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Very interesting John.
QF have tenaciously fought integration for decades, but to listen to the PR hype you could be mistaken in thinking they were investing in the next generation of Qantas pilots. The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest. No mention of that in the slick little ad? |
Would be very interesting to see if iapa would publish a list of pilots by age, aircraft type, rank etc that could be used to project retirement rates over the next 10 years.
I would expect QF management to have this info already. It would shine the light of truth on this conversation instead of the incessant speculation. Then again this is pprune so possibly it would fuel the debate even more💕💤 |
I would expect QF management to have this info already. Why else bring in the Jetconnect implied threat (real or not)? And propose a subsidiary gets A320? QF have tenaciously fought integration for decades, but to listen to the PR hype you could be mistaken in thinking they were investing in the next generation of Qantas pilots. The reality of course is that the only way these graduates will see a career in mainline, is first to resign and then apply along with all the rest. No mention of that in the slick little ad? Of course it will be badged as something they thought of, with a catchy title, but their model for people management is done...Get a fork! |
Originally Posted by KRUSTY 34
(Post 9973779)
And....., if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall.
Lots of goals scored there. All “Own”. :D |
No point in getting too worked up about it. I think the emerging structural shortage is causing the HR/IR people to be worked up. It will take time but demographics is the surest bet there is! Airline HR/IR are on the wrong side of this one! :) |
Indamiddle
You raise a good point. Talking to a manager yesterday brought up an interesting point. There are a higher number of pilots retiring earlier than both AIPA or Qantas forecast. Approximately 1000 in a decade I was told. These numbers are in an AIPA email. 90-100 retirements per year at this stage with some years higher. Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are. A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry. A large factor is the increase in unforecast medical retirements particularly in Long Haul. Divisors Have been 185 for a long time on all fleets. Wasn't that long ago 170 was max for Only two BP. It then went to 175. QF didn't fly as far or for as long either. Brave new world with the 787 flying close to 19-20 hour TOD, all night, doing the equivalent of 195+ credit hours infinatum. Glad to see the scientific studies into passenger health are going ahead. Sure they will work backwards from the desired answer required and who gives a s$&@ about Crew health anyway. It's not a bonus metric is it? In the future, Flying direct London and New York will have pilots working harder with more fatigue, more jet lag, more night flying with more stress and more sickness. Regardless of intended retirements a greater number of pilots will have involuntary retirement forced upon them for medical reasons. Of course the highest number of divorce occurs and is increasing on the Long Haul fleets. Perhaps this is the Airline solution? Work the guys and gals so much harder for less money. When the marriages fall apart they will have to work to older age. Genius. Who says the CEO isn't worth $25,000,000 a year. |
I can back that up fearcampaign. Even the small group of LH drivers I know all of what you have said is accurate when applied to them. One has been forced to retire due to medical reasons (age 60) and the rest will be giving the minimum contractually agreed amount of notice and not a day more.
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the rest will be giving the minimum contractually agreed amount of notice and not a day more. Mr Joyce and Mr Clifford are the darlings of the right wing, showing those unions. Those unions are nobbled and the domestic roll out of Jetconnect doesn't even bother to stop for directions from the union, it is by-passed. A spent force. Qantas domestic pilots were grounded and locked out when not involved. Strangely Jetconnect and Jetstar were not. A whole wheelbarrow of weasel words and faux recognition may, according to people like Todd Samson, sway the masses to join the company direction. My strongly held view is that most people remember all too well that day in October 2011. Most employees understand all too well the results of speaking out publicly. An adversarial system is brimming with tools to tackle those who challenge. As I have stated, one CEO and board take the business down, make people redundant and drive thorough reductions. They then parachute out. A board then inserts a CEO to circuit break and business continues. In the criminal code, convicted of a dishonesty offence renders a person unable to be a trustworthy witness. Whilst their actions are carefully constructed to be lawful, I suspect that as long as that board and management are there trust can never really be restored. With accelerating retirement rates those pilots affected will politely refuse to be drawn into a conversation and comply with the minimum their contract obliges. That is something the Mr O Leary is grappling with. As troppo pointed out Mr Joyce is out of tricks. |
