Asian Pilot Shortage
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I feel sorry for imad and other cadets copping a beating on this topic. Its the same old crap among pilots.... "and there I was....", "I flew fast jets and you did'nt....", "military pilots are superior to a GA guy..", "the GA guy does it tough vs military..". You get the gist. We all have such diverse backgrounds at CX (culturally and professionaly), this is a good thing. Everyone takes advantage of opportunity, that is natural. If I were offered a cadetship with a major airline in my youth, damn sure I would have taken it. Cadets are not about to erode the career path of any pilot in CX, present or future. The volume (or lack of it) is of no meaningful consequence. More a case of political posturing on the company behalf. During my time in CX, I have seen some terrific pilots and some more forgetable performances, the majority though sit in between. Average people, average pilots. Cadets and expats sit in all three categories. So lets stop hanging **** on each other. The company love to see us at each others throats. Lets stick together for once. Unite and stick it to management and not each other!
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Have seen all this before, different setting and with a more political tint.
Pilots salaries, like most things, are driven by the law of supply and demand.
I dont wanna pop anybody's bubble, but driving the bus is NOT like sending a man to the moon. The hard part about becoming a pilot, like most things, is affording it.
So lets remove that little huddle and train more pilots. Then we can pay the rest less.
ECONOMICS101
p.s. dont look down on the cabin trash, we are all part of the same big wheel. If the Sh
hit the fan, i would want them to be pulling my loved ones out of wreakage.
Pilots salaries, like most things, are driven by the law of supply and demand.
I dont wanna pop anybody's bubble, but driving the bus is NOT like sending a man to the moon. The hard part about becoming a pilot, like most things, is affording it.
So lets remove that little huddle and train more pilots. Then we can pay the rest less.
ECONOMICS101
p.s. dont look down on the cabin trash, we are all part of the same big wheel. If the Sh
hit the fan, i would want them to be pulling my loved ones out of wreakage.
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Avi8tor :
Is this really what you think of the cabin crew or is there a hidden meaning in your remarks??
Is this really what you think of the cabin crew or is there a hidden meaning in your remarks??
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Humour
Avi8tor:
Humour is the quality of being amusing. I don't think your remarks would fall into that category, particularly if one were to view the remark from a cabin crew perspective. Enough said. Apology accepted.
Humour is the quality of being amusing. I don't think your remarks would fall into that category, particularly if one were to view the remark from a cabin crew perspective. Enough said. Apology accepted.
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I don't think your remarks would fall into that category, particularly if one were to view the remark from a cabin crew perspective
And for the record, by any name, they are an integral part of the team.
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Well, looks to me that there is no shortage at all.
Have you seen the pay on offer at Jade? Have also been "informed" that you have very few days per month that are really days off. As long as people accept these deals the long awaited raise in T&Cs will never happen.
Have you seen the pay on offer at Jade? Have also been "informed" that you have very few days per month that are really days off. As long as people accept these deals the long awaited raise in T&Cs will never happen.
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Cx is not worried about a pilot shortage, what they are worried about is in having to train all of the pilots they need for the 777 that are coming. If they get age 65 they will not have to train as many and in doing so they will save a bundle in training costs. They have worked out that paying 200 guys Ascales for another 10 years is cheaper than having to train 200 captains, 200 f/o's and 200 S/o (each guys moves up the scale).
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LEP savings
I don't want to get too numerical here. Just wanted to point out something not many people will be aware of. Lets compare an expat and cadet joining at 28 years old.
I have heard that the year in ADL costs CX about $1 million HKD - no idea if that is accurate or not. For the sake of argument, lets assume the LEP has a normal upgrade rate after he leaves ADL.
Currently expat SOs get housing of around $24K a month for two years. Lets assume that from 2 years until upgrade they rent/buy at the RFZ rate -$48K???
Currently(RA55) it takes around 9 years to become a captain. That means that an expat pilot would cost around $4.6million HKD in housing and another $1 million in education(2 kids).
So by the time the LEP gets to his command he has saved CX $5.6million HKD vs the expat and cost CX the course in ADL($1million?).
Assuming RA55, the LEP will save CX another $10million in housing as a captain and another $600K in EDN.
So over a career the LEP will save CX $15million (16.2m - ADL course cost) vs employing an expat.
So I know many feel the LEPs should be grateful that they were trained by CX but they save CX a lot of money unlike QF cadets!
I have heard that the year in ADL costs CX about $1 million HKD - no idea if that is accurate or not. For the sake of argument, lets assume the LEP has a normal upgrade rate after he leaves ADL.
Currently expat SOs get housing of around $24K a month for two years. Lets assume that from 2 years until upgrade they rent/buy at the RFZ rate -$48K???
Currently(RA55) it takes around 9 years to become a captain. That means that an expat pilot would cost around $4.6million HKD in housing and another $1 million in education(2 kids).
So by the time the LEP gets to his command he has saved CX $5.6million HKD vs the expat and cost CX the course in ADL($1million?).
