MH370 - "new" news
 

Seems the ATSB has been working quietly behind the scenes

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...YWMHRCNFGG7DE/

Some discussion on WSPR & MH370 last year
https://www.pprune.org/australia-new...ere-mh370.html

What's known in the PR game as a "hose down",

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/news-i...ircraft-mh370/

I've made the observation elsewhere on a previous occasion but I'll make it again here:

MH 370 will never be found, as there are certain 'authorities' who do not wish it to be found. Ever!!:=

I didn’t know that MH470 was also missing.

Far out there’s a lot of conspirators amongst aviation.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c5261c8c87.jpg
Here you go, DIY hat kit for ya.

The effect of 8 years of inflation.

That supposes that those authorities can control third and fourth party efforts to find the hull, they cannot.

Wake up! Why do you think we’ve never even *heard* of MH470? Who do you think wants us not to know?

Correction
 

Daily Mail and Times are reporting today that one of the landing gear doors has probably been found. Link is the Mail as the Times is paywalled
MH370 Landing Gear report

There are a number of flaws in the reasoning that concludes that that recovered debris is from the main landing gear door. For starters, its external surface is the wrong colour. Further, it doesn't appear to have the correct structure - it appears to be too thin. As to the analysis that the doors were open and the debris was struck by separating fan blades, that's fanciful. If the doors were open the blade strike would be from the outside in, not from the inside out.

So cryptic. Come on Pinky, tell us what you know! I promise men in black won’t come for you (although men in white coats might)

Otherwise, we might think that you really have no extra knowledge and are just too embarrassed to actually write your theory down

Oh come on you lot!!:*No I do not, nor ever have, claimed to have any extra knowledge!
I will give all of you the benefit of the doubt and assume (and I'm taking a long bow) that your posts are not wind-ups.
But are you all really so thick that you cannot see the obvious?:confused:

Let us just assume then that the wreckage is found, the FDR recovered and it is found beyond any doubt, or even just possibly, that the whole event was a deliberate act by the PIC.

Cannot you hear the sounds of Lawyers salivating/sharpening their knives/ordering a new Mercedes etc etc etc?

Any Legal proceedings upon this matter would be drawn out for many many years........
Not to mention the Asian 'loss of face' culture.

So, JustinHeywood and others; Your opinions please? Oh, and minus the sarcasm merely due to an unfortunate typo on my part, if you please.

MH 370. New evidence?
 

You want my opinion? But I’m not the one playing secret squirrel.

How do you know MH370 “will never be found” and who are the “certain authorities” you are referring to? Why don’t you come out and tell us?
Pinky, your post certainly hinted at some personal insight into what happened.

As far as I’m aware, NOBODY knows what happened that night on MH370. As far as I’m aware there is no actual evidence of conspiracy, although I’ve read a couple of laughable books trying to promote theories, based on pretty wild assumptions.

Unless this new piece has a serial number or some other identifiable mark on it then it will be nothing more than ocean rubbish.

This new report is extremely flawed. It is more likely that they have started with a pre-conceived pilot hijacking scenario and tried to bash this evidence into the hole.



Maybe they should look at the evidence first and then arrive at the most likely scenario and endpoint.



Prior to departure the oxygen bottle was serviced by Malaysia.

There wasn’t any change in behaviour as the crew passed through security. They are observed smoking prior to departure.

The aircraft departed KL and climbed to FL350/Mach 0.82

During the turn at IGARI, the transponder ceased transmission.

Aircraft turns back at about 25 degrees angle of bank, descends to FL340 and accelerates to Mach 0.84, flies in heading mode or manually until south of Penang.

Observed on primary radar by multiple Malaysian and Thai radar sites. Inherent errors in primary radar displays incorrect and unrealistic altitude changes.

No ACARS received, no comms received. No SATCOM log off.

Manually deleting the Flight ID would record a SATCOM log off.

FO cell phone connects to a cell tower when aircraft south of Penang at 1752:27.

Aircraft diverts to VAMPI-MEKAR-NILAM in LNAV still at Mach 0.84/FL340.

SATCOM call made TO aircraft via Indian Ocean satellite but can’t connect via the aircraft’s left High Gain Antenna at 18:03.

At 1822:12, the aircraft is 10 NM NW of MEKAR and leaves Malaysian primary radar range.

All Indonesian primary radar recordings at Lhokseumawe, Medan, Sabang and Sibolga are not available!

At 1825:27, aircraft initiates a SATCOM logon request to Indian Ocean Satellite. No Flight ID received from aircraft.

