Retirement figures?
Has anyone some reliable data regarding upcoming CX retirements in the coming years? I once saw a table but can't find it anymore.
Cheers |
11 A340s and a few more 747s :}
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Its on the AOA forum. Based on pilots retiring at 65. The numbers should be slightly better as some pilots did not sign over to COS08 and have to retire at 55.
Year Number of retirements 2011 5 2012 8 2013 11 2014 12 2015 20 2016 27 2017 20 2018 24 2019 44 2020 58 2021 53 2022 51 2023 58 2024 57 2025 58 2026 47 2027 70 2028 62 2029 73 2030 76 2031 81 2032 101 2033 129 2034 137 2035 132 2036 148 2037 125 2038 110 2039 104 2040 95 2041 75 2042 77 2043 77 2044 57 2045 46 2046 42 2047 28 2048 23 2049 8 2050 19 2051 6 2052 2 2053 3 2054 1 |
Interesting.
30% of the retirements will come from underneath me on the seniority list. |
Had a chat with a bus skipper last week.He is 62 and will Be gone by January.
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Great, so by my reckoning, I get a command in 2038! Oh wait, there I am retiring in 2040.....:rolleyes:
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Thanks, GTC
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As of right now, command is at just over 12 years.
box |
Command
GTC, thanks for the numbers.
So you can all now make your own predictions. Here is how I would do it. (based on retirements to 2030) S - your FO seniority number (number of future Captains ahead of you) N = number of new aircraft per year CX will add (not replace, but add, your best guess) E = early, years before 65 that people will retire ( if on average you think old farts will leave at 63,use 2) Y = Years to Command = (S/(53.2+N*7)) -E A few sample predictions. S N E Y 500 0 0 9.4 500 3 2 6.9 500 3 4 4.9 500 6 2 6.4 500 3 6 2.9 1000 0 0 18.8 1000 3 0 17.8 1000 3 3 14.8 1500 0 0 28.2 1500 2 2 25.2 1500 2 4 23.2 1500 4 6 20.2 Use your head. How do you think it will work out for you? If you are in the 15-25 years to command, there will be more retirements after 2030, so use: Y = Years to Command = (S/(78.4+N*7)) -E Of course not factored in is CX screwing up so badly that everyone leaves, and CX gets the crew they deserve. BC |
It must be snowing in Canada....:8
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boxjockey As of right now, command is at just over 12 years. box Not quite. I am at 12 years, 8 months and have yet to be assessed. Was told to expect starchamber jan/feb then if I am good enough, a course 3 months later which will put me at over 13 years....now that all depends if they decide to continue commands or if they will focus on s/o and s/o upgrades. |
Correct, it is currently 13 years plus. Anyway, it's just historical data, not helpful in predicting future numbers.
Take this: subtract the currently needed seniority number for command from your own. Then divide this number by 70 or 80, because that is pretty much the max number of Captains Cathay's training system seems to be able to produce in a year ( remember the small detail of a necessity to actually pass a course). |
Great algo, Bellcrank! But as STW says, you need to put in a modifier for the max number of command courses that can be done. I don't think we have ever done more than 90 per year, and certainly the average is probably closer to 70 (over the past 2 decades).
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Approx 13.5 years for a 777 command (backlog from declined airbus slots?), yet it's around 12 years for an Airbus slot.
Have a look around the 1100 numbers on the FO seniority list: Lots of HKG 777 FOs waiting, but very few Airbus (as they've been promoted already, or are on a base and aren't moving). |
the average is probably closer to 70 (over the past 2 decades In the early 90's we were seeing fewer than 12 a year, even before ASL (gag) reared it's mangy head. |
Can't disagree with you Capt Underpants, but as the Company grows so does the training department and consequently so does it's capacity to train.
Planning have just announced a requirement for 40 ish new trainers on the 777 and 52 new trainers on the Airbus, along with 20ish more STCs (on the Bus alone). I don't think we have 20 TC/TCC to upgrade!!! Apparently they were only told last Friday about 50 new Airbusses arriving over the next couple of years, they were completely blindsided by that little nugget! |
Apparently they were only told last Friday about 50 new Airbusses arriving over the next couple of years, they were completely blindsided by that little nugget! |
Also need to factor in the number of based FO's who will not return to HK for their Command due to an absence of CN base slots.
This is a relatively new phenomenon as historically there were always bases available, and rarely did one turn down a Command. |
4 Driver has hit the nail on the head. There are many, many based FO's (into 3 figures I hear) who will stay on their bases where their children are settled at School and Mrs FO has no intention of moving from nice house to a sh*thole in the smog. Where else in the world do you have to upsticks and move half way around the world just to get a perfectly normal promotion?
As I've said before, this is the ticking time bomb along with recruiting people on rubbish terms who will leave and get a proper job elsewhere. Well done Cathay - very smart and forward thinking.:yuk: |
I think this is wishful thinking of some junior F/O's with all respect. Only a small number of F/O's go down that route.
What I wonder: what will happen if US bases open up in significant numbers ( NY has 5 flights a day..). Will that result in fast track commands for elligible candidates?? |
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