Macau Asia Express
Macau Asia Express
Air Macau
Mushroom
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Some more information that might be useful - appears to be well funded for a start up, with reasonably well known share-holders (CNAC and Shun Tak - the gaming lot). Claim it is going to be low cost but it remains to be seen if this is possible. Appears to be a lot of ex Dragonair influence in the start up team, but I am not sure that will be so in Flt Ops.
Six leased A320 aircraft confirmed - 5 in 2008. All ex ANA aircraft, not in the first flush of youth but well maintained. They are currently recruiting Training Captains, Captains and First Officers- it appears the initial package they offered was pretty thin (certainly NOT Dragonair packages) and rumour has it that a sizeable increase in salary may be about finalised - rumoured to be US$135 K per annum for a Captain, US$100 K for an experienced FO. They are also apparently willing to take low time FO with no jet experience.
They state a preference for A320 experienced crew - but then who doesn't! At least they are offering A320 transition courses - no formal bond but a three year reducing loan against the transition cost.
Initial routes to Japan, Vietnam and Philippines but they state that eventually China will be the main focus. Given the huge growth of casinos and "associated delights" in Macau it does appear there is a genuine business case to feed the voracious appetite of the gambling tables. Usual over optimism about growth and profitability - plans to have a zillion aircraft by year three!
Couple of permanent management guys rumoured to be about to start - Safety Manager ex CX; CP and MT from some European operator. The VP Ops and Manager Operations are ex Air Macau - at the moment there is an old ex Dragonair guy as Head of Operations but he is apparently only there for the next couple of months to get the show going.
The formal AOC application process is underway and most of the manuals supposedly written and submitted for approval.
Interviews are the usual routine - personal interview, a group session on technical subjects and a simulator ride (very straightforward). Pretty friendly atmosphere I am told.
There is a pretty good web site on Macau - COL, tax, cost of accommodation etc - look it up on Google. It ain't Hong Kong, but neither is it Shenzen so on balance probably a reasonable bet.
Hailer
Six leased A320 aircraft confirmed - 5 in 2008. All ex ANA aircraft, not in the first flush of youth but well maintained. They are currently recruiting Training Captains, Captains and First Officers- it appears the initial package they offered was pretty thin (certainly NOT Dragonair packages) and rumour has it that a sizeable increase in salary may be about finalised - rumoured to be US$135 K per annum for a Captain, US$100 K for an experienced FO. They are also apparently willing to take low time FO with no jet experience.
They state a preference for A320 experienced crew - but then who doesn't! At least they are offering A320 transition courses - no formal bond but a three year reducing loan against the transition cost.
Initial routes to Japan, Vietnam and Philippines but they state that eventually China will be the main focus. Given the huge growth of casinos and "associated delights" in Macau it does appear there is a genuine business case to feed the voracious appetite of the gambling tables. Usual over optimism about growth and profitability - plans to have a zillion aircraft by year three!
Couple of permanent management guys rumoured to be about to start - Safety Manager ex CX; CP and MT from some European operator. The VP Ops and Manager Operations are ex Air Macau - at the moment there is an old ex Dragonair guy as Head of Operations but he is apparently only there for the next couple of months to get the show going.
The formal AOC application process is underway and most of the manuals supposedly written and submitted for approval.
Interviews are the usual routine - personal interview, a group session on technical subjects and a simulator ride (very straightforward). Pretty friendly atmosphere I am told.
There is a pretty good web site on Macau - COL, tax, cost of accommodation etc - look it up on Google. It ain't Hong Kong, but neither is it Shenzen so on balance probably a reasonable bet.
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Strategy...
Just a few more thoughts...
1. Still no AOC, so still no airline
2. 6 A320's is a nice idea, but shame there is no-where to park that many between 11am-1pm, and 6pm-8pm. And following any red TS warning. And 6 A320s for the 3 countries (ie 6 routes) you mentioned is unlikely. Either 6 acft includes a number of other routes (eg SIN, China), or 2 acft is really the real number for the next 2-3 years.
3. Vietnam, Philippines and Japan? This is a complete turnaround from China, China, China as the previous stated strategy. Admittedly, given the new visa rules for mainlanders, something was likely to change. However it does make MAX mgmt look confused. Moreso when you consider 1 (and from October 2) loco airlines already operate from MFM to Clark and MNL. As does as Air Macau too. Furthermore, Air Macau recently said its future focus is on Japan, which makes the Japan strategy also look unlikely, give MAX's parentage. So that just leaves Vietnam. Meanwhile, where has SIN gone?