Aircraft must be heading south by 1840 to comply with satellite BTO / BFO data.

SATCOM call made TO aircraft at 1840, it connects but is not answered.

Approximately every hour, the satellite confirms that the aircraft is still on line, this timing can determine the aircraft’s distance (the 7 arcs) from the satellite.

Seven hours after the disappearance, the aircraft initiates a SATCOM log on. Again there isn’t a flight ID, and the aircraft is descending between 5000 to 15000 feet per minute.

Around 36 pieces of debris have been found from just about every part of the plane.

Debris barnacle analysis finds optimum sea temperature range for barnacle growth between 18-24C.

Debris drift analysis finds locations south of Latitude 40S and north of Latitude 20S unlikely.

Confirmed debris analysed by the ATSB confirms flaps where not deployed at the end of flight.



Now for the most likely scenario and endpoint.

The topped up crew oxygen bottle ruptured due to poor maintenance practices by Malaysia. (Soap and water for leak detection tests!)

The adjacent P105 Left Wire Integration Panel and Left AIMS Cabinet is obliterated.

The crew are overwhelmed and bombarded with left systems failures, ie no left transponder, no left FMC, no left HGA, no left Autothrottle, DU failures, no AMU, no ACARS, etc

The crew divert to the nearest suitable airport (Penang) at the default LRC speed of M0.84 and appropriate altitude.

They start to run checklists and problem solve.

FO turns on cell phone to call for help.

Approaching Penang, they manually switch to the right FMC, the software reset deletes the Flight ID.

Without the valid landing altitude data, the cabin altitude warning message shows at 15,000 feet, not 10,000 feet. And unfortunately for the crew, they have missed the gradual decompression event and start to become hypoxic (earlier for smokers). Mentally confused they program a diversion to Banda Aceh airport via NILAM and SANOB.

They eventually succumbed to hypoxia and pass out.

A flight attendant on portable oxygen attempts to revive the pilots, but can’t. The oxygen masks for the pilots are connected to… the ruptured oxygen bottle!

All occupants peacefully pass out from hypoxia.

The aircraft continues on autopilot. At Top Of Descent to Banda Aceh, the serviceable right Autothrottle slows the aircraft to the descent speed, the inop left throttle remains at the high power setting for Mach 0.84

As the aircraft turns left at NILAM towards SANOB, the aircraft switches from the failed left high gain antenna to the serviceable right high gain antenna, mounted on the right side of the aircraft, since the satellite is now on the right side of the aircraft (direction to satellite is about 262 degrees true). The aircraft can finally initiate a renewed log on with all occupants deceased (arc 1). The aircraft overflies Banda Aceh heading south, where it reverts to heading MAGNETIC at the end of route. (Note Indonesia is not releasing primary radar data)

The aircraft passes all arcs on time, meets BFO data, meets actual wind/temperature recordings, meets fuel exhaustion precisely, communicates with the satellite via the right HGA, conforms with autopilot constraints, meets barnacle analysis, meets drift analysis, and meets debris damage observed.

Where the ATSB search went wrong was they kept pushing the pilot suicide constant speed/switch to constant true heading solution, because a constant speed/constant magnetic heading overshoots arc 6 and 7 due to the changing magnetic variation in the southern Indian Ocean.

BUT… if you consider the accident scenario (oxygen bottle rupture) with the crew trying to save the plane, then due to the massive thrust lever differential at top of descent to Banda Aceh, the left engine runs out of fuel up to an HOUR earlier than the right! Due to envelope protection features, the slower single engine speed during the last hour now causes the aircraft to crash at the seventh arc at around 34 South 93 East, when the right engine flames out and autopilot disengages.

Auto engine restart momentarily powers SATCOM causing log on (arc 7).

The aircraft hits the water at high velocity and out of control.

The ATSB only searched about 2NM inside the arc at 34S 93E, because it concentrated the search at 38 South 88 East out to 40 NM wide.

Really?

Are you sure this is not just another one of those tedious, annual exposes by Channel Nine, who would have to be the most egregious tabloid outfit in the country, where we have yet another string of experts arguing around a conference table with a presenter who doesn't know sh-t about aviation posing obvious questions for effect and then a separate segment with Danica (I really do feel sorry for the woman and her family but her credibility is starting to be strained by her popping up every year, crying on queue then lamenting how her life has been affected THEN announcing EVERY TIME, that "if this is true, then it's a game-changer").

The program ends with no result, the whole thing is faded out to dramatic music an then nothing for 12 months until Nine decides it's that time of year again to trot out poor Danica, have her cry for a minute then declare the latest fallacy is a 'game-changer' then the experts argue, fade to black, shelved again for another 12 months.

