PM3207, AJs comments were internal. Private dr dre? Not entirely. I wasn't the only one to hear his words.

Generally speaking I think it's an interesting statement as to where we're at that I don't instinctively trust what the CEO says. Too many times I've been told that everything was OK only to be later shafted.

Reflecting back on my earlier comments and subsequent discussions with others, there have been some contrary interpretations as to whether the future direction re the AOC and sell off of the FF will be announced with the results or soon after. The general thrust was that it will be soon. I took it to be Aug 28. Others felt it may not be then but very soon.

How much have Joyce and Clifford Lost?
 

Just done some calculations based on how much Clifford and Joyce have lost in all of their failed endeavours.

Previous posts have focused on profit and loss - which is fair enough especially as the loss for this year is widely expected to be +\- 1 billion dollars. That is one big number and one that is going focus the attention of the media and the broader community on the mess they have made.

But when you go back and look at the share price historically from the appointment date of Clifford and Joyce the situation is much much worse. And I'm talking not just few billion. Try 8.

We all know the general stats that when these fools were appointed the share price was much higher - at one stage hovering around $5.50 And that's the problem - most discussion of the last 5 years tends to dwell on the destruction they have wrought as being counted in single digit dollars in the share price.

It's only when you expand it all out that the true extent of the destruction of share holder value becomes obscenely obvious.

2,196,330,250 shares issued as of today.

Market cap today at $1.28
= $2,811,302,720

Joyce appointed Nov 28 2008
Market cap on that day at $2.23
= $4,897,816,457.5

Which means that Joyce has been responsible for a loss of share holder value that equates to $2,086,513,740. And that's before the 1 billion or so dip in profit is announced. The board must be very happy with him because they have paid him $22,000,000 to achieve that 2 billion dollar loss. Which is the only thing he has achieved during his 5 year (plus 1) plan.

But it gets worse.

Clifford was appointed 14 Nov 2007
Market cap on that day at $5.09
= $11,179,320,972.50 which
equates to a loss of share holder value of:
$8,368,018,25

I'm simply staggered and appalled to see these losses quantified in black and white.

There is much talk that Joyce will out soon. But as you see he is only a wee apprentice to the 8 Billion Dollar Chairman.

Let's hope there are enough long suffering private investors out there prepared to stand up at the AGM and ask the board in general, and the Chairman specifically - hey what about our 8 billion?.

Typo
 

This just in. SMH.

Deep cuts: Gareth Evans.

“For us, it’s about controlling what we can control, and pulling out $1 billion worth of costs [and] continuing to improve the network and the product quality for our customers is absolutely what we can control,” Mr Evans said at the CAPA Australia Pacific Aviation Summit."




Obviously this is a misprint. What he obviously said was

" ... continuing to dismantle and reduce the network and decrease the product quality for our customers is absolutely what we can control,”

He expects people will believe this crap. That they can rip 1 billon dollars from international and increase the network and improve quality for pax. CASA needs to get those fancy drug testing kits up to the campus in coward street. What has he been smokin? Or in all likelyhood Olivia drafted that little gem.

BTW hasn't she be quiet lately? What gives?

The media buid up for the 28th has started..
 

Is more on the money.. and yes Gareth believes we should all fall for this crap.. I can't see how LH can be cut back much more, it already is a shell compared to its former self..

The smh story is a rehash of the rehashed story from the AFR on Saturday.. same writer, Jamie Freed.. to her credit, she is getting in early and I sense she is a wake up to them..

and today in the smh
Bigbird, this shouldn't distract us from your wonderful post #4841 which speaks volumes! LC is the -8 billion dollar man! What you said in that post should be sent to everyone... it really says it all! Even the media should get their head around that information...

:D:D:D

Well no matter what happens next Thursday, the empire at the top and the board won't change. None of them lost their jobs, everyone below them did.
None if them take responsibility, they blame everyone else for their mistakes, no accountability. By the way, what has Hickey done since becoming head of INTL? Someone answer that

They say employee morale is low right now, I am sure it will only get worse.