Hailer, I dont work for MAX so I cant be sure. But it looks like what you are being told is just PR bluff to wind up Viva. My guess is it taking another 6 months to get an AOC (and therefore to call pilots), and then MAX starting to SIN, maybe KL and BKK, plus taking some Tier 2 Chinese cities from Air Macau (such as Changsha, Guiyang, Haikou, Kunming) to create space for Air Macau to put Japan in its schedule.
Just some thoughts....
1. Still no AOC, so still no airline
2. 6 A320's is a nice idea, but shame there is no-where to park that many between 11am-1pm, and 6pm-8pm. And following any red TS warning. And 6 A320s for the 3 countries (ie 6 routes) you mentioned is unlikely. Either 6 acft includes a number of other routes (eg SIN, China), or 2 acft is really the real number for the next 2-3 years.
3. Vietnam, Philippines and Japan? This is a complete turnaround from China, China, China as the previous stated strategy. Admittedly, given the new visa rules for mainlanders, something was likely to change. However it does make MAX mgmt look confused. Moreso when you consider 1 (and from October 2) loco airlines already operate from MFM to Clark and MNL. As does as Air Macau too. Furthermore, Air Macau recently said its future focus is on Japan, which makes the Japan strategy also look unlikely, give MAX's parentage. So that just leaves Vietnam. Meanwhile, where has SIN gone?
Hailer, I dont work for MAX so I cant be sure. But it looks like what you are being told is just PR bluff to wind up Viva. My guess is it taking another 6 months to get an AOC (and therefore to call pilots), and then MAX starting to SIN, maybe KL and BKK, plus taking some Tier 2 Chinese cities from Air Macau (such as Changsha, Guiyang, Haikou, Kunming) to create space for Air Macau to put Japan in its schedule.
Just some thoughts....
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Bullseye
Arrowhead ,
Thats right on. Sounds like the same bull**** spin that hongkong express are well known for (just revisit that thread) I am sure this venture will result in the same turnover as HKE. Same players so I would not expect much different.
Thats right on. Sounds like the same bull**** spin that hongkong express are well known for (just revisit that thread) I am sure this venture will result in the same turnover as HKE. Same players so I would not expect much different.
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Arrowhead - you got a view on what is going on in Macau? I make it now five runners-and-riders....
Viva Macau - supposedly long-haul into Macau from various concession points but now telling the regulator that they can't make any money on their own routes so they want some new ones. But flying wide-body, dual-class aircraft so wrong type/config for the shorter haul segments that they now say they must get access to?
Air Macau - basket case; split between the late-lunchers and the Politburo. Unlikely to survive too much longer in current form, especially if direct links open up from Taiwan.
Macau Asia Express - not clear quite who or why but nominally at least backed by some money and supposed to have leased aircraft.
Venetian - newest entrant, ready to throw its weight about in insisting on special status and perhaps looking at a widebody operation to fill their weekly convention cycles?
Golden Dragon - a sub-concession owner and Stanley Ho narrow-body operation, but no news on it anywhere.
So, a lot of players, a lot of talk...
Viva Macau - supposedly long-haul into Macau from various concession points but now telling the regulator that they can't make any money on their own routes so they want some new ones. But flying wide-body, dual-class aircraft so wrong type/config for the shorter haul segments that they now say they must get access to?
Air Macau - basket case; split between the late-lunchers and the Politburo. Unlikely to survive too much longer in current form, especially if direct links open up from Taiwan.
Macau Asia Express - not clear quite who or why but nominally at least backed by some money and supposed to have leased aircraft.
Venetian - newest entrant, ready to throw its weight about in insisting on special status and perhaps looking at a widebody operation to fill their weekly convention cycles?
Golden Dragon - a sub-concession owner and Stanley Ho narrow-body operation, but no news on it anywhere.
So, a lot of players, a lot of talk...
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In brief...
Viva - largely depends on how Japan and Sydney pan out. Effectively decent mgmt versus the regulator and Air Macau
. My money is they grow nicely.