Ryanair has recognised unions. Hell must have frozen over Stefan Stern I don’t even know how there would be industrial action in Ryanair,” the company’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, observed at its annual general meeting in Dublin less than three months ago. “There isn’t a union.” There is now. In fact, not merely one union, but several pilots’ unions from all over Europe will shortly be recognised for the purpose of collective bargaining with the airline. This is not simply a U-turn by O’Leary: it is a full loop-the-loop aerial extravaganza, with multicoloured vapour trails and a brass band playing in celebratory support. Industrial action by Irish pilots, set for this Wednesday, was suspended on Sunday evening. The company should be sitting down with representatives from the union Impact tomorrow. Unions from the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal should all now get talks to avoid strike action in those countries as well. Along with the usual refreshments served at such meetings, there ought to be a decent slab of humble pie for Ryanair’s management to consume. The company has resisted this for years. Doomsday must surely be near, because O’Leary has previously talked about hell freezing over or cutting off his arms before sitting down to deal with unions in this way. Management is going to have to change its tune. Pilots do not have a “difficult job”, O’Leary has said. They are “precious about themselves” and “full of their own self-importance”. (He later apologised for the remarks, and said they were aimed at pilots working for rival airlines.) Now his pilots and their representatives will have the chance to ensure their pay and conditions improve, in order to avoid a repeat of the recent embarrassment over cancelled flights and missing crew. Planes are just “buses with wings”, O’Leary has also observed. And here we get to the point about Ryanair and what has made it such a success. The company has called our bluff. We might moan about the indignities of travelling with it. We might balk at the apparent disdain the chief executive has for his staff and customers. But we keep coming back for more – even after thousands of flights were cancelled owing to the airline’s staffing problems. Their prices are low. Ryanair does not pretend to offer comfort or pleasure. It will fly you from one airport to another more cheaply than most of its competitors will. On a recent edition of the Radio 4 comedy show I’m Sorry I Haven’t a Clue, John Finnemore said that Ryanair’s real advertising slogan ought to be: “You knew what you were getting into.” The gag produced a big laugh of recognition. There is some sort of consumer cognitive dissonance going on here. Which? has just reported that Ryanair is the joint worst airline, according to its members. To which the company responds that it is also one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing airlines. Both claims can seemingly be true at the same time. The airlines business is pretty weird. Customers can be dragged screaming from an overbooked plane, as happened earlier this year on a United flight, yet airlines continue to trade and investors continue to hold their shares. It’s business as usual. Matt Levine, a commentator at Bloomberg, has even suggested that, since most big investors hold shares in all the major stockmarket listed airlines, they are pretty relaxed about how they treat customers as long as between them they continue to dominate the market and deliver returns. Normal competition this is not. It is all a very long way from the earlier glamour of the jet set and the aspirational image of international travel. Ryanair cabin crew have been told to try harder to flog more perfume and trinkets in the sky. And while piloting a plane was once seen as a dream job, as many as half of Ryanair’s pilots are not employees of the company at all, but agency staff, sometimes required to enter into intricate contractual arrangements with the airline. This has led to the pilots’ tax affairs being investigated by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs. Now Ryanair’s approach has collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. You still need pilots to fly planes – which is, of course, a difficult and highly responsible job. And the 21st-century solution that the company has chosen to get it out of its difficulties? Trade unionism, employee representation and collective bargaining. It’s just like the old days. O’Leary has adopted the crash position, and workers around the world will have noticed. • Stefan Stern is director of the High Pay Centre and co-author of Myths of Management Ryanair has recognised unions. Hell must have frozen over |
Another interesting & detailed study by RAND focused on the US pilot situation: Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation. Many references & data sources included.
from the report, page 5 (note the tone, pilots are simply "products" to tptb) New commercial pilot production is down from 10042 in 1998 to 8140 in 2013. New CFI pilot production is down from 4647 in 1998 to 3723 in 2013. There are many reasons for this decrease in production, mostly connected to a decreased demand of airline pilots. This decreased demand lasted for a decade from 2002-2012. The four main causes of this stagnation in demand were the industry slowdown after the 9/11 attack, the major airline bankruptcies and consolidations, the 2008/2009 recession, and the lack of retirements after the 2007 mandatory age requirement relaxation from age 60 to age 65. The last factor many studies point to as a cause of future pilot shortages is forecasts of continuing expansion of the major airlines. The 2014 Boeing Current Market Outlook 2014– 2033 forecasts 7550 new airliners in the United States and a demand for 88000 new pilots in North America during the forecast period (Boeing 2014) |
Another good RAND study on pilot supply (Mike McGee's dissertation is a great one):
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1412.pdf |
Originally Posted by fearcampaign
(Post 9988109)
There are a higher number of pilots retiring earlier than both AIPA or Qantas forecast. Approximately 1000 in a decade I was told. These numbers are in an AIPA email. 90-100 retirements per year at this stage with some years higher.
Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are. A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry. |
Where there are smoke, there is fire.
The shortage is as real, but as undetectable as the lead up to CO poisoning. The change is gradual and insidious. We’ll all look back on this time and think one of two things, either “I wish I was more aware of my worth” or “I told you so”. The signs are there, we’re just not seeing them. I wouldn’t be saying yes to or signing anything until I was sure of the lay of the land. Floodgates will open next year and until then, the airlines will be pushing for the lowest deal they can get from pilots. Back yourselves, for goodness sake!! |
The USA military’s, planned northern hemisphere spring offensive against North Korea might change the landscape with regards to the “ shortage “ .
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The signs are there, we’re just not seeing them. I wouldn’t be saying yes to or signing anything until I was sure of the lay of the land. Floodgates will open next year and until then, the airlines will be pushing for the lowest deal they can get from pilots. Back yourselves, for goodness sake!! Whilst adversarial IR is still there ( at least in 4 weeks time-they get tired you know!), treating everything like a nail as a hammer is all they are, over supply has evaporated. The signs are there, they are everywhere. This shortage is far bigger than any business cycle, hence they will deploy any leverage they have. Having conversed with many pilots at Ryan air their fears are the same: They have an adversarial IR model, far worse than Australia, O'Leary openly denigrates them and you would not believe what happens to pilots and their tax affairs (rumoured) when they leave (not everyone though) Only a few months ago, O'Leary chastised his pilots, over paid and all the rest. You know the same rubbish Olivia Wirth spewed out. Funny how O'Leary backed down. He has no supply of pilots Is America's airline industry headed for a major pilot shortage? | Fox Business America Pilot Shortage Effect on Regional Flights, Ticket Prices | Fortune Pilot shortage: 600,000 new pilots needed over the next 20 years - are pilotless planes the answer? Management at major airlines have a problem; the paradigm has changed and for once, they are caught behind a demographic wave that will eventually, like Mr O'Leary cause them to back down, through gritted teeth I might hasten to add. |
Management are all over it, they will meet with the HR people and come up with a comprehensive five point plan to alleviate the forthcoming pilot shortage.
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Originally Posted by Stationair8
(Post 9994887)
Management are all over it, they will meet with the HR people and come up with a comprehensive five point plan to alleviate the forthcoming pilot shortage.
And they’ll have lots of meetings, complete with PowerPoint slides and lots of little sandwiches with the crusts cut off. That’s after the corporate Christmas parties of course. Better yet, I’m sure this can all wait to the New Year. |
A five point plan? Pfft. Everyone knows this problem has a silver bullet solution.
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Several airlines have accepted a pilot-less aircraft is a while off yet!
As such they are actively looking to value pilots as part of their strategic asset mix. They recognise if an airline has a primary function of flying passengers, then having pilots to do it is vital. On declining supply of pilots, an adversarial IR posture is often at odds with this imperative. There was an age where front line staff were an asset. A Qantas pilot, a Singapore girl. It is not confined to aviation, HR/IR kick own goals elsewhere too :E Many business leaders talk about treating human capital as a strategic asset, but few companies put the idea into practice. For many years, this was especially true in the oil and gas industry, where HR strategy — including recruiting, training, career development, and succession planning — was not seen as a top priority. More recently, however, the HR function in many energy companies has begun struggling to fill positions. The industry is suffering from a pronounced shortage of skilled, experienced technical professionals — especially those who can design, operate, and manage complex oil and gas exploration and production projects. |
Management are all over it, they will meet with the HR people and come up with a comprehensive five point plan to alleviate the forthcoming pilot shortage. A five point plan? Pfft. Everyone knows this problem has a silver bullet solution
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Pilotless Aircraft
Pilotless aircraft by 2025?...not a chance in hell. The technology might be ready by then for the airline industry.Then there's years of proving flights and finally convincing the public.
