Retirement figures?

[Sam Ting Wong]

Has anyone some reliable data regarding upcoming CX retirements in the coming years? I once saw a table but can't find it anymore.
Cheers

[betpump5]

11 A340s and a few more 747s

[GTC58]

Its on the AOA forum. Based on pilots retiring at 65. The numbers should be slightly better as some pilots did not sign over to COS08 and have to retire at 55.

Year Number of retirements
2011 5
2012 8
2013 11
2014 12
2015 20
2016 27
2017 20
2018 24
2019 44
2020 58
2021 53
2022 51
2023 58
2024 57
2025 58
2026 47
2027 70
2028 62
2029 73
2030 76
2031 81
2032 101
2033 129
2034 137
2035 132
2036 148
2037 125
2038 110
2039 104
2040 95
2041 75
2042 77
2043 77
2044 57
2045 46
2046 42
2047 28
2048 23
2049 8
2050 19
2051 6
2052 2
2053 3
2054 1

[OK4Wire]

Interesting.

30% of the retirements will come from underneath me on the seniority list.

[positionalpor]

Had a chat with a bus skipper last week.He is 62 and will Be gone by January.

[Will IB Fayed]

Great, so by my reckoning, I get a command in 2038! Oh wait, there I am retiring in 2040.....

[Sam Ting Wong]

Thanks, GTC

[boxjockey]

As of right now, command is at just over 12 years.

box

[bellcrank88]

Command

GTC, thanks for the numbers.

So you can all now make your own predictions.

Here is how I would do it. (based on retirements to 2030)

S - your FO seniority number (number of future Captains ahead of you)
N = number of new aircraft per year CX will add (not replace, but add, your best guess)
E = early, years before 65 that people will retire ( if on average you think old farts will leave at 63,use 2)

Y = Years to Command = (S/(53.2+N*7)) -E

A few sample predictions.

S N E Y
500 0 0 9.4
500 3 2 6.9
500 3 4 4.9
500 6 2 6.4
500 3 6 2.9
1000 0 0 18.8
1000 3 0 17.8
1000 3 3 14.8
1500 0 0 28.2
1500 2 2 25.2
1500 2 4 23.2
1500 4 6 20.2

Use your head. How do you think it will work out for you?

If you are in the 15-25 years to command, there will be more retirements after 2030, so use:

Y = Years to Command = (S/(78.4+N*7)) -E

Of course not factored in is CX screwing up so badly that everyone leaves, and CX gets the crew they deserve.

BC

[Will IB Fayed]

It must be snowing in Canada....

[RusCo]

boxjockey As of right now, command is at just over 12 years.

box

Not quite. I am at 12 years, 8 months and have yet to be assessed. Was told to expect starchamber jan/feb then if I am good enough, a course 3 months later which will put me at over 13 years....now that all depends if they decide to continue commands or if they will focus on s/o and s/o upgrades.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Correct, it is currently 13 years plus. Anyway, it's just historical data, not helpful in predicting future numbers.

Take this: subtract the currently needed seniority number for command from your own. Then divide this number by 70 or 80, because that is pretty much the max number of Captains Cathay's training system seems to be able to produce in a year ( remember the small detail of a necessity to actually pass a course).

[OK4Wire]

Great algo, Bellcrank! But as STW says, you need to put in a modifier for the max number of command courses that can be done. I don't think we have ever done more than 90 per year, and certainly the average is probably closer to 70 (over the past 2 decades).

[Ex Douglas Driver]

Approx 13.5 years for a 777 command (backlog from declined airbus slots?), yet it's around 12 years for an Airbus slot.

Have a look around the 1100 numbers on the FO seniority list: Lots of HKG 777 FOs waiting, but very few Airbus (as they've been promoted already, or are on a base and aren't moving).

[Cpt. Underpants]

the average is probably closer to 70 (over the past 2 decades

I would guess the average is closer to about 30 per annum over the past two decades. The last three or four years have been a bit of an historical anomaly.

In the early 90's we were seeing fewer than 12 a year, even before ASL (gag) reared it's mangy head.

[Max Reheat]

Can't disagree with you Capt Underpants, but as the Company grows so does the training department and consequently so does it's capacity to train.

Planning have just announced a requirement for 40 ish new trainers on the 777 and 52 new trainers on the Airbus, along with 20ish more STCs (on the Bus alone). I don't think we have 20 TC/TCC to upgrade!!!

Apparently they were only told last Friday about 50 new Airbusses arriving over the next couple of years, they were completely blindsided by that little nugget!

[asianeagle]

Apparently they were only told last Friday about 50 new Airbusses arriving over the next couple of years, they were completely blindsided by that little nugget!

bwahaha ….sometimes I wonder

[4 driver]

Also need to factor in the number of based FO's who will not return to HK for their Command due to an absence of CN base slots.
This is a relatively new phenomenon as historically there were always bases available, and rarely did one turn down a Command.

[Arfur Dent]

4 Driver has hit the nail on the head. There are many, many based FO's (into 3 figures I hear) who will stay on their bases where their children are settled at School and Mrs FO has no intention of moving from nice house to a sh*thole in the smog. Where else in the world do you have to upsticks and move half way around the world just to get a perfectly normal promotion?
As I've said before, this is the ticking time bomb along with recruiting people on rubbish terms who will leave and get a proper job elsewhere. Well done Cathay - very smart and forward thinking.

[Sam Ting Wong]

I think this is wishful thinking of some junior F/O's with all respect. Only a small number of F/O's go down that route.

What I wonder: what will happen if US bases open up in significant numbers ( NY has 5 flights a day..). Will that result in fast track commands for elligible candidates??