Command
GTC, thanks for the numbers.
So you can all now make your own predictions.
Here is how I would do it. (based on retirements to 2030)
S - your FO seniority number (number of future Captains ahead of you)
N = number of new aircraft per year CX will add (not replace, but add, your best guess)
E = early, years before 65 that people will retire ( if on average you think old farts will leave at 63,use 2)
Y = Years to Command = (S/(53.2+N*7)) -E
A few sample predictions.
S N E Y
500 0 0 9.4
500 3 2 6.9
500 3 4 4.9
500 6 2 6.4
500 3 6 2.9
1000 0 0 18.8
1000 3 0 17.8
1000 3 3 14.8
1500 0 0 28.2
1500 2 2 25.2
1500 2 4 23.2
1500 4 6 20.2
Use your head. How do you think it will work out for you?
If you are in the 15-25 years to command, there will be more retirements after 2030, so use:
Y = Years to Command = (S/(78.4+N*7)) -E
Of course not factored in is CX screwing up so badly that everyone leaves, and CX gets the crew they deserve.
BC
Last edited by bellcrank88; 7th Nov 2014 at 07:58.