Is being a pilot still a worthwhile career for newcomers?
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Betpump 5:
Whatever things you may or may not be doing wrong, not having a wife is not one of them.
The Reo:
Please expand on your post #43
(Love of flying. hate to be contrary but you could love flying and hate an airline job. They are almost contrary in their descriptions)
There appears to be a great deal of well thought out wisdom in your post. Please elucidate.
Whatever things you may or may not be doing wrong, not having a wife is not one of them.
The Reo:
Please expand on your post #43
(Love of flying. hate to be contrary but you could love flying and hate an airline job. They are almost contrary in their descriptions)
There appears to be a great deal of well thought out wisdom in your post. Please elucidate.
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A bit of threadcreep here, sorry Wakeup, but you may want to do some research on this issue too as it will impact on your career.
FOCX,
You may want to spend some time, as will anyone considering a career in aviation, and educate yourself on what might happen in the near future or even in 3 or 4 decades time.
Briefly, from comments in your post: fuel blends will not solve this problem, aviation will not be a priority industry when it comes to the last of the worlds oil reserves (feeding a percentage of 8 or 9 billion people might squeeze in before a trip to New York), Boeing/Airbus/ "the tourist industry" will not be able to influence the result of increased oil prices through scarcity by political or scientific (read the next best thing) means and always remember that oil companies can be less than accurate in their statements, particularly when it comes to the world's reserves of oil and gas, which is only an educated guess anyway. (Demand might be down at present, but have a look at how much we are using today and compare it to even 7 years ago. eg 1991 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 66,632 and 2008 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 84,455 (source: BP statistical review of world energy full report 2009)).
The information is out there if you are prepared to find it. For example have a look at BP's own statistical data wrt world consumption etc here http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...eport_2009.xls
In that data they say that our current R/P ratio (Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.) is 42.0 years. That is, all the worlds known reserves (which is a best optimistic guess anyway) gone in 42 years time if production rates remain the same as they are currently, taken from the industries own figures. That takes no account of increased demand or production or the fact that as the reserves diminish the stuff is going to be harder to get.
from here Oil Consumption: How Does Today Compare to 1980? -- Seeking Alpha also puts things in perspective.
FOCX,
I still don't think the oil situation is going to have an extreme effect on aviation
Briefly, from comments in your post: fuel blends will not solve this problem, aviation will not be a priority industry when it comes to the last of the worlds oil reserves (feeding a percentage of 8 or 9 billion people might squeeze in before a trip to New York), Boeing/Airbus/ "the tourist industry" will not be able to influence the result of increased oil prices through scarcity by political or scientific (read the next best thing) means and always remember that oil companies can be less than accurate in their statements, particularly when it comes to the world's reserves of oil and gas, which is only an educated guess anyway. (Demand might be down at present, but have a look at how much we are using today and compare it to even 7 years ago. eg 1991 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 66,632 and 2008 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 84,455 (source: BP statistical review of world energy full report 2009)).
The information is out there if you are prepared to find it. For example have a look at BP's own statistical data wrt world consumption etc here http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...eport_2009.xls
In that data they say that our current R/P ratio (Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.) is 42.0 years. That is, all the worlds known reserves (which is a best optimistic guess anyway) gone in 42 years time if production rates remain the same as they are currently, taken from the industries own figures. That takes no account of increased demand or production or the fact that as the reserves diminish the stuff is going to be harder to get.
Currently existing fields worldwide are declining at approximately 4.5% per year. This means each year the world has to bring on line the equivalent of another Nigeria plus another Indonesia, just to keep production flat
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Alistair, I agree with you.
If a young guy in his twenties wants to have a smooth career, he shouldn' t choose the airline pilot path. It is too uncertain. There is the economy, the fuel... Nothing to compare with a doctor career for exemple.
For somebody really motivated, who is ready to fly a C210 in Africa if there is no more job, fine.
But for somebody seeking a flawless and rewarding airline pilot career... No. Too many risks. We don' t even know which airline will still opperate in 30 years.
Just before the recession the fuel was at 147$, we already forgot? Yes it was speculation, sure. Still, it is because the incertainty of the fuel reserve worldwide, that people speculate.
What will happen to the fuel price as soon as the economy will recover? Who can say the fuel won' t reach 200 $, or even much more, within few years?
This recession made us forget what we were all thinking about last year: at what price the fuel baril will still increase?
I you wanted a really interesting and rewarding airline pilot career, you are one century late.
If a young guy in his twenties wants to have a smooth career, he shouldn' t choose the airline pilot path. It is too uncertain. There is the economy, the fuel... Nothing to compare with a doctor career for exemple.
For somebody really motivated, who is ready to fly a C210 in Africa if there is no more job, fine.
But for somebody seeking a flawless and rewarding airline pilot career... No. Too many risks. We don' t even know which airline will still opperate in 30 years.
Just before the recession the fuel was at 147$, we already forgot? Yes it was speculation, sure. Still, it is because the incertainty of the fuel reserve worldwide, that people speculate.
What will happen to the fuel price as soon as the economy will recover? Who can say the fuel won' t reach 200 $, or even much more, within few years?
This recession made us forget what we were all thinking about last year: at what price the fuel baril will still increase?
I you wanted a really interesting and rewarding airline pilot career, you are one century late.
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Or invest the massive amount cash you are going to have to spend to get your licence and a few endorsements, and put that same amount in oil investments, and paraglide off your wallet for fun. 
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someone said in these times to be a pilot you need to be a genius and beat hundreds of people to get a job, but that's person could be just you no ? Don't listen to stupid negative comments. Keep a positive, perserverant and a rigorous attitude and you'll become whatever you want.