Air Macau - good description! Mgmt's "bury head in sand" strategy is bizarre and typical of an ex-monopoly
. Normally followed by "change mgmt and desperately try to compete" once competition is fully established. Sadly most ex-monopolists survive through sheer mass.
MAX - still no AOC and no acft and no clear strategy - but I am guessing will start Q1/Q2 next year. I think the real test will be how they compete with Air Macau esp. once the cross-straits thing gets going. I dont believe Air Macau mgmt has the balls to compete with its own loco baby, which is what it should do. Which means MAX will be supressed and maybe eventually killed by its own parent.
G. Dragon - very quiet. Cant see anything happenning.
Venetian - focused on VIP market right now. Now that all major Asian cities (bar India) are about to be covered by direct flights to Macau, I dont think there is such pressure. I think they will continue to lobby politicians to open up the skies to ensure more frequencies. They did try for an AOC though...
Also look out for more inbound flights. East Star is starting to Wuhan, Cebu to Manila, and I would expect more once Cotai really opens up.
Viva - largely depends on how Japan and Sydney pan out. Effectively decent mgmt versus the regulator and Air Macau
. My money is they grow nicely.Air Macau - good description! Mgmt's "bury head in sand" strategy is bizarre and typical of an ex-monopoly
. Normally followed by "change mgmt and desperately try to compete" once competition is fully established. Sadly most ex-monopolists survive through sheer mass.MAX - still no AOC and no acft and no clear strategy - but I am guessing will start Q1/Q2 next year. I think the real test will be how they compete with Air Macau esp. once the cross-straits thing gets going. I dont believe Air Macau mgmt has the balls to compete with its own loco baby, which is what it should do. Which means MAX will be supressed and maybe eventually killed by its own parent.
G. Dragon - very quiet. Cant see anything happenning.
Venetian - focused on VIP market right now. Now that all major Asian cities (bar India) are about to be covered by direct flights to Macau, I dont think there is such pressure. I think they will continue to lobby politicians to open up the skies to ensure more frequencies. They did try for an AOC though...
Also look out for more inbound flights. East Star is starting to Wuhan, Cebu to Manila, and I would expect more once Cotai really opens up.
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Arrowhead,
Good summary.
I have my doubts that Macau as a market at the moment can pull in enough long haul business to make Viva's approach viable. They'd have to price at such a serious discount to fares into HKG that they will bleed cash. Otherwise choose the airmiles, the frequency and the "service" on a full service operator into HKG. Its only an hour on the ferry.
The other option is to switch to shorter haul routes but this runs into NX/regulatory issues and is in itself a limited strategy. For SE Asia, Tiger and Air Asia already fly into Macau at cost levels Viva cannot presumably get close to. If Viva looks north to the PRC, they run into emerging carriers like East Star or state funded traditionals who can also price lower for longer. Plus Air China is de facto big brother to NX and MAX, so at the very least can slow Viva's attempts to set up operations from there to a snail's pace.
Either way, if the prospects are as positive as you think, why did the CEO/founder leave for another opportunity? Maybe it will work but whoever is funding them is going to have to show a lot of nerve for a while.
I reckon the Venetian has more legs - no funding issues and they are integral to future of Macau and can browbeat the Government on the risk to the future of the Cotai Strip if they have to rely on the unimpressive existing airline offering.
And why do they need to stop with VIP transport? Their conferences will house thousands, many coming from similar points of origin so once the convention flow starts, they could package up a "complimentary flights" approach that gets their foot in the door.
Anyway, sounds like you have better knowledge than me here....did they actually try and get an AOC?
Good summary.
I have my doubts that Macau as a market at the moment can pull in enough long haul business to make Viva's approach viable. They'd have to price at such a serious discount to fares into HKG that they will bleed cash. Otherwise choose the airmiles, the frequency and the "service" on a full service operator into HKG. Its only an hour on the ferry.
The other option is to switch to shorter haul routes but this runs into NX/regulatory issues and is in itself a limited strategy. For SE Asia, Tiger and Air Asia already fly into Macau at cost levels Viva cannot presumably get close to. If Viva looks north to the PRC, they run into emerging carriers like East Star or state funded traditionals who can also price lower for longer. Plus Air China is de facto big brother to NX and MAX, so at the very least can slow Viva's attempts to set up operations from there to a snail's pace.
