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Old 25th Jun 2009, 04:25
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Alistair
 
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A bit of threadcreep here, sorry Wakeup, but you may want to do some research on this issue too as it will impact on your career.

FOCX,
I still don't think the oil situation is going to have an extreme effect on aviation
You may want to spend some time, as will anyone considering a career in aviation, and educate yourself on what might happen in the near future or even in 3 or 4 decades time.

Briefly, from comments in your post: fuel blends will not solve this problem, aviation will not be a priority industry when it comes to the last of the worlds oil reserves (feeding a percentage of 8 or 9 billion people might squeeze in before a trip to New York), Boeing/Airbus/ "the tourist industry" will not be able to influence the result of increased oil prices through scarcity by political or scientific (read the next best thing) means and always remember that oil companies can be less than accurate in their statements, particularly when it comes to the world's reserves of oil and gas, which is only an educated guess anyway. (Demand might be down at present, but have a look at how much we are using today and compare it to even 7 years ago. eg 1991 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 66,632 and 2008 consumption in thousands of Barrels per day 84,455 (source: BP statistical review of world energy full report 2009)).

The information is out there if you are prepared to find it. For example have a look at BP's own statistical data wrt world consumption etc here http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...eport_2009.xls

In that data they say that our current R/P ratio (Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.) is 42.0 years. That is, all the worlds known reserves (which is a best optimistic guess anyway) gone in 42 years time if production rates remain the same as they are currently, taken from the industries own figures. That takes no account of increased demand or production or the fact that as the reserves diminish the stuff is going to be harder to get.
Currently existing fields worldwide are declining at approximately 4.5% per year. This means each year the world has to bring on line the equivalent of another Nigeria plus another Indonesia, just to keep production flat
from here Oil Consumption: How Does Today Compare to 1980? -- Seeking Alpha also puts things in perspective.
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