Oil is also the most stupid argument I've heard to dissuade someone becoming a pilot, come on man, a crap like GM got all the help to survive, you think they will let the aviation industry crash by itself without any intervention? just because there is no more oil ? You think that this world is limited to oil! Things are going fast and you don't what's coming up.
The aviation industry is cyclic and sometimes things are well and sometimes bad, who know maybe a pilot career could be something very promising in the next years.
In every job today you should be flexible and adapt yourself to upcoming conditions, we call this capitalism. If you're a rigid person, then you still living in the Ford era where there is no place for this kind of people in our time.
Determination will take you far....
To the grammar/syntax police, please don't waste your time.
Thanks and good luck to all.
Oil is also the most stupid argument I've heard to dissuade someone becoming a pilot, come on man, a crap like GM got all the help to survive, you think they will let the aviation industry crash by itself without any intervention? just because there is no more oil ? You think that this world is limited to oil! Things are going fast and you don't what's coming up.
The aviation industry is cyclic and sometimes things are well and sometimes bad, who know maybe a pilot career could be something very promising in the next years.
In every job today you should be flexible and adapt yourself to upcoming conditions, we call this capitalism. If you're a rigid person, then you still living in the Ford era where there is no place for this kind of people in our time.
Determination will take you far....
To the grammar/syntax police, please don't waste your time.
Thanks and good luck to all.
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Guava tree
Its very hard to expand without sounding bitter and getting flames running in a stack of people.
The simple version
Airline flying has very little hands on flying. If the flying you love is all about going to different cities on night stops then it will rock your boat.
If the flying you love is about the hands and feet, meandering a bit on your way because something looked interesting over there. Then be cautious of airline flying. Many from times past kept this by recreational flying going when not at work. However I suggest that the wage (worldwide) is not keeping up with inflation and I don't find many of the younger generation with the cash to afford this recreational flying on the side.
The monotony of an airline job can send you nuts at times. Yes the view of a sunset and sunrise is fantastic and you won't see it in the office.
However any newcomer needs to be aware of the constant fatigue, night shift, shorter and shorter layovers and the increasing number of hours flown per month that this industry is accepting.
Its very hard to expand without sounding bitter and getting flames running in a stack of people.
The simple version
Airline flying has very little hands on flying. If the flying you love is all about going to different cities on night stops then it will rock your boat.
If the flying you love is about the hands and feet, meandering a bit on your way because something looked interesting over there. Then be cautious of airline flying. Many from times past kept this by recreational flying going when not at work. However I suggest that the wage (worldwide) is not keeping up with inflation and I don't find many of the younger generation with the cash to afford this recreational flying on the side.
The monotony of an airline job can send you nuts at times. Yes the view of a sunset and sunrise is fantastic and you won't see it in the office.
However any newcomer needs to be aware of the constant fatigue, night shift, shorter and shorter layovers and the increasing number of hours flown per month that this industry is accepting.
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I look up at they sky and wonder what it would be like to control an airbus
I am with Sisyphos, to a certain extent, how many expats would be here if they could earn the same money back home, other than those who just wan't to experience living in another part of the world ( although I find it hard to believe they would want to do it long term ). I find it difficult to fathom that people would actually volunteer to breathe in this pollution and live in an over crowded city, away from home, long term, if they could be in their home country earning the same coin.
But I guess not everyone lucky enough to call Oz home.
If so many expats keen to just be living in HK, why do CX/KA pay 2-3 times more than most other carriers ? Oh thats right, they're just nice people
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Show me your figures
why do CX/KA pay 2-3 times more than most other carriers ?
Talk to our Aussie based crews, apparently some (most/all??) are being paid less than their QF equivalent.
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That is true. CX now pays less than most major airlines to people on bases in that country.
Add this to the very long time to command in future and its only a shadow of what it used to be. Only way to do it is be in HKG and be lucky/skilled in making some $$ out of the housing.
For a local guy with no housing - not a great deal.....
Add this to the very long time to command in future and its only a shadow of what it used to be. Only way to do it is be in HKG and be lucky/skilled in making some $$ out of the housing.
For a local guy with no housing - not a great deal.....
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BC, was'nt talking about guys on a base,thats why I made the point about living here in HK, but do carry on like a pork chop anyway.
I agree based guys in Oz are on slightly less than their QF counterparts, tho.
I agree based guys in Oz are on slightly less than their QF counterparts, tho.
Fooey, the reality of "slightly less than QF" these days is sadly closer to "sh!t loads" less. A nine year based fo with cx gets the same money (comparing group certificates) as a seven year so (thats right second officer) with qf on the 400. The qf guy gets a bid line roster system and works 10 to 12 days a month. The cx guy gets given a roster each month (the last six months, opening it has been more like steping in a dog turd than anything else) of which all he can request with any certainty is one block of days off and requires 15 to 17 days of work a month. Those guys live on a different planet. If it wasn't for mortages and seniority (don't get me started on how little use that is to a cx guy), I'd go and join them on it.
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Pill, I take your point and I guess if sitting in the jumpseat for 9 years floats your boat ( as it seems to with a few QF guys ) then go for it I say. But if that perpetual jumpseat rider decides to go to one of the control seats, then he will be pretty close to a CX based guy ( ie a pay cut ). The thing is the QF guy does'nt have the option to come to HK earn a truck load of money and pay F all tax.
And don't talk to me about rosters, SLS induced rosters seem to be akin to someone sticking a dog turd directly up your nose, but for the moment I'll take the money.
And don't talk to me about rosters, SLS induced rosters seem to be akin to someone sticking a dog turd directly up your nose, but for the moment I'll take the money.
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The thing is the QF guy does'nt have the option to come to HK earn a truck load of money and pay F all tax.