The first airline(s) that go this way will be the first to go out of business. How about you test this theory with family and friends. I have. I know a lot of people and not one said they would take the risk. They would rather go by rail by land or by old school ship across the oceans. In addition,the statement regarding less pilots will be needed. Yes maybe. As if the career choice isn't already comprimised and non appealing to the next generation? Even less will take it up. Another shortage perhaps in the remote control world? It's all relative. |
Meanwhile CASA sit back contemplating their navel :ugh:
Since when are distracted, fatigued, stressed, abused, deceived, outsourced and discarded pilots safe ones? And since when has a gladiator style inter-pilot competition been safe too? CASA......Hellooo! Aren't you responsible for safety? Or are you also hiding behind the strict liability of the Captain? |
Pilotless aircraft by 2025?...not a chance in hell. The technology might be ready by then for the airline industry.Then there's years of proving flights and finally convincing the public. Imagine you are a HR manager at a large airline responsible for recruiting 'talent' (try hard to imagine as uncomfortable as it would be :E)
Consulting IR you quickly decide that: In the past an 'implied threat' controlled the glorified bus drivers.
Quietly you also;
Consulting IR again, as you are a diligent 'practitioner' they tell you it is ok, time for some more Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. |
You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements. |
The big problem is this: How do you get a bunch of employees to put it all on the line when their options are 1) Grow a big ol' pair and stand their ground in the hope that things will improve, 2) Get it wrong and lose everything.
That's why I'm so critical of CASA for staying silent while all this is happening, dishonesty by omission is still dishonest. Your standard management will hide behind 'commercial in confidence', or 'oh that's just industrial troublemakers' etc. to put CASA off the scent. I think it's time for CASA to ask some very probing questions and demand some very frank answers from our great CEO's before the crisis really steps up a gear. Sadly I defy anyone from CASA to send our big airlines and their multiple subcontractors even a Christmas card let alone a please explain. |
That's why I'm so critical of CASA for staying silent while all this is happening, dishonesty by omission is still dishonest. From banking and finance, to retail, regulators are captured by the voluminous and overwhelming resources of the industry they are supposed to regulate. Governments progressively strip away resources as it suits the de-regulation apologists that constantly and loudly assert the industry is better 'self regulated'. For whom it is better when self regulated is strangely absent. Or are you also hiding behind the strict liability of the Captain? |
Originally Posted by Rated De
(Post 9995597)
Exactly, so removing that existential threat pilots will be needed for at least a few decades.
Imagine you are a HR manager at a large airline responsible for recruiting 'talent' (try hard to imagine as uncomfortable as it would be :E)
Consulting IR you quickly decide that: In the past an 'implied threat' controlled the glorified bus drivers.
Quietly you also;
Consulting IR again, as you are a diligent 'practitioner' they tell you it is ok, time for some more Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. Moving Jetconnect aeroplanes to VH register will actually create more flying for mainline 737 pilots though the potential of the Trojan Horse is acknowledged by all- including Management. Moving a couple of inefficiently utilised 737s off mining routes will result in increased flying for both mainline 737 and A330 pilots though the potential Trojan Horse is acknowledged by everyone-including Management. I suspect the QLink ‘cadetships’ for aviation students is a slightly developed thought bubble I suspect created at quite low levels within the airline. Anyone with significant industry experience can see the strengths and weaknesses of this initiative and knows how it will play out. It’s a tactical solution to what is a strategic issue and like most tactical solutions may win that battle for a short time but the war is still being lost. From my understanding Qantas has always written to the older pilots asking their intentions? So nothing new there? Anyway, there is no doubt the industry is changing and it’s a delicious irony that the IR strategy of the last couple of decades has been the genesis of the current shortage and issues facing recruitment and retention of crew. It’s that lack of foresight and self awareness that makes me so confident there is no long term strategy behind what is occurring now. If there was we’d see the major airlines targeting high school students and finding ways of engaging them into airline pilot careers. Until that time they’re just managing the crisis in front of them. |
How do you get a bunch of employees to put it all on the line when their options are 1) Grow a big ol' pair and stand their ground in the hope that things will improve, 2) Get it wrong and lose everything. |
Maybe with inspiring videos like this for future pilots the shortage won't happen?
Emirates praises pilots, as Ryanair battles them | Arab News Motivational stuff, The EK guys seem inspired! :hmm: |
Originally Posted by IsDon
Moving a couple of inefficiently utilised 737s off mining routes will result in increased flying for both mainline 737 and A330
Further, sources indicate only about 6.75 ~ 7 hours flying per 737 aircraft for (domestic) per day. So I question the inefficiency argument. I see the inefficiency as a deliberate function of the two brand strategy. If the 737 was utilised like the J* A32x's, likely in the 10~12 hour per day range (typpical LCC), there would be an excess of seats domestically. Reducing 737 flying offers a structural subsidy to enhance the profitability of Jetstar, and maximise the QF yield instead of flooding the market with seats. The two branded strategy isn't all upside, and capacity has to be carefully managed, the 737 is the swing lever. |
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I reckon there is a bit of fat in the 737 utilisation. Certainly the Jetconnect deal is about getting better utilisation as is the Network A320s. I suspect though the reason is more about utilising them transcontinental to release A330 capacity internationally than any IR ploy (as Isdon pointed out).
