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It is believed Tamworth offers all the necessary, required aids needed for training up to and including an ILS. |
Maybe QF should re-open the Longreach base !!
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Experts said fewer public service flights, falling profits and lower passenger demand could be seeing more cancellations for Canberra, while passengers in Sydney have been told staffing shortages and competing priorities on other routes were adding to the problem. Will Qantas pilots realise and capitalise on a shortage is structural in nature and made worse by delayed training? Leverage is everything! Ask Ryanair pilots |
Still listening to economists is problem number 1!
I would challenge the good Doctors' assertions if I were the Minister. |
just sayin
I think this question is redundant. There has never been a pilot shortage aside from a cyclic recruitment phase.......
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I think this question is redundant. There has never been a pilot shortage aside from a cyclic(sic) recruitment phase....... Is America's airline industry headed for a major pilot shortage? | Fox Business America Pilot Shortage Effect on Regional Flights, Ticket Prices | Fortune https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/air-...rning-out.html Air Force has a pilot shortage due to lack of training resources - Business Insider Air Force pilot shortage climbs to 2,000, inundated aviators carry 'a very heavy burden? | Fox News https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...s-new-reality/ As the US major airlines announced they retire by 2020 substantial numbers of senior pilots, pilots ought take a pay cut just to make sure? No doubt Australia is different as the national exceptionalism myth is still strong... Australia is no different nor exceptional := |
interesting articles.
Can you please write one that tells us what makes this pilot shortage different from all the other ones in the past where the world nearly collapsed then too. |
Can you please write one that tells us what makes this pilot shortage different from all the other ones in the past where the world nearly collapsed then too.
The projected growth over the next two decades,however, show that the growth of the 65+population will be more than twice as fast as the total population Your treasury has done the work for you. If you are inclined to do some research, feel free! https://demographics.treasury.gov.au...on.asp?NavID=6 |
I don't think you have been around in the aviation industry long enough to distinguish the smell of bullsh*t from Jet A1.
Mods please close this thread, nothing new here. |
Originally Posted by Rated De
(Post 9953548)
Perhaps you are right, with less than 300 Australians obtaining CPL per annum
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There are too many unhappy pilots in the Sandpit and Honkers to fill jets for a number of years to come in this country.
Rex will be fine as long as captains don’t start walking faster than they are hiring cadets. Issue for Rex is they are seeing now Saab Captains taking on 777 jobs in Dubai when requirements were dropped recently. Large pay and lifestyle change which will sway many. The issue at hand that I see now is nobody is learning to fly the ‘traditional way’. Flying clubs are going broke and are closing down all over the place. My local had sold two aircraft and made an instructor redundant in order to avoid bankruptcy. Having a look at the online booking system the whole week is bare expect a few weekend bookings. 10 years back I had to book in a month ahead to secure a 172 on a Sunday arvo. Any shortages now I would be blaming dysfunctional management and HR bodies making pilots run from the joint. Happening more often than none. |
PoppaJo has covered most of the bases.
A former colleague of mine is a captain with China Eastern, Melbourne based, commuting contract, gross salary approx 3 times what he was earning with VA! With the massive expansion projected for the Asia Pacific over the next 2 decades, I believe it is inevitable the big major players will have to offer something similar. The smaller local operators will have to completely change their mindset. Frankly, something I do not think they are capable of. The senior management of a well discussed regional airline has been predicting parity of captain numbers by Christmas, for the last 5 years! Last week that old chestnut of blind denial surfaced again. At the moment they have 11 Captains about to tender their resignations, and they’re just the ones we know about! “Happy trails Hans!” :ugh: |
Whilst i agree with PoppaJo there are many unhappy drivers overseas it seems there is still a reluctance to 'reintroduce' them back into oz by the major operators. I know of a few that got the nod from overseas but i know of many more good operators and good people who didn't even get close whilst others with very minimal experience did. I think that whilst over the past couple of decades the whole shortage thing has been largely B.S the baby boomer apocalypse might be coming within the next 5 years. There are many at QF alone who plan on going early and don't seem to have any intention of alerting the company to this fact.
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I know of a few that got the nod from overseas but i know of many more good operators and good people who didn't even get close whilst others with very minimal experience did. |
Originally Posted by Jeps
(Post 9956452)
There are many at QF alone who plan on going early and don't seem to have any intention of alerting the company to this fact.
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There is a shortage of intelligent young people that see a future in an industry where conditions are only going backwards.