Qantas Airways plans to cut the controllable cost base of its international business by $1 billion, or one third,
Controllable costs include things like changing international routes (such as cutting flights to New Zealand in non-peak periods) and fleet changes (such as retiring some of its fuel-guzzling 747s) but do not include fuel, depreciation or operating leases, Fairfax Media reports.

Chief financial officer Gareth Evans told the CAPA Australia Pacific Aviation Summit recently: "For us, it’s about controlling what we can control, and pulling out $1 billion worth of costs [and] continuing to improve the network and the product quality for our customers is absolutely what we can control."

Qantas has already said it is targeting about $2 billion in cost savings overall — now it can be reported about half of these savings will come from the airline's international business.

Analysts say more job cuts can be expected.

"They will probably announce they will cut another 2000 or 3000 [jobs] on top of the 5000 already announced," one told Fairfax.

Qantas is expected to report a pre-tax underlying loss of $750 million this financial year.

It's a tragedy that people have been going on in this forum and other threads for years as to what has/is/will go wrong with these people in charge.
Unfortunately nothing will change.
Remember these people don't give a flying about you, your career, or your family. The executive mantra is simple, they believe in one thing only...themselves and should anyone suggest their failings, they will be removed from qantas quick smart. Tow the line or get the boot.
This week I'm predicting the following lines to be reiterated ad nauseam.....
Qantas is facing tough trading conditions, weak australian dollar, strong australian dollar, volatility in the fuel price, higher fuel prices, tough decisions have to be made, cost cutting initiatives, turning the business around, legacy conditions,
lower cost competitors, less maintenance, safety is our number one priority, difficult decisions, jetstar promising to deliver, improving engagement, the unions ...blah blah blah. Please add as you deem fit.
And guess what......Nothing will change.

HnH, you got it.

You think we'd learn from previous experiences, each announcement is essentially the same. We wanted Dixon to go, now we want Joyce to go.

It won't matter, they'll do their job how they want to do it, not how we want/expect it to be done.

If you are really passionate about it, let them know personally. Phone, mail, email, visit. At least you tried, otherwise, try to save some angst & get on with life.

HnH

Might I add.

What a wonderful job the Executive Team have done despite extremely difficult trading conditions.

&

Despite Regulatory delays & obstacle/opposition to the Jetstar Asian franchise expansion.

MC.

We need a divine intervention.

No .. not Qantas Angels.

The Townsville refueller reports that grief counsellors have been retained for the ensuing period after 28/08.

It's sickening.

The only two people who should be feeling a sense of loss after 28 August are the CEO and chair.

When - oh, when - will the institutional shareholders WAKE UP!??

Could there be another industry where you could perform so badly and yet make so much money?

Love to know what the guys at Franklin Templeton are thinking right now.

It's insane unless it is a breakup deal.

Thanks Peter Harbison, the new spokesman for bad news?

There's a distinct shortage of companies that can say they have cost-cut their way to profitability, prosperity and financial sustainability. In fact, I can't think of any.

To cost cut by cutting investment in aircraft that have been designed to deeply cut the cost per ASK on the most strategic routes in the network, that's just outright dumb. That kind of cost cutting might positively impact the balance sheet temporarily but has a far deeper and enduring negative impact on the P & L into the future.

As ye sow, so shall ye reap. And hopefully the reaper is coming for Dumb & Dumber very soon.

As I posted months ago...Ask Pan Am about shrinking to profits, it went really well for them.

Agree VH-Cheerup.

But we have an airline run by accountants, not people who know how to run an airline.

Letting go of the 787 options will end up being one of the dumbest decisions, right up there with not ordering the 777

That looks a no-brainer, but I reckon even if they HAD 777's and 787's this bunch of clowns would STILL have screwed it up... I'm sure they would have found an empty airfield somewhere to park them! Have they made ONE decision in say 10 years that hasn't been an absolute unmitigated disaster?

The 787s will come but if they announce them now, they won't be able to get rid of all the engineers they want to get rid of. They'll announce them only when they don't have the critical mass of engineers or the time frame to maintain them. Then watch them start to get rid of A330s until they no longer have critical mass of those too.