So maybe ‘inefficient’ isn’t quite the correct term and perhaps releasing increased efficiency would have been a better way to put it? Either way it appears an increase in utilisation of the fleet and that’s a good thing for mainline crew- and of course still keeping an eye on that damned horse! |
I reckon you’re given (sic) HR way, way too much credit. Everything I’ve observed over the last 5-6 years shows that they’re not that strategic. There is precedent all over the industry for this type of play. Whilst personally it may calm you to believe this is an accident, did JQ get bigger than Mr Dixon's promised 23 aircraft? Jetconnect quietly bubbled along for a decade and assumed the form it is now, do you really believe that was mere accident? In 2003 Jetconnect's principal activity was; Is the employment and on-hire of leasing of cabin crew to operate domestic commercial aircraft flights within New Zealand. to; 'Operation and management of aircraft in order to fulfill an operating schedule of trans Tasman commercial passenger flights' Qantas pilots ought quietly ask themselves, can the same management who grounded and locked you out, called you 'terminal' and made millions from 'transformation' now really truly be trusted not to again play the same game? |
Rated De,
You're pretty repetitive with your criticism of Qantas management, HR, IR and aviation unions. Those are your views and that's fine. So, you're good at criticising everyone involved, but what exactly is your solution to these problems for pilots? What is your plan? To do what legally? Practically? PR-wise? In EBA negotiations? PIA? Tell us.... you seem pretty long on bagging everyone and rather short on actual, detailed proposals and steps to take. Let's hear them :ok: |
The aviation industry is dead.
$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job. Everyone knows how bad the conditions are as pilots. In Europe, Ryan air has been in the papers every day for the last 2 month highlighting the horrible conditions for flight crews. 100,000 for a job with bad pay and employers that treat you badly. Eurowing has new contracts for A320 pilots- 2000€ per month. Who would want to become a pilot? The atc recruitment in Europe is struggling. They don't have enough applications to fill the courses. Everyday there are ads on facebook for flight crew and atc. This will take a decade to correct. |
$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job. It is not quite that bad yet. |
Originally Posted by mikk_13
(Post 9996007)
The aviation industry is dead.
$400,000 to get $50,000 a year job. Everyone knows how bad the conditions are as pilots. In Europe, Ryan air has been in the papers every day for the last 2 month highlighting the horrible conditions for flight crews. |
Tell us.... you seem pretty long on bagging everyone and rather short on actual, detailed proposals and steps to take. Let's hear them :ok: Perhaps it is simply a case that as Herb Kelleher said; “A company is stronger if it is bound by love rather than by fear.” |
There is no one in Qantas IR who was around in 2003. Not a soul. Heck, even Joyce himself wasn’t long in QF at that stage.
There is no way they set up QF NZ domestic as a back door way to introduce Jetconnect into the mainline domestic structure. They set it up hoping they could take on AirNZ. They discovered the brand didn’t work but the Jetstar brand might. When Qantas NZ started JQ wasn’t working in Aus let alone thinking about exporting it anywhere. When QF NZ didn’t work that’s when they decided to use it on the Tasman. Now that they want more utilisation out of the airframes they’ve decided to make this move. There are barely any managers that have beeen in QF in 2003 with the ability to influence those decisions. What has happened is that Management have responded to different situations with a ‘what now’ attitude. The decisions out of those questions have been poor for mainline crew but it’s bordering on delusional to suggest that the people who burned billions on Jetstar HK, JQ Japan, JQ Pacific, JQ Asia, Red Q, and so on are suddenly Machiavellian geniuses when it comes to mainline IR? You’re giving Joyce et al that much credit? Really? |
Sorry , have to disagree with you on this Keg.
The Machiavellian architect behind most of Qantas’ industrial shenanigans for the past couple of decades would have to be Ian Oldmeadow . He maybe on the so called outer now , but mark my words , I bet he still has IR’s ear in Qantas . |
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