Either way, if the prospects are as positive as you think, why did the CEO/founder leave for another opportunity? Maybe it will work but whoever is funding them is going to have to show a lot of nerve for a while.
I reckon the Venetian has more legs - no funding issues and they are integral to future of Macau and can browbeat the Government on the risk to the future of the Cotai Strip if they have to rely on the unimpressive existing airline offering.
And why do they need to stop with VIP transport? Their conferences will house thousands, many coming from similar points of origin so once the convention flow starts, they could package up a "complimentary flights" approach that gets their foot in the door.
Anyway, sounds like you have better knowledge than me here....did they actually try and get an AOC?
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Wayne
I dont know much about Macao but I flew into the airport recently and its too small to have many new flights unless they build more facilities. So I can't see local airlines can grow much, even if they manage to get started (and seems so many of them try)!
Ok maybe Macao is becoming Asia Las Vegas but when they build the bridge from Hong Kong, why do you need to direct fly to Macao.
Just my view.
I dont know much about Macao but I flew into the airport recently and its too small to have many new flights unless they build more facilities. So I can't see local airlines can grow much, even if they manage to get started (and seems so many of them try)!
Ok maybe Macao is becoming Asia Las Vegas but when they build the bridge from Hong Kong, why do you need to direct fly to Macao.
Just my view.
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On Viva - we'll see. But take a look at the website and surprisingly you will see the fares (1 month + out) are not cheaper than CX and QF to SYD. ie they are not heavily discounting. Furthermore, cost of operating out of MFM is lower than HKG (people, airport, tax), so smaller acft are offset by lower costs. Regardless, its a charter and so all paid for... and they are not really trying to steal outbound pax from HKG yet - its still an inbound market. Ubt you are right, I think Europe and US are still some way off (just as NX has talked but done nothing for years).
I would agree on the PRC and Air Asia. Hence they dont (and maybe wont) fly to Malaysia, Thailand or China.
I dont really want to say too much about AP leaving, but perhaps its not a bad thing. And on the money front, with Jakarta, Busan, Sydney for one acft and the other going on wet lease they should be break even from here. Furthermore only Jakarta is non-charter (ie on risk).
I am sure Viva investors would sell to Venetian at the right price. Meanwhile it will take some time for Venetian to realise how hard it is to get AOC and routes. So we'll see. I think Venetian will simply apply more pressure on local govt to open the skies faster. They didnt start an airline for Vegas so why in Macau, esp since its not "their line of business". VIPs will come in on the corp acft already parked here, and 2 VIP L1011s on their way - for which they are trying to get an AOC but are running into the standard Macau problems.
On the airport and bridge - (red TS warnings aside) the airport is empty from 9pm to 10.30am, and from 2pm to 6pm. But add more Viva acft plus MAX, plus another NX, plus East Star, plus Cebu plus the new Air Asia to Johor plus 2 Venetian L1011s and its looking busier. They plan to fill in btwn taxiways C and G/H but it could take years (or until the govt forces them).
Rumour has it the bridge will not be started until 2015 and completed until 2020. Meanwhile Macau will be largely built out by 2010. Indeed, I would turn it around. Why would you fly into HKG if you can fly into MFM for less and there is a bridge to the city?
I would agree on the PRC and Air Asia. Hence they dont (and maybe wont) fly to Malaysia, Thailand or China.
I dont really want to say too much about AP leaving, but perhaps its not a bad thing. And on the money front, with Jakarta, Busan, Sydney for one acft and the other going on wet lease they should be break even from here. Furthermore only Jakarta is non-charter (ie on risk).
I am sure Viva investors would sell to Venetian at the right price. Meanwhile it will take some time for Venetian to realise how hard it is to get AOC and routes. So we'll see. I think Venetian will simply apply more pressure on local govt to open the skies faster. They didnt start an airline for Vegas so why in Macau, esp since its not "their line of business". VIPs will come in on the corp acft already parked here, and 2 VIP L1011s on their way - for which they are trying to get an AOC but are running into the standard Macau problems.
On the airport and bridge - (red TS warnings aside) the airport is empty from 9pm to 10.30am, and from 2pm to 6pm. But add more Viva acft plus MAX, plus another NX, plus East Star, plus Cebu plus the new Air Asia to Johor plus 2 Venetian L1011s and its looking busier. They plan to fill in btwn taxiways C and G/H but it could take years (or until the govt forces them).