Mr Harbison,
Expect Qantas to cut routes where the revenue is low or negative? Jetstar International has been negative for years including 2006 when they handed over 4 A330s that were earning 35% of the Qantas domestic profit to Jetstar who charges $80 to go to Bali. Brilliant!

Head Bangers.......
 

Over and over, otherwise intelligent aviation personnel, repeatedly proclaim their astonishment and disbelief that the powers that be, remain in power.
The company is being dismantled, the strippers are in the house, the announcement is for the public, then it will be taken off the table into private hands. To blame this crap on managerial incompetence, as opposed to a controlled demolition, is laughable.

Intrigued... Pray tell, what then?

Strippers in the house? Best decision QANTAS has made in years.

At a guess........
 

Intrigued... Pray tell, what then?

It may go something like this.


Flight MH17 Crash Could Hasten Ailing Malaysia Airlines Privatisation

I'm with AI... sort of...
 

In my view QF upper management (hereafter called 'they') have been paid big bucks for a long time, not to make QF profitable and pay dividends but rather to follow through on a plan, which they realised would be unpalatable to employees, to strip down cost structures & drive 'efficiencies' despite the enemies they would make; profits and dividends will return with the miraculous 'turn-around' built into the plan for the next year or two. :hmm:

I reckon the last few years could have been completely different if they had chosen a path of open & honest communication, defining the perceived problems transparently, allowing a few employee questions about the assertions being made, truthful comparisons with the competition, setting understandable goals re costs/fleet and directing attention to the resultant expansion which would be possible etc. ;)

Instead, they have shown themselves to be disingenuous, deceptive, misleading, scheming, obfuscating and obtuse toward (mostly) competent, honest, proud and loyal employees. They have brought about varying degrees of damage to 'the brand' both through their own actions, and also the actions they precipitated by employees who had no faith in such appalling 'leadership'. :mad:

It's water under the bridge now but, in a period of undoubted challenge when national policy has been but one part of an 'un-level playing field', I believe employee 'buy-in' and contribution to the solutions could have achieved so much more than the dysfunctional, aggressive, stress-inducing, engagement-sapping management posturing of the Dixon/Joyce era. :sad:

Time may clear the air, and perhaps history will be the judge....

Sorry, don't get it.

Suppose the airline DID find itself in "private hands". what then? How would the new owners bring about a return to profitability? Is it not so mortally wounded and now so short of money that would be an impossibility?

If you "feel" the terror, or believe the myth, its probably PR. There is a plan involving a big pile of money to be shared between a few.

The last CEO had a plan, and almost pulled it off, and in all likelihood current mob do to. However, they need everyone to believe its a dog first.

I see. My mistake is thinking D & D are morons. I hadn't considered they might simply be thieves.

To answer your question IMHO....
 

"Suppose the airline DID find itself in "private hands". what then? How would the new owners bring about a return to profitability?
Answer: Industrial relations behind closed doors, that would be the intent of achieving privacy in this scenario.....
Is it not so mortally wounded and now so short of money that would be an impossibility?"
Answer: No

Industrial relations behind closed doors?
 

Hey AI,

How does:

work under Australian legislation? How is it different?

Never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by malice. But never fully discount stupidity.
With apologies to Hanlon

I have always been, and remain, in the camp that believes our woes are the result of a puffed up drunkard chairman and a peewee narcisist CEO whose behaviour has most of the hallmarks of a psycopath.

Who cares? Seriously, what is the difference to us if it is being done out of idiocy or by design? The end result will be essentially the same.

Qantas is not the only big Australian company going through a similar destruction of value at the hands of an idealogue board and an executive of MBa grads with no industry experience.

It could just be that there are more board chairs than responsible, sober candidates. It seems also to be true that an MBa absent industry experience is no guarantee of rational decisions.

My latest opinion of the script is that Jetstar is going to be sold privately. Probably to American hedge funds with some Australian involvement. probably KKR with which the Qantas Chairman is involved I'm told.