At every EBA we are told we have to give something up to keep pace with inflation. The end result is that intelligent people that do their due diligence will choose another career path. Perhaps "giving up something" for EBA's is standard across all industries. Regardless, find me an Airline Pilot that would encourage their child to take up flying. Do Lawyers of 20 years experience go backwards? Doctors? Bankers? Can't really find anything that I pay for that is cheaper going forward. Now is the time for the choke hold yet nothing seems to be happening. Anyway 5 minutes of typing is probably too much on this topic. Who gives a .. |
Originally Posted by Berealgetreal
(Post 9957334)
There is a shortage of intelligent young people that see a future in an industry where conditions are only going backwards.
At every EBA we are told we have to give something up to keep pace with inflation. The end result is that intelligent people that do their due diligence will choose another career path. Perhaps "giving up something" for EBA's is standard across all industries. Regardless, find me an Airline Pilot that would encourage their child to take up flying. Do Lawyers of 20 years experience go backwards? Doctors? Bankers? Can't really find anything that I pay for that is cheaper going forward. Now is the time for the choke hold yet nothing seems to be happening. Anyway 5 minutes of typing is probably too much on this topic. Who gives a .. Secondly, yes they're too smart for this industry. Why would you invest so much for minimal return? 8 years of medicine costs less than a MECIR + ATPL subjects. Troubling really. However, from speaking to someone doing their speciality in pediatrics, the speciality takes longer and is more cost intensive. Further though, there are more scholarships and funding in public universities such as UNSW, Sydney, Melbourne, UQ etc for these professions. Where is the scholarship funding in ours? No scholarships would suggest to me that the industry has lost its prestigious position among the science faculty. Why? Due to the rise of penny pinching and the striping of conditions. |
Originally Posted by Arewegettingjets
(Post 9957362)
Most doctors and lawyers negotiate individual contracts, not EBAs.
Secondly, yes they're too smart for this industry. Why would you invest so much for minimal return? 8 years of medicine costs less than a MECIR + ATPL subjects. Troubling really. However, from speaking to someone doing their speciality in pediatrics, the speciality takes longer and is more cost intensive. Further though, there are more scholarships and funding in public universities such as UNSW, Sydney, Melbourne, UQ etc for these professions. Where is the scholarship funding in ours? No scholarships would suggest to me that the industry has lost its prestigious position among the science faculty. Why? Due to the rise of penny pinching and the striping of conditions. |
Originally Posted by PoppaJo
(Post 9954502)
There are too many unhappy pilots in the Sandpit and Honkers to fill jets for a number of years to come in this country.
Rex will be fine as long as captains don’t start walking faster than they are hiring cadets. Issue for Rex is they are seeing now Saab Captains taking on 777 jobs in Dubai when requirements were dropped recently. Large pay and lifestyle change which will sway many. The issue at hand that I see now is nobody is learning to fly the ‘traditional way’. Flying clubs are going broke and are closing down all over the place. My local had sold two aircraft and made an instructor redundant in order to avoid bankruptcy. Having a look at the online booking system the whole week is bare expect a few weekend bookings. 10 years back I had to book in a month ahead to secure a 172 on a Sunday arvo. Any shortages now I would be blaming dysfunctional management and HR bodies making pilots run from the joint. Happening more often than none. Over regulation and "user pays" has killed the industry. The CFI said that none was learning to fly privately anymore..it is just two expensive. |
Your(sic) also forgetting that in the medical industry that doctors control the supply of doctors. The shortage is structural. At every EBA we are told we have to give something up to keep pace with inflation. The end result is that intelligent people that do their due diligence will choose another career path. Yes in Australia, in the late 1980's Bill Kelty, Hawke and Keating effectively removed arbitrated outcomes holding them at nominal CPI, which is way behind REAL CPI. As such real wage decline occurred across many industries. As real purchasing power declines, the economy lags. The result for the policy maker is reduce the cost of debt all in order to keep the consumerism wheels turning. Now in Australia the real estate (Morrison) treasurer laments wages growth. It is wages growth (in real terms) that drives increased spending and growth. Companies the western world over cannot understand what Henry Ford summarised for them over 100 years ago and I paraphrase: 'If i fail to pay my workers enough to buy my cars then I do not have a viable business. Everything has a limit. Suppressing real wage growth in aviation is two fold:
Perhaps "giving up something" for EBA's is standard across all industries. Perhaps pilots in Europe, Asia, Australia and North America may want to critically ask what is left to give up and what if any push back is their representation making? |
Originally Posted by Arewegettingjets
(Post 9957362)
Most doctors and lawyers negotiate individual contracts, not EBAs.