Rumour has it the bridge will not be started until 2015 and completed until 2020. Meanwhile Macau will be largely built out by 2010. Indeed, I would turn it around. Why would you fly into HKG if you can fly into MFM for less and there is a bridge to the city?
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I'd agree with Arrowhead on the bridge issue. The Macau, Guangdong and Hong Kong authorities have to reach consensus on all of the immigration, construction and funding arrangements. Lots of egos to placate and pork barrel funds to allocate, so this is not going to happen fast.
On Viva, well Arrowhead the jury is out. If Venetian decides to buy them purely for an AOC, they will presumably only want to pay up to what they calculate it costs to push for a standalone AOC themselves (and this already assumes that they can cut through the regulatory mess linked to buying a sub-concession from Viva).
This would mean that the Viva investors (who must be in for a lot more than the AOC set up costs alone as they must have been operating at a significant loss this year) would not get anything close to their original equity investment back.
I suppose they could accept a fire sale if they decided that this was the only way to cover some of their losses. The irony is that they can't argue that the sub-concession is worth much as part of any rescue deal as Viva is insisting that it needs to fly to points outside of it to survive! Its tough to cite the subcon as a legal asset worth paying for when they seem to regard it as a commercial liability....
On the business model, your logic of charter operations being 'all paid for' only extends so far. Sure, the risk passes to the charterer for the duration of the charter contract but if he discovers he is losing money himself he just won't renew the deal. Assuming he is signing short term contracts, this doesn't give Viva much breathing space.
So, what are the economics behind the charterer's business? If - as you point out - the fares being advertised are not much cheaper than CX or QF flights from Sydney, we return to the original question of why people would choose Viva. Will they regard the 90 minutes less land travel time from HKG as more valuable than the loss of the benefits of full service carrier product highlighted previously?
I doubt it. The only reason for large numbers of passengers to shift to SYDMFM are a clear and sustainable cost saving to the customer from choosing to fly Viva to Macau. But the costs that you cite as providing an advantage (airport fees, some lower expenses for ground staff) are too small a percentage of the overall cost base to allow for significant fare differentials to be sustained.
One final comment - I hadn't heard that they were trying to wet lease one of their aircraft. If so, it seems inconsistent that they effectively halve their fleet whilst talking about the exciting opportunities in Macau for low fare airlines. If they had a genuine cost advantage, surely they would be keen to maximise it by spreading their lower cost base over a larger operation to as many passengers as possible?
My guess is - if I understand you right that they are trying to wet lease - that this is more a sign that the business model is heavily under water for the foreseeable future, and the only fallback is to try to conserve cash whilst they hope for a change in the aeropolitics. This may come sooner rather than later as NX doesn't exactly have a reservoir of goodwill to fall back on locally. The question is how long this takes and who they can find to fund the wait.
On Viva, well Arrowhead the jury is out. If Venetian decides to buy them purely for an AOC, they will presumably only want to pay up to what they calculate it costs to push for a standalone AOC themselves (and this already assumes that they can cut through the regulatory mess linked to buying a sub-concession from Viva).
This would mean that the Viva investors (who must be in for a lot more than the AOC set up costs alone as they must have been operating at a significant loss this year) would not get anything close to their original equity investment back.
I suppose they could accept a fire sale if they decided that this was the only way to cover some of their losses. The irony is that they can't argue that the sub-concession is worth much as part of any rescue deal as Viva is insisting that it needs to fly to points outside of it to survive! Its tough to cite the subcon as a legal asset worth paying for when they seem to regard it as a commercial liability....
On the business model, your logic of charter operations being 'all paid for' only extends so far. Sure, the risk passes to the charterer for the duration of the charter contract but if he discovers he is losing money himself he just won't renew the deal. Assuming he is signing short term contracts, this doesn't give Viva much breathing space.
So, what are the economics behind the charterer's business? If - as you point out - the fares being advertised are not much cheaper than CX or QF flights from Sydney, we return to the original question of why people would choose Viva. Will they regard the 90 minutes less land travel time from HKG as more valuable than the loss of the benefits of full service carrier product highlighted previously?