After Jetstar is sold, Qantas collapses. Jetstar wil have taken all the "crown jewels" from Qantas. Jetstar will openly compete with Qantas domestically and drive it into bankruptcy. The Jetstar folk know exactly what routes are profitable in Qantas and what are not.

To put that another way, you will see the child kill the parent.

After that, the Qantas assets, including the brand, will be up for auction and the only buyer will be....Jetstar. Nobody else can bid because Jetstar controls the domestic market and can crush any emerging competitor.

Jetstar then rebrands itself as Qantas and ... job done. Qantas is now a completely privately held business and proceeds to rape Australian travellers yet again.

Man dives into bucket......
 

Hey AI,
How does:
Quote:
Answer: Industrial relations behind closed doors, that would be the intent of achieving privacy in this scenario.....
work under Australian legislation? How is it different?

Its really no different to what's happening now. Its just that nobody will hear the screams. The current industrial agreements remain in force until they are either renegotiated, dissolved by government intervention, or there isn't anybody left to work them. The aviation awards have not been updated for years and hold no resemblance to your current T and C's, though still enforceable. Should negotiations fail, the award safety net comes into place. The gap between industrial instruments is now so wide, the award affords about as much safety as the bucket......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvFTA_6NZbI

and that's the bluff.......

Australopithecus
Who cares? Seriously, what is the difference to us if it is being done out of idiocy or by design? The end result will be essentially the same.
Who cares comes down to whether or not a person is passionately connected or comes here for some sort of sick entertainment. Do I care? Absolutely.......

The flaw in this argument is that, in the meantime, VA would've become infinitely more stronger and the domestic franchise of QF would've lost massive value. It also pre-supposes that the privatised JQ would be the only interested party in a sale process that would be controlled by receivers rather than the board. What would happen if a Chinese airline or EK saw this as a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy into Australian domestic aviation on the cheap?

Even allowing for the above, the QANTAS brand would be irreparably damaged with millions of pi$$ed off FF members who have lost value etc. If you want to preserve any value in a brand name this is not how you do it.

Acute Instinct: my rhetorical question of "who cares" is not about passion. I'd wager that every poster on this thread is here out of the same passion for the airline, the job and a naive belief in some kind of elemental justice. (You know: the vibe of the thing). Whilst common to all of us though, each of us will feel the result differently, and through our own ****e-tinted glasses.

My point is that I am not sure that Any of us with skin in mainline will be able to tell the difference between one outcome and the other.

Yes, just to throw this into the mix. What would happen if EK bought Jetstar, moved it upmarket and rebranded it Emirates Australia? Or Emirates Oceania or something. Gives them domestic feed, and if they keep some SIN services, connections through their Singapore mini hub. I'm not suggesting this is likely, just throwing it open for discussion.

Just as an extra thought, the 777-200s that EK are about to phase out in Dubai, would make excellent transcontinental aircraft for the Australian Coast to Coast network. And they owe nothing. Configured in a two class cabin, with Emirates on board service standards and airport lounges, it would make a killer product.

Open a Sydney, Melbourne or Perth base for current EK crew who want to go home, the rest of the operation can be run from Network Control in Dubai, as it is now....chuck in Jetsars domestic fleet..wow, I am amazing my self at the out of the box thinking.

The only reason to privatise it would be to break it up and flog off all the assests.

Where is a private Qantas going to fly to and in what? Wrong aeroplanes, no route structure, but alot of cash. That's the only reason you would want to privatise.

For AI's theory to be true you would want the current management to set you up with the right routes and the right aircraft. They have done neither.

The 77Es are not an excellent product for trans-continental. They are too heavy, witness the number of Asian airlines who have ditched their 777s for A330s for regional operations. The A332s are the better option and EK have plenty of them too but like the 77Es, they need a major refurb.

Acute Instinct, you say:
I'm fairly certain that is incorrect.
If negotiations fail then the current EBA remains in place. Work Choices got repealed (thank god). So the (admittedly crap) Aviation Award would not play into the equation.

So again, how would taking the company private effect industrial relations?