On Viva - we'll see. But take a look at the website and surprisingly you will see the fares (1 month + out) are not cheaper than CX and QF to SYD. ie they are not heavily discounting. Furthermore, cost of operating out of MFM is lower than HKG (people, airport, tax), so smaller acft are offset by lower costs. Regardless, its a charter and so all paid for... and they are not really trying to steal outbound pax from HKG yet - its still an inbound market. Ubt you are right, I think Europe and US are still some way off (just as NX has talked but done nothing for years).
I would agree on the PRC and Air Asia. Hence they dont (and maybe wont) fly to Malaysia, Thailand or China.
I dont really want to say too much about AP leaving, but perhaps its not a bad thing. And on the money front, with Jakarta, Busan, Sydney for one acft and the other going on wet lease they should be break even from here. Furthermore only Jakarta is non-charter (ie on risk).
I am sure Viva investors would sell to Venetian at the right price. Meanwhile it will take some time for Venetian to realise how hard it is to get AOC and routes. So we'll see. I think Venetian will simply apply more pressure on local govt to open the skies faster. They didnt start an airline for Vegas so why in Macau, esp since its not "their line of business". VIPs will come in on the corp acft already parked here, and 2 VIP L1011s on their way - for which they are trying to get an AOC but are running into the standard Macau problems.
On the airport and bridge - (red TS warnings aside) the airport is empty from 9pm to 10.30am, and from 2pm to 6pm. But add more Viva acft plus MAX, plus another NX, plus East Star, plus Cebu plus the new Air Asia to Johor plus 2 Venetian L1011s and its looking busier. They plan to fill in btwn taxiways C and G/H but it could take years (or until the govt forces them).
Rumour has it the bridge will not be started until 2015 and completed until 2020. Meanwhile Macau will be largely built out by 2010. Indeed, I would turn it around. Why would you fly into HKG if you can fly into MFM for less and there is a bridge to the city?