I doubt it. The only reason for large numbers of passengers to shift to SYDMFM are a clear and sustainable cost saving to the customer from choosing to fly Viva to Macau. But the costs that you cite as providing an advantage (airport fees, some lower expenses for ground staff) are too small a percentage of the overall cost base to allow for significant fare differentials to be sustained.
One final comment - I hadn't heard that they were trying to wet lease one of their aircraft. If so, it seems inconsistent that they effectively halve their fleet whilst talking about the exciting opportunities in Macau for low fare airlines. If they had a genuine cost advantage, surely they would be keen to maximise it by spreading their lower cost base over a larger operation to as many passengers as possible?
My guess is - if I understand you right that they are trying to wet lease - that this is more a sign that the business model is heavily under water for the foreseeable future, and the only fallback is to try to conserve cash whilst they hope for a change in the aeropolitics. This may come sooner rather than later as NX doesn't exactly have a reservoir of goodwill to fall back on locally. The question is how long this takes and who they can find to fund the wait.
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Rumour of salary enhancement
All intellectually sound and esoteric stuff from Arrowhead and Wayne's Tache.
However for those more interested in whether Macau Asia Express (or any carrier in Macao for that matter) is a good bet for employment, I heard an informed whisper last night that MAX have agreed to create two additional ranks - Senior Captain and Senior First Officer, with a 20 % + enhancement of the original salaries.
The Senior Captain (4000 hours; 1000 multi crew transport; 500 jet transport command from memory) now USD130,000 pa; Senior First Officer (3000 hrs; 500 hrs multi crew) now USD84 000 pa. The package is made up of several items - high productivity element based on 17 duties per month (but with a minimum guarantee) - the figures are approximate. There is also a provident fund/ medical etc but no housing. Minimal travel. Still not Cathay but getting better. Start dates for first aircraft late September.
Obviously they must have recognised the reality - if you want to get some decent pilots you have to pay for them, not rely on meaningless rhetoric about the reputation of the shareholders (Which Wayne ad Arrowhead would doubtless demolish in any case!)
Does this make it an attractive job? The jury is out, but it has advantages. They will give A320 ratings; they are offering a permanent job; they do not have a "localisation" problem; they have got 6 aircraft firmed up so there will be promotion and training opportunities. Living in Macao may be an acquired taste, but the tax is better than HK, accommodation is cheaper.
As to the interesting exchange above, much may be aplication of logic to an illogical situation! Having three airlines in Macao makes no sense; creating an airline to compete with your own other airline makes even less sense that defies rational analysis, so there are obviously other forces at play. My bet would be that MAX has a chance of prospering particularly if Air Macau is the basket case it reportedly is. I certainly would not put my pension on Viva's survival even if they are charming guys with or without AP!
Hailer
However for those more interested in whether Macau Asia Express (or any carrier in Macao for that matter) is a good bet for employment, I heard an informed whisper last night that MAX have agreed to create two additional ranks - Senior Captain and Senior First Officer, with a 20 % + enhancement of the original salaries.
The Senior Captain (4000 hours; 1000 multi crew transport; 500 jet transport command from memory) now USD130,000 pa; Senior First Officer (3000 hrs; 500 hrs multi crew) now USD84 000 pa. The package is made up of several items - high productivity element based on 17 duties per month (but with a minimum guarantee) - the figures are approximate. There is also a provident fund/ medical etc but no housing. Minimal travel. Still not Cathay but getting better. Start dates for first aircraft late September.
Obviously they must have recognised the reality - if you want to get some decent pilots you have to pay for them, not rely on meaningless rhetoric about the reputation of the shareholders (Which Wayne ad Arrowhead would doubtless demolish in any case!)
Does this make it an attractive job? The jury is out, but it has advantages. They will give A320 ratings; they are offering a permanent job; they do not have a "localisation" problem; they have got 6 aircraft firmed up so there will be promotion and training opportunities. Living in Macao may be an acquired taste, but the tax is better than HK, accommodation is cheaper.
As to the interesting exchange above, much may be aplication of logic to an illogical situation! Having three airlines in Macao makes no sense; creating an airline to compete with your own other airline makes even less sense that defies rational analysis, so there are obviously other forces at play. My bet would be that MAX has a chance of prospering particularly if Air Macau is the basket case it reportedly is. I certainly would not put my pension on Viva's survival even if they are charming guys with or without AP!
Hailer