Assuming RA55, the LEP will save CX another $10million in housing as a captain and another $600K in EDN.
So over a career the LEP will save CX $15million (16.2m - ADL course cost) vs employing an expat.
So I know many feel the LEPs should be grateful that they were trained by CX but they save CX a lot of money unlike QF cadets!
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frogman1484
It may seem counter intuitive but RA65 will actually cost CX money. What it gains them is less training courses in the short term (5-10 years depending on how long the average guy works beyond 55th birthday).
A simple example may help - imagine no growth - for the next 10 years there would be no courses needed. Meanwhile every SO is earning SO4 salary, all FOs are on SFO6 and all captains have moved up 10 increments. By our(not just me;-) analysis we estimate the savings on training costs are wiped out by extra increment pay per rank within 5 years.
There is a balance between training costs and having the most junior SO/FO/CNs possible. But if you become training constrained then all bets are off and you just accept the higher salary bill.
For info...the cost(salary and PF only) 'per pilot' was higher in 2000 than it is today. But then we had 600 A scalers out of 1500 vs 400 A scalers out of 2100 today.
So like I said, although it isn't obvious, RA65 is going to cost CX more than RA55.
A simple example may help - imagine no growth - for the next 10 years there would be no courses needed. Meanwhile every SO is earning SO4 salary, all FOs are on SFO6 and all captains have moved up 10 increments. By our(not just me;-) analysis we estimate the savings on training costs are wiped out by extra increment pay per rank within 5 years.
There is a balance between training costs and having the most junior SO/FO/CNs possible. But if you become training constrained then all bets are off and you just accept the higher salary bill.
For info...the cost(salary and PF only) 'per pilot' was higher in 2000 than it is today. But then we had 600 A scalers out of 1500 vs 400 A scalers out of 2100 today.
So like I said, although it isn't obvious, RA65 is going to cost CX more than RA55.
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"Well, looks to me that there is no shortage at all.
Have you seen the pay on offer at Jade? Have also been "informed" that you have very few days per month that are really days off. As long as people accept these deals the long awaited raise in T&Cs will never happen."
Hey "Pro", lets compare apples to apples my friend. You can't compare CX to an all cargo outfit with less than 5 airplanes, all the same type. Jade pays what they pay and it is an orange, and CX pays what they pay because they are an apple.
Jade is Mainland based. If you don't think that mainland carriers are short, consider that the governemnt has stepped in to prevent any further growth due to the pilot shortage. Only airlines employing foreign pilots will be allowed growth and expansion into china. Just because Jade got enough people to start an operation doesn't mean that things are hunky-dory in their recriutment department. It is very different to staff an airline that only has a few airplanes with staffing one that has multiple bases and over 100.
Have you seen the pay on offer at Jade? Have also been "informed" that you have very few days per month that are really days off. As long as people accept these deals the long awaited raise in T&Cs will never happen."
Hey "Pro", lets compare apples to apples my friend. You can't compare CX to an all cargo outfit with less than 5 airplanes, all the same type. Jade pays what they pay and it is an orange, and CX pays what they pay because they are an apple.
Jade is Mainland based. If you don't think that mainland carriers are short, consider that the governemnt has stepped in to prevent any further growth due to the pilot shortage. Only airlines employing foreign pilots will be allowed growth and expansion into china. Just because Jade got enough people to start an operation doesn't mean that things are hunky-dory in their recriutment department. It is very different to staff an airline that only has a few airplanes with staffing one that has multiple bases and over 100.
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1.Not enough people take the offer from Jade, - they are parking a B 744 -lack of pilots!!
2. Age 65: Typical CX management and pilots calculations...
Age 65 costs in any case more than 55 - just because many F/O,S/O's don't want to have their upgrades delayed by further 3 or MORE years, so some will resign -additional 'gap'=costs!
2. Age 65: Typical CX management and pilots calculations...
Age 65 costs in any case more than 55 - just because many F/O,S/O's don't want to have their upgrades delayed by further 3 or MORE years, so some will resign -additional 'gap'=costs!
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Numero , you are right ...if no growth.
But we have 30+ 777 arriving and therefore growth. Just remember CX is a smart company , they will not offer something for nothing. They know what it will cost them and believe me this offer is 110% in their favour. They want RA65 because it saves them a lot of money by doing it this way...just ask them if they so worried about RA65 why are they not offering the same retirement age to the cabin crew and ground staff.
But we have 30+ 777 arriving and therefore growth. Just remember CX is a smart company , they will not offer something for nothing. They know what it will cost them and believe me this offer is 110% in their favour. They want RA65 because it saves them a lot of money by doing it this way...just ask them if they so worried about RA65 why are they not offering the same retirement age to the cabin crew and ground staff.
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TT Weekly News
"Another issue keeping the FOP team busy is the shortage of trainers at the flight training facility in Adelaide - another symptom of the worldwide pilot shortage. Several creative options are being considered to keep the trainers committed to the school and to the CX cadet stream."
