just a carry over from the mainland owners who would have removed anyone for thinking they could have higher remuneration.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 03:23
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AQIS Boigu View Post
My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈
A good month at HKE is better than bad month at CX on COS18, just ask any that joined CX from HKE. KA must have COS18 crews who will be the same. It'll all come down to the monthly hours and rostering which will eventually be the JCP/JCR system for all.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 03:26
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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I don’t think they have had a clue and don’t think they have a clue at this point. Perhaps they will have one in a month or two and how to handle the various contracts without breaching them where it counts.

I do know that all of this is simple conjecture at this point and most are getting paid something. So maybe better to stash that money away for whatever might happen.

I also know from what I read here that there are several with a very bright future ahead—regardless of the WuFlu world. Simply bottle up whatever it is you’re apparently smoking when you come up with these ideas and market it in a venue like California.

You’ll make zillions.

Last edited by Slasher1; 9th Oct 2020 at 13:58.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 10:18
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
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Originally Posted by AQIS Boigu View Post
My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈
Your mate needs to have a long hard think about that !
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