Arrowhead,
Good summary.
I have my doubts that Macau as a market at the moment can pull in enough long haul business to make Viva's approach viable. They'd have to price at such a serious discount to fares into HKG that they will bleed cash. Otherwise choose the airmiles, the frequency and the "service" on a full service operator into HKG. Its only an hour on the ferry.
The other option is to switch to shorter haul routes but this runs into NX/regulatory issues and is in itself a limited strategy. For SE Asia, Tiger and Air Asia already fly into Macau at cost levels Viva cannot presumably get close to. If Viva looks north to the PRC, they run into emerging carriers like East Star or state funded traditionals who can also price lower for longer. Plus Air China is de facto big brother to NX and MAX, so at the very least can slow Viva's attempts to set up operations from there to a snail's pace.
Either way, if the prospects are as positive as you think, why did the CEO/founder leave for another opportunity? Maybe it will work but whoever is funding them is going to have to show a lot of nerve for a while.
I reckon the Venetian has more legs - no funding issues and they are integral to future of Macau and can browbeat the Government on the risk to the future of the Cotai Strip if they have to rely on the unimpressive existing airline offering.
And why do they need to stop with VIP transport? Their conferences will house thousands, many coming from similar points of origin so once the convention flow starts, they could package up a "complimentary flights" approach that gets their foot in the door.
Anyway, sounds like you have better knowledge than me here....did they actually try and get an AOC?