Secondly, yes they're too smart for this industry. Why would you invest so much for minimal return? 8 years of medicine costs less than a MECIR + ATPL subjects. Troubling really. However, from speaking to someone doing their speciality in pediatrics, the speciality takes longer and is more cost intensive. Further though, there are more scholarships and funding in public universities such as UNSW, Sydney, Melbourne, UQ etc for these professions. Where is the scholarship funding in ours? No scholarships would suggest to me that the industry has lost its prestigious position among the science faculty. Why? Due to the rise of penny pinching and the striping of conditions. Do Doctors and Lawyers have annual checks of their performance? If you are young and love to fly then become a doctor or lawyer, have a holiday house and an aircraft in either Canada, NZ or USA and go over there on a regular basis (and probably claim it on tax) and enjoy your flying. |
Applying rational expectations to the pilot supply model has one interesting short coming: Pilots actually didn't know the model and therefore their assumptions were not correct.
What I am implying is that there is a great deal of leverage where supply of pilots exceeds demand. This has generational consequences as companies could push down terms and conditions. They did this for decades. Aided by an adversarial IR posture this was a foregone outcome with ample supply ensuring more candidates than needed. Moral hazard fell on the pilot. The company no longer bore responsibility for training or endorsements, contracts didn't compensate when a commercial cancellation occurred or sick leave provisions were less than an office worker. Pilots were paid only to fly, sitting around was at their expense. From General Aviation to Airlines this became the new model. When pilots adjusted to the reality of the model, it was oftentimes too late (age and financial commitment)... With real wage growth stagnant and other opportunities available, people do make rational choices: they find ways to be compensated for their time, they do not spend $150k learning to fly. The statistics although time lagged and opaque are bearing this reality: There is inadequate supply. The great weakness of the model that IR/HR created, aided by pilot representatives who knowing there was adequate supply continued to give things up to 'secure the flying' This loop has returned and choked off a lot of supply and with a demographic surge in retirements it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out. |
Passion for flying anyone??
Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion? Nothing else mattered apart from the smell of avgas and the indescribable high of peeling through a crisp winters morning just as the sun rises?
It worked for me..... 35 years later I tell anyone who asks they should go for it if they take a 1/2 hour trial introductory flight and their hearts remain in the clouds for the next 48hrs. If you don't have the passion, don't even start. |
CCB well said, if you have the passion you’ll never work a day in your life, ok maybe the red eye flights are working...
The journey through GA, military or whatever is just that a journey. Embrace it and enjoy. If your doing it for any other reason as you see on these threads then? |
However there is more to life than being an aero sexual. Even those who are that way inclined tend to slow down eventually. You cannot continually move house chasing the next flash aeroplane for peanuts, if you want anything resembling a home life.
I suspect that the younger generation are weighing up the pros and cons and given that money is now a con they are doing something else. Interestingly if you look at the research on millennials their life priorities compared to other generations is different. Just because your generation was happy doing this job over a long period of time doesn’t mean others will be. |
Interestingly if you look at the research on millennials their life priorities compared to other generations is different. Just because your generation was happy doing this job over a long period of time doesn’t mean others will be. Airline management with adversarial HR posture has driven down terms and conditions (it worked for a few decades on unlimited supply, it is not like it was 35 years ago), whilst costs for following a dream have risen. With a rise in demographically induced retirements beginning in all western economies HR/IR created a problem for themselves; people are not learning to fly. HR do not understand, airline management do not yet understand. I can assure you in the finance game there are hedge funds trying to work out how to position themselves when chunks of existing workforces the world over begin the march to retirement. The impacts on asset markets will be substantial, aviation is not any different and labour skill shortages among the considerations of the money men. Rational actors choose something else when the return is not on investment. They are choosing and the IR/HR model is ill equipped to accept the paradigm has shifted. |
Passion doesn't pay the mortgage - in fact it often leads to paying more than 1 mortgage.....
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Nothing's changed
When I started just after the Pilots Dispute we then got the "recession we had to have". Jobs were very difficult to get and there was absolutely no movement within regional airlines. I spent many years living in an Aboriginal Community during the 90's as a result. I eventually got lucky with a Regional and the thought of one day flying a Dash 8 in Command before retirement was what sustained me and all the contemporaries I associated with. (A regional mortgage quite achievable on that payscale).
