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Possible Bad news for Sunwing

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Possible Bad news for Sunwing

Old 31st Aug 2008, 12:28
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doo
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Possible Bad news for Sunwing

In todays UK Sunday Times, XL in trouble.
XL Leisure Group enters crisis funding talks - Times Online
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Old 31st Aug 2008, 13:51
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Troubled skies for canadian aviation?
Absolutely.
Sunwings....
Canjet....
Zoom will not be alone, the players flying under the Low Cost banner (including West Jet) must be holding their breaths in hopes of lower fuel prices.
When you see the immediate solution to their fuel cost crisis was to hit consumers (which is good economics) the reaction will likely be a reduction in consumers flying on those airlines (bad economics). Low Cost = Low Price, right? Until their low prices are the same as the legacy airlines. Then their raison d'etre evaporates. Economics kick in and increased costs measured against decreased income =
....you know the result as well as I do.
Ain't gonna happen my friend. Ain't gonna happen. The stronger of those three c(sh)ould survive. (IMHO, not that anyone asked) As for the others, it's anyones guess.
If I were handing out advise (which quite often is free) to pilots at any of those airlines, it would be, move. Move while overseas jobs are still available.
Don't want to leave Canada?
Maybe you want to consider EI vs Income. But then who am I to say?

right now? the industry sucks
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Old 31st Aug 2008, 22:27
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WJA

WJA in trouble? You might want to review their quarterly numbers for the last 2 years, then check out their cash reserves and debt to equity ratio.

There are only three non-cpa airlines in North America that can be profitable with $120 oil. WestJet, Southwest and Allegiant.
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Old 2nd Sep 2008, 11:06
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Media jums the band wagon again!
Hope for XL after lenders spend the weekend in talks - Telegraph

Sounds like things are under control for now.

Willie Everlearn:
For the record, Sunwing is not a "low cost airline". Sunwing is a vacation company that has chosen to provide their own aircraft to get their customer to their holiday destinations. That is not to say anyone is immune to a sliding economy and rising fuel prices.... speaking of fuel prices! Some potentially good news.. $105 a barrel and predicted to fall below $100 again..... for now

Last edited by Rubberbiscuit; 2nd Sep 2008 at 13:36. Reason: Spelling error....
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Old 2nd Sep 2008, 12:57
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I should point out that SunWing and Canjet, like Air Transat...play the IT game and as such, aren't LCCs (by definition). But if you looked closely at these operations they are as close to an LCC as damn is to swearing.
What these three players rely on are 'package' tours. They also let the consumer pay for the gas hikes so they don't have much publicity that tells the consumer they're going to have to tack this increase onto the price of an inclusive tour. They leave that up to the tour operator.
This means eventually, the package price climbs to 'just beyond' the consumers reach. That just might impact the number of seats occupied on that Puerta Plata flight.

As for West Jet and Southwest. I'm inclined to agree here. I truly believe these guys are LCCs (by definition and history). With strong balance sheets. Unless the bean counters are cooking the books. But lets' face it. That never happens in the airline industry, does it?
The days of "fly West Jet" at all costs isn't the mindset of consumers, trust me. Consumers will postpone travel until the price fits their budget. But, that's nothing new.

Last time I checked WJ YUL-YHZ, the fare was the same as AC. Except I had to go via YYZ, which didn't make sense. But hey, it was searched as the lowest fare. Maybe their direct flight is a bit more expensive?
Wait a minute, isn't this website booking business suppose to be easy to use???
I don't think WJ is in danger of going out of business anytime soon. But, if Zoom can tank, you gotta wonder about CJ and SW. I'm pretty sure Mr. Rowe will only go so far with losses in the balance sheet before he puts an end to it.
While it's nice to have a fleet of shiney new NGs, the monthly lease/finance charges add up.

Don't forget, I'm only speculating here.
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Old 2nd Sep 2008, 20:15
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doo
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So how many airframes does Sunwing currently have on XL summer contracts?
I know of one.
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Old 4th Sep 2008, 15:28
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An article in USA Today indicated that a one stop flight may be quite a bit cheaper than a non-stop.
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Old 5th Sep 2008, 00:14
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***REMOVED***



Planett - perhaps I saw a massive level of arrogance in Willies posts. you cant go around the industry shooting your mouth off and not have it come back at you one day.



WJP

Last edited by WJAPilot; 5th Sep 2008 at 16:40.
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Old 5th Sep 2008, 03:09
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WJAPilot,

I've read Willie's posts, I don't think they deserved a bush league response like yours. Are you a fan of burning books too?

Would you now assasinate my character at the hiring board if you could?
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Old 9th Sep 2008, 16:24
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Sure WJA pilot won't throttle anyone looking for a gig

XL might get swallowed by EZY - but rumours only at this point. If it goes through, the SWG 738s are westward bound at any rate.

Another interesting point - EZY took over GeeBee last year, so I guess another acquisition is not beyond the realms of fantasy...

With Futura and Gael about to go under, Europe looks unsteady, and some commentators think the Spanair MD-82 tragedy will even unhook SAS...

Thoughts anyone ?
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Old 9th Sep 2008, 22:08
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WJA Pilot
...assuming you're at WJA...I'm not looking to offend anyone with my remarks in this thread. A personal apology if I did.

However, I can assure you, I've been flying long enough to know 'arrogance' is not my M.O. (some of my short posts may suggest otherwise, sorry about that) If I want to tangle with anyone on this forum, there will be no doubts when I let fly.