This is becoming tedious. The Earth is mostly covered by water which is miles deep in many locations. It took 70+ years to find Amelia Earhart's aircraft so anyone that thinks this is going to be found any time soon is smoking some of the good stuff.

This made for a fascinating read, and has merit. My only question is what proof, if any, do you have of faulty maintenance on oxygen bottle? Or is your analysis and interpretation based on maintenance history in general by said airline?

Surely snare sheets would have been presented and reviewed?

Interviews with maintenance personnel?

Interviews with other flight crew?

It's an interesting interpretation though and has some real deep thought involved.

I agree this latest report is flawed. Regarding the theory you proposed, what evidence do you have for the following:

​​​​​​​

search for MH 370
 

The MAS B777, will never be found, why, cause the experts have never lived in Malaysia and do not know the Malaysian way of thinking and " Loss of Face "
AA
Ex. MAS

Excellent post GBO.

Possible extra failures to consider are….

Loss of flight instrument screens due to the power coming from TRUs in the vicinity of the bottles. TRUs located in E3 rack.

Loss of pitot/static feeds to the flight instruments causing flight controls to drop to ‘secondary mode’. Causing autopilot and autothrottle to fail. The aircraft could then just meander on with no one at the controls. Its natural stability keeping the aircraft roughly straight and level.

So just coincidence that the aircraft flew along the the FIR boundary?

We should ignore the flight sim track details on the home PC of the Captain?

Icarus2001…it flew towards Penang, exactly where a pilot with a sick aircraft would point his aircraft.

The official Malaysian report has stated there are normal gaming activities on the simulator. Only the FBI managed to recreate a suspicious looking route by cherry picking a selected handful of data points from the hard drives.

It paralleled the Malaysian/Thai FIR boundary. That in itself could have been luck however the boundary had a kink in it which MH370 conviently turned and paralleled out to the open ocean.

BuzzBox

”Manually deleting the flight ID would record a SATCOM log off” - see Safety Information Report.

”Without the valid landing altitude data, the cabin altitude warning message shows at 15,000 feet” - see 777 Training Manual 21-30-00 p 38


Icarus2001

MH370 only momentarily followed the Malaysian/Thai border on its diversion to Penang. That was the standard route from Kota Bharu to Penang back in 2014. Note, 30 minutes later, MH6163 flew the exact same route from Kota Bharu to Penang along the border.

The Flight simulator is inconclusive and has many flaws. They just cherry picked waypoints, which didn’t have timestamps and stitched a path together. The waypoints could be from multiple sessions. The last waypoint in the southern Indian Ocean were it ran out of fuel was supposedly flown in a PSS B777, the major problem with this is, the PSS B777 is not compatible with FSX. So how can the first waypoints be in FSX?

Momentarily huh?

​​​​​​​ What is the correct procedure?

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6fe9418ee0.png

I thought the full moon was last week! :confused:

So an oxygen bottle ruptured which took out the exact systems that tracked and communicated the aircraft’s position but left every other system necessary for flying the aircraft perfectly intact? Somehow a gradual decompression (even though any fuselage rupture would cause a more than gradual decompression) that went unnoticed by the crew, causing them become unconscious before the cabin altitude warning went off for the first time in history (or did this magical explosion specifically knock out the cabin warning too?). They were aware enough to program a track to Aceh over Penang but too incapacitated to descend, the slightly more critical thing. And then an hour after this magical decompression managed to program the FMC or change heading to turn 90 degrees south past the northern tip of Sumatra, even though in your own story you admit the pilots are dead at this stage?

I suggest you read up on Occam’s Razor.

I think there was a fire as happened on the ground - one that left the cockpit uninhabitable in seconds. The ground fire was so intense it could not be put out by the ground fire fighters for (I think) 30 minutes. The flight control computers are below the floor; mainly the controls will be at risk to a localized fire.It explains the climb as the pilots would be desperate to quench a fire behind a panel the extinguishers could not reach and there would be insufficient time to land before being forced from the controls even if by toxic smoke rather than heat. On the ground the fire burned a hole through the fuselage. That hole would disrupt the airflow a little, causing the plane, in free flight, to pull slightly to one side, a long curving course, although a slight thrust mismatch would do the same. Did the plane encounter a different wind direction or rising air that caused the turn?

The cascade of events from an oxygen fed fire are consistent. Others just don't appear to be.

I really hope that is (badly written) satire.

What are you smoking guys?