Just at the moment I was able to take a slot on a regional jet the Company stipulated a requirement to sign an individual contract outside of the EBA. Much angst and turmoil ensued, I remained on my turboprop. (Sounds familiar - history keeps repeating). It didn't stop us though from dreaming big, taking holidays to do Maths/Physics, cramming together for our CX interviews to hopefully, maybe getting that one shot at the big time.... My point is that in order to enjoy the journey one needs first the passion. It's always been so and it will always be so. If you don't have it, you won't be able to withstand the **** conditions required to eventually get a gig on a regional turbo prop. That's all you can reasonably expect from the get go. Any further up the ladder is a bonus. Don't forget to enjoy the whole ride. I'm sure today's challenges are different - I don't think though that it's any better or worse. All this will fall on deaf ears however, you see we also had negative pilots back then too..... I used to hearten myself in the knowledge though that people with these attitudes made it easier for people like me with a positive outlook (and the others of like mind with whom I chose to associate) to shine and recognise when an opportunity arose. Good luck to all... |
Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion? |
Whatever happened to embarking on a flying career for the sole reason it is your passion? Nothing else mattered apart from the smell of avgas and the indescribable high of peeling through a crisp winters morning just as the sun rises? There is an argument in economic circles around labour importing at times of skill shortage to keep pressure on real wage rises. It is interesting though as globalised supply is a two way street for pilots perhaps this argument is of less relevance. I would contend that the lockout of staff, even those not involved with the action at Qantas was designed to draw concession from staff. It may have worked in the short term, but the model of relationship is broken. It is terminal at Ryanair too and have a read about Cathay. Real wage declines, degradation of terms and conditions, moral hazard (as risks are passed to pilots) where income is lost when flights are cancelled, to fly a company aircraft you pay for the endorsement and if unlucky enough to work for Ryanair you are a 'contractor' with responsibility for superannuation and even car parking. Over time people made rational decisions and assessed the long term viability of such a pursuit. For those already down the rabbit hole perhaps there was no other option. Qantas pilots talk of the lost career path as JQ grew but they stagnated. Imagine living in Sydney on Rex wages or Qlink wages as an FO? Unfortunately as Dixon and Joyce said, job security is a thing of the past, at least for employees not in their cult. Passion as stated won't actually pay the bills, so slowly people chose other things. Now demographic shortages are biting industry wide (slowly) accelerating the decline. In setting up an adversarial IR posture, emulating Ryanair, driving 'lower unit cost' the scene was set for the downward pressure they wanted on that unit cost of labour. Ironically the pursuit of which sowed the seeds of the shortage which is (in part) increasingly evident today. |
A few more observations from personal experience...
There is a much bigger aviation world out there than a SYD based regional position. I didn't finally buy my own home in a Capital City (Perth) until I was 45 years old. I'd be looking to break into the WA aviation game if I was looking to further my career. A 4 bedroom house can be rented for $370 pw only 5 mins to the airport The median house price has plummeted over the last few years. I agree that family should come 1st over persuing an aviation dream. That's why I didn't get married until I was 35. I also caution anyone who asks that unless you start your journey passionate, footloose and fancy free in your 20's, your chances of eventual success diminishes exponentially. It's just an observation of mine that to succeed all the way in this game sacrifices must be made in the beginning. Nothing's changed. From where I sit now in the L seat of a major Aus airline, everyone beside me has had similar tales of sacrifice to tell. |
Christmas Crisis: 15,000 American Air Flights Without Pilots Over Holidays Due To "Glitch" | Zero Hedge
Of course Australia is different! |
FedEx buys Cessnas, will develop pilot training program
Latest News Wednesday, 29 November 2017 FedEx Express is buying 50 new Cessna SkyCourier 408 turboprops to add to its feeder aircraft fleet - and has options for 50 more. The purchase - plus 30 ATR 75-600s announced recently - are part of the company's strategy to strategy to modernise its feeder fleet and develop a pilot training program, helping to offset the growing global pilot shortage. The Cessna SkyCourier 408 has more than twice the maximum payload of the Cessna 208Bs that currently are in FedEx’s fleet. Its large cargo doors mean it can handle up to three LD3 containers. Delivery of the Cessnas is expected to start mid-2020. |
Fascinating Rated De.
A computer program afflicted with the same delusion as its Human hosts. And....., if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall. Lots of goals scored there. All “Own”. :D |
if I’m reading this right, an attempt by management to negotiate less than the standard overtime rate in seeking help to clear the shortfall. Amusing to watch the adversarial IR model slowly fall apart, in between their steak lunches, weekends off and Christmas break...Their model only accepts negative inputs when calculating pilot labour unit cost :) |
Qantas Future Pilot Program offers uni aviation graduates jobs
Of course there will be plenty reminding me that Australia is different! First GA, then regionals! Still convinced of Australian exceptionalism? |
3/4 are (on first glance) females...that is not coincidental or accidental.
Nothing to do with a pilot shortage, just a female pilot shortage. King Alan has decreed it must be 20% next year. |
1st transgender pilot too I guess..
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Of course it must be a positive affirmative action program!
Qantaslink lack supply. |
Originally Posted by TBM-Legend
(Post 9987046)
1st transgender pilot too I guess..
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