Tony Tyler
An admission maybe? Do hope he's told NR
Tony Tyler
An admission maybe? Do hope he's told NR
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frogman1484
I realise that we are getting lots of aircraft. I built that into my model on time to command. We need to have 131 at the end of 2009 and 148 at the end of 2011 to keep command time to 12-13 years from the current 9 years.
I think we are getting some of those 777s in 2010 and 2011. As soon as we order another 19 aircraft(since we are giving back the A346s) for delivery by end of 2011 we will maintain the mid growth model.
FYI, I have estimated time to command at 12-13 years. So at the end of 2019-2020 we will have 243-258 aircraft in order to achieve command at that time....we had 102 at the end of 2006!
I think we are getting some of those 777s in 2010 and 2011. As soon as we order another 19 aircraft(since we are giving back the A346s) for delivery by end of 2011 we will maintain the mid growth model.
FYI, I have estimated time to command at 12-13 years. So at the end of 2019-2020 we will have 243-258 aircraft in order to achieve command at that time....we had 102 at the end of 2006!
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Numero
Sorry mate but you have lost me here, maybe too many numero's.
Are you saying that we are going to keep on growing to 250+ planes by 2020. Or you are saying that we need to grow to that in order to maintain command within 12 years. Both of these assumptions are a bit optimistic to me.
If RA65 is going to cost CX money why are they offering it?
Surely it will be more cost effective then to remain as we are.
Ask me and I will say that they have had to offer this in order to either offset increased training costs or put bums in seats of the new 777.
Remember no free lunches at Cx
Are you saying that we are going to keep on growing to 250+ planes by 2020. Or you are saying that we need to grow to that in order to maintain command within 12 years. Both of these assumptions are a bit optimistic to me.
If RA65 is going to cost CX money why are they offering it?
Surely it will be more cost effective then to remain as we are.
Ask me and I will say that they have had to offer this in order to either offset increased training costs or put bums in seats of the new 777.
Remember no free lunches at Cx
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frogman1484
Thats exactly what I am saying...we need 258 aircraft by end of 2020 to keep the growth rate we have had for the last 5 years. At that rate a new joiner will get his command in about 12-13 years.
There are two ameliorating factors to that time to command. One, not everyone will actually work through to 65 - I would work on the assumption that the average would be say 60 - ie, 5 more years. Two, the failure/Cat B rate we have had for the last 5 years might knock a year or so off that command time if it continues. Its hard to say for sure as obviously cat Bs might have a go at a later time. We currently have around 130+ FOs on the seniority list higher than the most junior CN - not sure what category they all are.
Why RA65? A couple of reasons...eventually at outports it will become a requirement. CX has been offering extensions(C+T) or freighters(line CNs) for a while now so that it cannot be accused of age discrimination. The second reason...the major constraint on CX right now is training. Every extendee saves a few courses. So initially there are some savings to RA65 but they are wiped out by higher average PER pilot wage bills within 5 years.
Maybe a numerical example will help. Lets say I am at 55 now and on SCN 17 (A scale). Not counting my travel fund I cost 56% more than a brand new B scale CN - to put it numerically I will earn over $800K more than him in one year. Even a B scale SCN17 earns $560K more than him.
While that FO isn't upgraded to CN1, he earns a higher increment on the SFO scale and likewise for the SO. So the cost per cockpit goes up.
Additionally every extendee is a guaranteed captain...no Cat B, no failures or extensions. Based on the last few years it seems to take 120-140 candidates to achieve 100 CNs. So there are additional training course savings.
This is not about saving money - this is about saving courses.
There are two ameliorating factors to that time to command. One, not everyone will actually work through to 65 - I would work on the assumption that the average would be say 60 - ie, 5 more years. Two, the failure/Cat B rate we have had for the last 5 years might knock a year or so off that command time if it continues. Its hard to say for sure as obviously cat Bs might have a go at a later time. We currently have around 130+ FOs on the seniority list higher than the most junior CN - not sure what category they all are.
Why RA65? A couple of reasons...eventually at outports it will become a requirement. CX has been offering extensions(C+T) or freighters(line CNs) for a while now so that it cannot be accused of age discrimination. The second reason...the major constraint on CX right now is training. Every extendee saves a few courses. So initially there are some savings to RA65 but they are wiped out by higher average PER pilot wage bills within 5 years.
Maybe a numerical example will help. Lets say I am at 55 now and on SCN 17 (A scale). Not counting my travel fund I cost 56% more than a brand new B scale CN - to put it numerically I will earn over $800K more than him in one year. Even a B scale SCN17 earns $560K more than him.
While that FO isn't upgraded to CN1, he earns a higher increment on the SFO scale and likewise for the SO. So the cost per cockpit goes up.
Additionally every extendee is a guaranteed captain...no Cat B, no failures or extensions. Based on the last few years it seems to take 120-140 candidates to achieve 100 CNs. So there are additional training course savings.
This is not about saving money - this is about saving courses.
Last edited by Numero Crunchero; 5th Sep 2007 at 01:46. Reason: Meant to say 2020 not 2010 - changed now