PPRuNe Forums

PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific-90/)
-   -   much of world reopening in March 2021 (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/638171-much-world-reopening-march-2021-a.html)

Pinky the pilot 3rd Feb 2021 04:16


My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.
I have had several Medicos and Nurses quietly say to me much the same. And some of those consider various Goverments reactions to be way over the top!



WingNut60 3rd Feb 2021 04:28


Originally Posted by Pinky the pilot (Post 10982212)
I have had several Medicos and Nurses quietly say to me much the same. And some of those consider various Goverments reactions to be way over the top!

But in Australia it is very different, 0.34% vs 3.1% for confirmed cases.
And if you want to factor in unconfirmed & asymptomatic cases then you need to do it for both.

When was the last time that you can remember 700+ influenza deaths in Victoria over an eight week period while at the same time everyone was in lockdown?

itsnotthatbloodyhard 3rd Feb 2021 04:42

This discussion of death rates also ignores other long-term effects, which sound a lot nastier for Covid than the flu.

krismiler 3rd Feb 2021 04:43

In 2019 it was estimated that there were 29 000 people with HIV in Australia with new infections running at around 800 per year. Back in the 1980s, AIDS was a virtual death sentence, now it’s under control. We learnt to live with it and treatments were developed.

COVID will be the same and we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations, at least for the next few years. Travel passes will be needed to fly internationally, possibly with some degree of tracking. Social distancing will be the new normal, hygiene levels will be increased and contactless will be the way of doing things as far as possible.

I get my second jab this weekend and whilst I will still have regular testing it will be less frequent. I fully expect to get vaccinated again in 12 months with the vaccine optimised for the new strains that emerged since my last dose.

Around the middle of the year, enough people will have been inoculated in developed countries for there to be a semblance of normality and an easing of restrictions.

dr dre 3rd Feb 2021 04:50


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10982196)
My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.

This has to be debunked every couple of weeks.

UK average yearly flu deaths 600-13000
UK Covid deaths in 11 months 108,000

France average yearly flu deaths 10,000-15,000
France Covid deaths in 11.5 months 77,000

US average yearly flu deaths 12,000-51,000
US Covid deaths in 11.5 months 457,000

All that information is readily available.

Icarus2001 3rd Feb 2021 05:29

Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.


When was the last time that you can remember 700+ influenza deaths in Victoria over an eight week period while at the same time everyone was in lockdown?
When was the last time it was reported? That is how you would know and remember it.

How often are suicide figures reported in Australia? How often are road deaths reported? Which number is bigger?

Spoiler alert: Road deaths for Australia 2020 just under 1100. Suicide deaths Australia 2020: 3300

WingNut60 3rd Feb 2021 05:49


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10982234)
Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.

Do you honestly think that 700 influenza deaths in a couple of months would go unreported?

And you think that the bulk of the 700 were all at deaths door and would have died within days anyway?
If your argument relies on grey wiggly area then I'll let you have a few sq cms.
Lots? Definitely not.

dr dre 3rd Feb 2021 06:19


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10982234)
Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.

Not really. WHO classifications on what constitutes a Covid death:

INTERNATIONAL GUIDELINES FOR CERTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION (CODING) OF COVID-19 AS CAUSE OF DEATH

Debunking the conspiracies that if you test positive for Covid and then die in a car crash your death will be recorded as a Covid death. If you have terminal cancer and die with Covid? Was it Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome or Pneumonia bought on by Covid that contributed to your death? Then yes Covid will be listed as an underlying factor. If not then it won't.

C'mon you need to start looking up facts yourself and not ask questions that hint at baseless conspiracies. Rational answers are all out there if you bother to look.

Momoe 3rd Feb 2021 07:07

Dr Dre,

Extract from the document you attached

"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
Covid deaths are being over reported as a result of this - during the height of the first wave, any death with any COVID symptoms had the head sealed, body bagged and removed for interment, NO autopsy.

My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.

morno 3rd Feb 2021 07:15

I think you’ve lost Icarus

Stick Flying 3rd Feb 2021 07:29


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 10982201)
But that's just a guess.

Please don't go "guessing" just to justify your argument. Its disingenuous to guess when you are debating. All the scientific modelling I've seen by puts the IFR towards 1%. That makes your guess 400% WRONG. Its guesses like that which end up on social media (you know, the place where everybody can be an scientist) and before you know it it becomes a Karen/Ken fact. Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.

dr dre 3rd Feb 2021 07:31


Originally Posted by Momoe (Post 10982283)
Covid deaths are being over reported

My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.