So you think MH370 suffered an undetected ground fire (that then was fought by firefighters for 30 minutes - your story doesn’t make sense?). The fire then re-ignited after flight, incapacitated the crew and burned through the transponder but left all the other systems intact? Then the incapacitated crew still managed to alter course 4 times in over an hour to navigate around the northern tip of Sumatra but a tiny hole burned into the fuselage caused an imbalance in airflow directing the aircraft to the middle of the ocean?

I suggest you too read up on Occam’s razor.

The problem with these fantastical “decompression caused hypoxic pilots and erratic actions” and “smoke caused incapacitated pilots and erratic actions” stories is that MH370 was out of contact and under deliberate control for one hour until disappearing off the Indonesian coast. Someone was conscious in the flight deck and making control inputs but not communicating. Smoke inhalation incapacitates someone in at most a few minutes, decompression even in the best case scenario within 10 minutes.

Separating the outlandish variables leads to deliberate actions as the cause.

In my mind trying to find the wreckage is only going to confirm the pilot action theory. The CVR would’ve been overwritten so all that’ll be left is the FDR confirming pilot inputs. It won’t tell us WHY that decision was made.

The real investigation needs to be the family, friends, associates, internet usage, reports of the pilots (esp the Captain) starting from years before the crash.

Thank you, GBO, for that excellent theory. While it appears a complex series of actions anyone who knows anything about aircraft systems understands the cascading effect a single catastrophic system failure can have on other systems.

Where did you read this? I'd be interested to follow their input more deeply and in particular on the technical explanation of such a (or fitting) bottle failure.

What still mystifies me is why no apparent signals from the ELT, ULB and the ULB,s on either the CVR or the FDR.

Because they're short range and (relatively) short-lived.. designed for location either on land or relatively close to it within a few days of impact - not in the middle of absolutely nowhere at the bottom of a very deep ocean.

Erm, no. The fire had the same origin as the ground fire on a different plane. Not sure where the confusion comes from. I believe this plane suffered that same failure in-flight.

There's no evidence it was under deliberate control for any hour's time. They didn't draw a giant penis in the sky or spell out "GOODBYE". Things on fire might have wires melt, short circuit, make unexpected connections. Also, there are air currents that rise over islands and would nudge the plane away from them. no need for someone to be at the controls for that. The lines in the diagram look to be fit to far too few data points.

The hole explains the slight curve to the apparent long path not the irregular path before then.

For a pilot to do this would require disabling, killing, or locking out the other flight crew member, and there would have had ample chance to chop through the door to regain access. It seems unlikely for this to have continued for so long. (Note to self - if the pilot purposely depressurizes the plane without explanation, open the cabin doors and kick the slides and ELRBs out as markers while the hand-held oxygen cylinder holds out. Maybe that will trigger an emergency response from Navy or Air Force.)

While they may not find data on the CVR - they may very well find the memory chips from some of the hundred cell phones that people could have recorded their last moments on. If there had been violence, many of those cell phones would have been detected even if calls could not go through from making panicked calls to loved ones.

Thanks, I hadn't seen that before, despite operating the B777 for almost 10 years. It's included in the Maintenance Training Manual, but apparently it wasn't considered important enough for the FCOM.

If I'm not mistaken, under your scenario the Satcom SDU remains powered throughout and the logon request at 1825:27 is explained by the right HGA coming into view of the satellite as the aircraft turned. If that were the case, how do you explain the abnormal BFO that was recorded for the log-on transmissions from the aircraft? The MH370 Safety Investigation Report concluded that it was most likely due to the power-on drift of the SDU OCXO, which endorsed the investigators' belief that the 1825:27 log-on was preceded by a lengthy power interruption.

4 changes of course.

One to head back towards Malaysia

One overhead Penang to track toward the Andaman sea about 30 minutes later,

Then probably a third to track south west towards the Indian Ocean and a fourth event further south. But at least 3 deliberate course changes that happened about 30 minutes after each other.

An inflight Fire will make an aircraft uncontrollable within 30 minutes.

If the A/P is disconnected the plane will enter a spiral dive within seconds.

That text confirms to me you are not an airline pilot in several ways.

… what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

BuzzBox

The BFO does display an overshoot and settling period during the 1825 log on. My research found that the log on is both due to a repowering of SATCOM and then finally exposure of the right HGA to recommence the log on. The BFO overshoot sequence doesn’t actually match the previous logons, since the first BFO is correct and doesn’t display an overshoot.
The SATCOM is powered by the left Main AC bus. With so many left systems down following an oxygen bottle rupture, conducting the Left Main AC bus checklist will repower SATCOM.