Icarus2001
Using soap and water for the oxygen bottle leak detection test is not the correct procedure. Impurities from soap residual can corrode a valve. The proper method is to use an approved leak detector fluid. |
dr dre
Suggest you read the manual. Take note of the location of the crew oxygen bottle and the equipment adjacent to it. Suggest you refresh up on the effects of hypoxia and previous hypoxia related flights such as Helios 522, Payne Stewart’s Lear Jet, VH-SKC and Kalitta 66. Suggest you review the benefits of an autopilot If the crew has programmed a diversion to Banda Aceh via VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM-SANOB-BAC, the autopilot will follow this route, further inputs by the crew are not required for the aircraft to turn south from SANOB to Banda Aceh. |
Originally Posted by GBO
(Post 11348249)
Suggest you refresh up on the effects of hypoxia and previous hypoxia related flights such as Helios 522, Payne Stewart’s Lear Jet, VH-SKC and Kalitta 66.
If the crew has programmed a diversion to Banda Aceh via VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM-SANOB-BAC, the autopilot will follow this route, further inputs by the crew are not required for the aircraft to turn south from SANOB to Banda Aceh. Suggest you get a pilot's licence then years of experience of an airline pilot before posting your "theories" again. |
MH 370 is truly the gift that keeps on giving.
I encourage you all to remain civil to one another - as usual, please disagree without being disagreeable - as this discussion continues. |
I like GBO’s thinking. I too think the O2 bottle rupture caused the cascade of failures. I differ from GBO and conclude the decompression caused the pilots to be incapacitated within say, 10 minutes…..the subsequent turns can be explained by an autopilot off flight. Of course, the first turn was manually executed before the pilots became hypoxic. Not only is the aircraft flying autopilot off, but it is also in ‘secondary flying control mode’. In this case I think a B777 is stable enough, both laterally and longitudinally, to continue until fuel exhaustion.
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Originally Posted by birdspeed
(Post 11348635)
and conclude the decompression caused the pilots to be incapacitated within say, 10 minutes
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OK. Plausible enough theory, along with many others.
A couple of things are a little difficult to understand. F/O finds time to try and use his phone but makes no effort on VHF? No idea about 777 but every other modern aircraft I’ve flown has at least one box powered by an emergency bus. No idea if this is true but anecdotally , I’ve always been told that smokers are more resilient to hypoxia, something about their systems being hardened to low O2 environments. Cascading / multiple faults always give me pause - the chances of such occurrences are infinitesimal. Not to say impossible, but rather other simpler theories are more attractive. Nevertheless, super interesting analysis by GBO. Thank you for sharing. Indeed, locating the FDR and CVR of MH370 can’t come soon enough - there is much to learn. Although, one wonders if after 10 years of immersion they will yield any data. |
Originally Posted by Capt Fathom
(Post 11348661)
Could you explain why the crew didn’t commence an emergency descent at the first sign of decompression?
By the time they had made the turn back to Penang they were going hypoxic, having now donned their masks but getting no O2 they didn’t accomplish any emergency descent. Not the usual scenario you might practice in the Sim ! |
Originally Posted by lucille
(Post 11348667)
OK. Plausible enough theory, along with many others.
And as for the pilot murder/suicide idea, complete rubbish. Only propagated by the media and people who don’t understand the inner workings of a B777. Agreed, it is a complicated cascade of multiple failures, but all initiated by a simple single source of failure. |
I don't often agree with Dre, but his point is valid - O2 failure does NOT explain the repeated course changes the aircraft made - and if a hypoxic pilot somehow managed to program all that in the computer before passing out - why would he input that course (which conveniently skirts around ground radar coverage).
My personal favorite theory is that it was some sort of planned hijack/hostage taking (or kidnapping) plan that went wrong. One pilot intentionally depressurized the aircraft to keep the passengers from making a ruckus, overdid it, and when he realized everyone was dead, he pointed the aircraft towards the most remote bit of ocean he could come up with, and then turned off his own O2. But like all the others, it's just a theory at this point. BTW, if the black boxes are ever found (and are still functional), I seriously doubt the CVR will have anything useful left - it was so long after whatever was the initiating event that any info would have been written over. The FDR would be the best hope. |
Lucille
If the Left ARINC 629 / AMU is inoperative, all radio calls are inoperative. The only option available is a cell phone. The FO sitting in the right hand cockpit seat is in the ideal position (zero Doppler) for his phone to connect with the Penang cell phone tower (Grain Loaf Bakery), as the aircraft made a gentle turn to the right, south of Penang. tdracer MH370 didn’t skirt around ground radar, it did the opposite. From IGARI the aircraft has remained at altitude and diverted west INTO range of multiple primary radar sites: Kota Bharu, Hat Yai, Phuket, Butterworth, Penang Hill, Medan, Lhokseumawe, Sabang, Sibolga. dr dre Time until hypoxia is greater in a gradual decompression compared to an explosive decompression. Gradual decompression events are insidious in nature, they can easily go undetected. |
GBO. Why is there a gradual decompression? Are you saying an exploding crew oxygen cylinder blows only a small hole in the fuselage?