Actually most evidence points to the UK undercounting their death toll:

Using death certificates is the more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid-19. This is because it counts every single death that has involved coronavirus in the UK. It is a more accurate indicator of what might have led to someone’s death, rather than a rule based simply on the number of days since a positive test. By contrast, the government’s method of only counting deaths with 28 days of a positive test is less comprehensive.

It does not include people who died more than 28 days after testing positive - even if those people spent that entire period in hospital and had Covid-19 marked on their death certificate. It also excludes anyone who did not have a positive Covid-19 test. Because of this, it undercounts the number of Covid-19 deaths that occurred during the first months of the pandemic, when only a minority of people were being tested.
Why the UK’s Covid death toll has passed 100,000 a second time

Icarus2001 3rd Feb 2021 08:00


I think you’ve lost Icarus
No I am keeping up but I have an open mind. Except when it comes to this lock down in Perth for ONE case. I was expecting by Tuesday there may be 20-30 cases but even today no extra cases. The damage and stress from locking people down is unnecessary. I feel it is a massive over reaction. How about just explain the facts to people and advise them to stay home and avoid contact?

As I said above, the media just love reporting road deaths, they are all over it. Suicide deaths are three times as many. Silence. Which is the bigger problem? Accidents due to fatigue and stupidity or people choosing to take their own life. I know my thoughts. Now apply that media bias philosophy to Covid coverage.

Pinky the pilot 3rd Feb 2021 08:24


Extract from the document you attached

"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
Well.....most interesting.:hmm:


Using death certificates is the more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid-19. This is because it counts every single death that has involved coronavirus in the UK. It is a more accurate indicator of what might have led to someone’s death, rather than a rule based simply on the number of days since a positive test. By contrast, the government’s method of only counting deaths with 28 days of a positive test is less comprehensive.
But Dr Dre; Does not your quote simply prove that the first abovementioned quote is true? Despite that there have may been other diseases that each victim may have been suffering from, that if they had subsequently contracted Covid 19, then that was their 'sole' cause of Death?

WingNut60 3rd Feb 2021 08:43


Originally Posted by Stick Flying (Post 10982292)
Please don't go "guessing" just to justify your argument. Its disingenuous to guess when you are debating. All the scientific modelling I've seen by puts the IFR towards 1%. That makes your guess 400% WRONG. Its guesses like that which end up on social media (you know, the place where everybody can be an scientist) and before you know it it becomes a Karen/Ken fact. Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.

Thanks for your advice about guessing. It is most assuredly correct.
However I was not referring to my argument,

I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.

WingNut60 3rd Feb 2021 08:46


Originally Posted by Stick Flying (Post 10982292)
...........Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.

Eh???? And modeling is so much more accurate?

dr dre 3rd Feb 2021 08:52


Originally Posted by Pinky the pilot (Post 10982323)
Despite that there have may been other diseases that each victim may have been suffering from, that if they had subsequently contracted Covid 19, then that was their 'sole' cause of Death?

No one has ever suggested a death certificate can only have one cause of death. Might want to re read that. Plus the WHO advice isn't necessarily taken up by every single member state. There'll be minor differences in reporting of mortality. I'm not going to go through 200 different reporting systems to decide what is most accurate. None of this really detracts from the fact Covid is far deadlier than a seasonal influenza.

COVID Far More Lethal Than Flu, Data Shows

dr dre 3rd Feb 2021 09:26

As further proof this isn't a "bad flu season" check out the video in this link:


McLimit 3rd Feb 2021 10:53


I think you’ve lost Icarus
Depends on what evidence you want to quote and choose to believe.


My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.
No, no way, can't be so? Someone on the frontline with a rationale view based on evidence?

FACT: There are financial incentives to hospitals in some countries for reported covid deaths.

Stick Flying 3rd Feb 2021 11:01


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 10982341)
Thanks for your advice about guessing. It is most assuredly correct.
However I was not referring to my argument,

I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.

Is that not an argument? You disagreed with Icarus but chose to use a 'guessed statistical percentage' in order to portray your side of the case?

And you need to question that scientific modelling is no more accurate than your over-inflated and quite misleading percentage? Is that what you are really thinking? If so, this is the big problem with social media and forums. We don't actually need anybody in the the science arena anymore. Sack all the experts and obtain our facts from self appointed forum experts.


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:00.


Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.