WJA has had a great quarter.
WJA has a good management team.
WJA has a great group of employees.
WJA is good at what they do.
That puts them in the same basket as a good many other LCCs. PeoplExpress comes to mind, to mention just one. (maybe you're thinkin' Southwest? Different market, different population, different demigraphic to WJA altogether)

You should know however, there are no guarantees of a tomorrow for WJA, or any other carrier for that matter. No surprise in that statement. That's not arrogance as much as it is obvious. It's airline reality. Even in the great white north. Even in the great province of Oilberta. Margins at WJA are what they are. Thin. Passengers, whether or not you've been paying attention, are fed up with getting hosed by CATSA, GC, TC and Fuel surcharges, it ain't going to work much longer.

(by the way, I'm not making this up)

If you TRULY are a pilot with WJA, make sure you stay tuned to WJA performance. Don't fall asleep at the switch and continued success.

Willie
"Lord of the Flys"

Last edited by Willie Everlearn; 9th Sep 2008 at 22:22.
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Old 10th Sep 2008, 23:05
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WE

"Margins at WJA are what they are. Thin."

Westjet has the best margins in the business. They approach 14% , almost unheard of in this business.

You might want to research the facts before you regale us with your opinion.



.
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Old 12th Sep 2008, 10:06
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It's all over for XL as of 0100 UTC.
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Old 12th Sep 2008, 18:07
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doo
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Hope XL loss doesn't affect u guys too much.
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Old 12th Sep 2008, 18:28
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Sunwing announces enhanced agreements with aviation suppliers

Sunwing announces enhanced agreements with aviation suppliers: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

One quote:
Sunwing already has agreements in place with three other European airlines for seasonal movement of aircraft and crews, replacing previous agreements with XL Airways."
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Old 12th Sep 2008, 19:19
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They must have had this backup plan in the works to be able to announce it so fast. I wonder if those agreements will include Sunwing pilots being deployed to those European operators in the summer as they have for Excel for the past few years?
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Old 13th Sep 2008, 00:09
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royal terrace ...news flash.

This is an opinion Forum. I gave an opinion. I don't care if anyone agrees or disagrees. It's only my opinion.
I'm glad you disagree.

WJA had a very strong quarter. On a 14% margin (if that's the figure?) was quite impressive. If you think that's a cushy margin, great. Good for WJA. While they're not likely to go out of business anytime soon the potential is still there and that was part of my simple point. Rising fuel prices, rising ticket prices, additional charges for services, punitive CATSA charges. The consumer will/has reached the limit.
Air Canada could go out of business. Possible. But not likely. We'll see.
Not many expected to see the likes of TWA, Pan Am, Eastern, Sabena crash and burn. Did they? But you could almost see it coming. Particularly with deregulation. (I sometimes wonder if we all wouldn't be better off re-regulating or at least partially re-regulating)

Alitalia? Care to speculate on their future?

Sunwings, however, is not a WJA. Neither is CJA. I.T. is the slimmest margin in the industry. XL had a sample of it today. I'm not sure that picking up the remnants is a wise move as those slim margins only prolong the inevitable. The LCC isn't that far behind in margin or fate. WJA appears to be changing its' raison d'etre and many LCCs caution it's the changing of their lot in life that most threatens their existance.
You know as well as I, the low fuel ($$$) level warning is on for many of these carriers. It's just a question of who runs out and who almost runs out. Isn't it?

This is all purely speculation on my part. I could be so far off the mark it's ridiculous. But I might also be spot on the bullseye. For me, it's the speculating that's fun and the joy it brings when things turn out as predicted.
(it's also, the joy it brings when things don't turn out as predicted)

Willie
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Old 13th Sep 2008, 14:17
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Possible Bad news for Sunwing?

Wille.....I would agree that one quarter's profitability doesn't make an airline...however, if you are interested in reality rather than conjecture, here are the actual WJ operating margins for the past 10 quarters, based on KPMG audited numbers.

3Q 2008 (EST) 18%
2Q 2008 9.1%
1Q 2008 13.7%
4Q 2007 15.2%
3Q 2007 22.1%
2Q 2007 14.7%
1Q 2007 13.6%
4Q 2006 15.1%
3Q 2006 19.5%
2Q 2006 13.5%
1Q 2006 10.8%

Indeed, I think you will find that since 1996, WJ has had a total of 4 quarters where they didn't earn a net profit and one of those was when they wrote off the 737-200 fleet. They even made money in 4Q 2001.

Only Southwest in North America can match or beat that run. No one else is even close.

WJ has grown asm's 58% in the period.

The other major airline in Canada's margins in 2006 were 2.6%, in 2007 it was 4.6% and 2008 so far -.1%.


Last edited by Speedboat; 13th Sep 2008 at 14:31.
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 18:19
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Speedboat

Thanks for the numbers. Sorry, EXCELLENT numbers.
I seriously doubt the Sunwings of this world are even close to those numbers.
We'll see.

As for WJA's future....we'll see.
Switching from LCC to major airline could be their demise. Which isn't going to be tomorrow, is it? Despite the "talk".
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Old 14th Sep 2008, 20:53
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Obviously the Sunwing CEO is gonna make a "positive" annoucement. What do you want him to say... "Sunwing is FU**ED!"

I dont think XL will effect Sunwing as much as the cost of fuel and the economic slow-down will, that to with 7 or 8 aircraft...

As for Diversifying... hahaha.... Does ExpressJet ring a bell to anyone!!!!
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