It's been shown that COVID-19 continues to exist on surfaces for many days (e.g., stainless steel over 14 days IIRC - see https://blog.csiro.au/covid19-virus-surfaces/) under normal climatic conditions, so pax will (re-)introduce COVID via their person and belongings regardless of their own infection and vax status. I do not want this to be the case, but it probably means that for international travel to be opened up, at least without quarrie at one or both ends, we will need a very high % vaxxed at origins, destinations and anywhere significant in between.

I think the sensible money is on anything being possible when it comes to COVID. Let’s be honest here, we have had this virus being closely studied for over a year now and it still is impossible to control or contain it despite measures not seen maybe ever before in most countries.

People who have been vaccinated are still getting the virus, I believe I even read some of which have died. Numerous mutations to the virus that are looking to be resistant to the vaccines. Border safety measures that seem to fail regularly...the list goes on.

I think the smart money is on aviation, travel and any form of normality being severely suppressed for a lot longer yet.

For some perspective:

Israeli data shows an infection rate in their vaccinated population less than 1/200th of their unvaccinated population. Only 16 people being treated in hospital had received both doses, an incredibly low figure:
Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections

As far as mutations go vaccines are providing protection against hospitalisation and death with the new mutations. They are NOT vaccine resistant.

Border safety measures can be improved in the short term yes, but lesser need for total elimination once the levels of immunisation in the country rise.

Low probability but multiplied by a large number of people equals near-certainty (say one per month). With the current national intolerance for any cases, there would need to be low occurrence at the origin and/or high vax rate at the destination. I am not advocating it should be like this, but I am expecting that surface-based transmission is not being discounted.

Remember also the NZ outbreak mid-winter -- unless they have revised their view of that since, the inbound vector was believed to be refrigerated freight. Also that there are gangs of people in our cities walking around spraying and polishing traffic signal buttons, road signs, seats etc etc. Yes that might be make-work but again also indicates where governments' thinking is at.

COVID is something we are going to have to live with, zero cases isn’t a realistic expectation. Once an adequate percentage of the population is vaccinated the world can start opening up again. Initially it will be between countries with high vaccination rates, some countries will still be off limits for the immediate future.

There will be small outbreaks but they will be controllable and citywide lockdowns won’t be necessary. Some people will get sick, some will get very sick and some will die but the numbers involved will be manageable.

We could almost eliminate road deaths by banning motorised vehicles or imposing a 20mph speed limit but we don’t because the economic effect would be too great, so we live with car accidents and road trauma. We manage the problem with rules and regulations which are enforced by the police, and a health system which treats the injured. Hospitals aren’t overwhelmed by road accident victims and soon, COVID will be the same.

Krismiler, all that is great in theory but unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, Australia's political 'leaders' have been and probably will be incredibly over-cautious as they have demonstrated to date. I'd be surprised if they suddenly change their outlook if there's even a modicum of a chance that there may be a case from any source. W.A. has one case that led to a 5 day lockdown. Whether that decision is correct or otherwise, that is the precedent that has been set. Politicians love precedents - especially if they can convince the public that it was a correct call.

The response is based on health advice for a virus spread amongst a non immunised population. Once the vaccine has been rolled out the advice will change. It's not too hard to comprehend:

Coronavirus: few vaccines prevent infection – here’s why that’s not a problem

Israel's vaccination rollout shows stunningly successful results

Some of the earliest figures from a mass vaccination programhas shown a huge drop in coronavirus cases.
Israel has had by far the most successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout, with 56 Pfizer doses administered for every 100 people in the country.
And already a sharp drop has been recorded in the number of people falling ill.

Of the 163,000 Israelis vaccinated by the Maccabi Healthcare Services, just 31 have contracted coronavirus.
"This is very, very good news," vaccine statistician Anat Ekka Zohar told the Times of Israel.
"It is the first study in the world that looks at such a large number of fully vaccinated patients."

The Israel data shows the Pfizer vaccine has an efficacy rate of 92 per cent.
But what is perhaps even more encouraging is how those vaccinated who contract coronavirus nevertheless respond.
"None have been hospitalised and they have very, very light symptoms," Dr Ekka Zohar said.
"We are talking about headache and a mild feeling of sickness, and they are almost completely without fever. It's really a very light illness."

edit* Channel 9 news

And that's the whole point of the vaccine, not to completely eradicate a virus, but to turn it into a common cold or flu. Once that happens travel and lockdown restrictions don't need to be enacted.

Just get the jab please.

The Israeli data is highly encouraging and importantly, is believable. Unlike certain countries they have no reason to cover up case numbers or exaggerate the effectiveness of a domestically produced vaccine.

Australia will definitely trail the rest of the world in opening up, but with news like this, a firm basis to plan on is now available. A schedule based on “as long as this doesn’t happen” can now be tentatively worked out for easing restrictions.

you mean like the statistical majority that contract Corona virus? Mild flu like symptoms?

Yes, but unlike the statistical 4% (in Oz) who die from it. Most definitely unlike statistical flu outcomes.

sorry where did I make comparisons to influenza fatality rates?

I have been trying to find an ACCURATE fatality rate for Australia. Where did you get 4%?

28,830 cases / 909 deaths.

OK ....3.1%
The 4% was a rough (mis)calculation.

Obviously, no allowance for asymptomatic cases.

Okay thanks. I found this page...https://www.worldometers.info/corona...try/australia/
So the REAL rate will be a great deal lower than 3.1% given that is simply the ratio of those who tested positive to those who died.
My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.

But that's just a guess. Because there are no statistics for asymptomatic cases. Only "impressions".
Whereas for inluenza the 5 year average for Australia is 0.34%. That is deaths per confirmed influenza diagnosis.
If you expand THAT out to include all of the influenza cases that were relatively mild and never reported to any health authority then I think you'd find the "apples with apples" death rate to weigh strongly in favour of influenza.

And, hey, has anyone got any figures for asymptomatic influenza? Or are we all just presuming that it's only Covid that has asymptomatic cases.
John Hopkins School of Public Health says "As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic".

They are good points you raise. Makes it difficult to plan. Hence one case in Perth has caused two million people to be locked down. Crazy.

One KNOWN case in Perth. But considering the bigger picture, the potential for many more is considerable.
If he's the only one then I think everyone will be amazed.

In the period from when he became infectious until he went into quarantine he visited a truly impressive list of public venues covering a broad expanse of the metropolitan area.