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So this happened to a Learjet,.but I still think it's an applicable example of what happens during severe hypoxia:
Possibly a feature of the MH370 incident.? Dunno. |
Originally Posted by GBO
(Post 11348749)
Time until hypoxia is greater in a gradual decompression compared to an explosive decompression. Gradual decompression events are insidious in nature, they can easily go undetected.
So even if this "magic oxygen bottle" exists it still doesn't match with known evidence. QF30's ruptured oxygen bottle caused an almost instantaneous loss of all cabin pressure when it breached the fuselage. The incident with the Kalitta Learjet in the previous video lasted a grand total of a few minutes, from the pilot descending from FL320 to a more breathable FL110. A few minutes, the time of useful consciousness at FL320 is about 1-2 minutes, so even though he was slurring his words (hypoxia effect) he had just a minute or two to get the aircraft down to more breathable air before he lost the motor skill capacity to make control inputs. MH370 was at FL350, wher time of useful consciousness is about 30 seconds. Yet the decompression story requires us to believe that a pilot stayed conscious in that environment for almost an hour with no supplemental oxygen then made a control input to turn the aircraft to the south? Simply not believable. |
Capt Fathom
Based on the adjacent equipment failures associated with a rupturing oxygen bottle and fuel analysis, I predict that the cause of the gradual decompression is a pressurisation system failure. Given the last ACARS report at 1706:43: FL350, M0.82, Fuel on board 43800 kg Then for the actual weather conditions and a PDA of 1.5% from the aircraft’s OFP, a diversion from IGARI to the last radar point (10 NM NW of MEKAR at 1822:12) at FL340/M0.84 would equate to fuel remaining at 1822:12 as 35109kg. If the aircraft was to maintain this speed and total fuel burn rate of approx 6900kg/hr, it is not going to remain airborne until the 7th arc time of 0019:29UTC. But, if the aircraft slows to the ECON desc speed as it passes the Top Of Desc point to Banda Aceh, but maintains FL340 (everyone’s deceased), the fuel flow reduces to 6200kg/hr and then down to 5600kg/hr as weight reduces, the aircraft can remain airborne until arc 7, but ONLY IF both bleed air systems have failed since IGARI, and remained failed until 0019:29! |
So if all the previous decompression/hypoxia incidents quoted support the theory of slow pilot incapacitation, why doesn't Silk Air, Egypt Air and German Wings support the theory that the pilot was responsible for the aircraft tracking out over the Indian Ocean until it run out of fuel?
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
(Post 11348788)
So if all the previous decompression/hypoxia incidents quoted support the theory of slow pilot incapacitation, why doesn't Silk Air, Egypt Air and German Wings support the theory that the pilot was responsible for the aircraft tracking out over the Indian Ocean until it run out of fuel?
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Originally Posted by GBO
(Post 11347996)
BuzzBox
The Flight simulator is inconclusive and has many flaws. They just cherry picked waypoints, which didn’t have timestamps and stitched a path together. The waypoints could be from multiple sessions. The last waypoint in the southern Indian Ocean were it ran out of fuel was supposedly flown in a PSS B777, the major problem with this is, the PSS B777 is not compatible with FSX. So how can the first waypoints be in FSX? The flight sim data, if true, is pretty damning for the captain. I can't see a clear reason that the FBI would concoct evidence, but I CAN see why people would want to discredit it. |
Originally Posted by Capt Fathom
(Post 11348755)
GBO. Why is there a gradual decompression? Are you saying an exploding crew oxygen cylinder blows only a small hole in the fuselage.
The principle of Occam's Razor has been mentioned a few times. This principle is often misunderstood and misused by the ignorant. The principle is not intended in and of itself to rule out more complex theories with extreme prejudice. The principle is simply a preference in an approach for the more easily testable theories to be examined first. The failure of a single light bulb once led to the loss of an L-1011. You could draw a straight line between the start and end. It is easily arguable that a single and fairly straightforward mechanical failure cascading into a series of secondary and HF failures leading to a hull loss is a much more simple theory than a conspiracy (or singular plan) to commit suicide, destroy an airliner and kill hundreds crew and passengers while following a weird but pre-determined flight path. In fact it is fascinating that the same people rubbishing as conspiracy-theorists anyone on other threads making counter-claims of any sort to do with pandemic happenings are now conspiracy-theorising themselves. So why did he or they do it? We've heard all sorts of rumours, none substantiated; a conspiracy theory postulating a deliberate action needs development which hasn't been provided. Also, the flight sim game theory just doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Where's your tin hat? While you're at it, who was behind 9/11? Who killed JFK? GBO's theory is definitely on the right track. GBO, where'd you get this theory of yours? Please post a link. |
Originally Posted by GBO
(Post 11348235)
The SATCOM is powered by the left Main AC bus. With so many left systems down following an oxygen bottle rupture, conducting the Left Main AC bus checklist will repower SATCOM.
But, if the aircraft slows to the ECON desc speed as it passes the Top Of Desc point to Banda Aceh, but maintains FL340 (everyone’s deceased), the fuel flow reduces to 6200kg/hr and then down to 5600kg/hr as weight reduces, the aircraft can remain airborne until arc 7, but ONLY IF both bleed air systems have failed since IGARI, and remained failed until 0019:29! |
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