Roll up, roll up, for Bain and Jayne’s pea and thimble trick
The time to command was always going to reduce because of the ~ten year gap between consecutive numbers (2008/2018) But it will blow out to 20+ years again. Also note that the QF shorthaul fleet is projected to shrink, so time to command will likely stretch way beyond the already unattractive two decades. In fact there may be some pilots who may never see a command, although it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. *
* Casey Stengel
* Casey Stengel
Atm it seems like a new joiner would have a faster command at QF than VA. Especially with 500+ pilots on the VA list who have the right to return if things miraculously improve and grow.
The only option VA have is to get the pay and lifestyle right and try and be like Southwest. Otherwise every other employer (including qf subsidiaries) will be a better option for career progression.
There is no way at present to predict what the long haul fleet looks like in ten years. QF could really operate twice the number of aircraft on long haul when you consider destinations and frequency. The capex however to buy 26 widebody aircraft is ~13 Billion AUD at list price. That’s just to replace the A330 fleet, no expansion.
Obviously things will change at QF. Post Joyce, the board may decide to actually run an airline and hence commit big to lease a larger fleet. Equally, they may decide to continue to define the airline as a niche premium carrier and have a small fleet with a single daily presence in many markets and leave frequency to the competition on each route.
Right now the math suggests that a new hire in 2023 will have a 30 year wait to command. Assuming 30 shorthaul aircraft and 50 longhaul. Assuming less than a 3% attrition rate per year. (Because you have to consider the average pilot group size over the past 30 years) Assuming 11 captains per plane longhaul/ 8 per pland shorthaul.
QF have alluded to the A220 being the future of domestic travel. That aircraft is not a mainline job. The (so far uncertified) A321XLR is mooted as the replacement aircraft, but they have so far only committed to 20 to replace 74 737 NG aircraft.
If the fleet withers to 50+30 you can see that the total captain pool is 740 + C&T pilots. If QF loses 60 pilots/year (which it doesn’t right now), the time to get from number 2500* to 740 is 29 years. You can play with the numbers to see which fleet size scenario yields a reasonable time to promotion.
Factor in the next generation aircraft will be arriving about then, and there is no certainty that they will be two pilot aircraft, nor that discretionary air travel will be by then considered to be an acceptable carbon footprint.
* I think QF has 2500 pilots on the list, but that is an approximate number
Obviously things will change at QF. Post Joyce, the board may decide to actually run an airline and hence commit big to lease a larger fleet. Equally, they may decide to continue to define the airline as a niche premium carrier and have a small fleet with a single daily presence in many markets and leave frequency to the competition on each route.
Right now the math suggests that a new hire in 2023 will have a 30 year wait to command. Assuming 30 shorthaul aircraft and 50 longhaul. Assuming less than a 3% attrition rate per year. (Because you have to consider the average pilot group size over the past 30 years) Assuming 11 captains per plane longhaul/ 8 per pland shorthaul.
QF have alluded to the A220 being the future of domestic travel. That aircraft is not a mainline job. The (so far uncertified) A321XLR is mooted as the replacement aircraft, but they have so far only committed to 20 to replace 74 737 NG aircraft.
If the fleet withers to 50+30 you can see that the total captain pool is 740 + C&T pilots. If QF loses 60 pilots/year (which it doesn’t right now), the time to get from number 2500* to 740 is 29 years. You can play with the numbers to see which fleet size scenario yields a reasonable time to promotion.
Factor in the next generation aircraft will be arriving about then, and there is no certainty that they will be two pilot aircraft, nor that discretionary air travel will be by then considered to be an acceptable carbon footprint.
* I think QF has 2500 pilots on the list, but that is an approximate number
Undoubtedly mainline crews will be offered a secondment to NJS however, and despite the usual whine of subsidiary airlines cannibalizing mainline opportunities, there will no shortage of individuals taking up a temporary command spots and thus contributing to the very issue they complain about.
As some people have suggested here, NJS will probably become the new SH at QF. I cannot see how QF hope to attract and maintain anyone when the current EBA is quickly becoming some of the worst narrow body T&C’s in the world. Australia is being left behind and QF will become a victim to its own corporate arrogance.
Airdropping QF pilots into NJS command slots will of course be just the morale booster that is lacking over there. But yes, it’s the likely scenario. In fact I expect that the current recruitment drive is a cynical exercise in ensuring those aircraft get crewed with pilots handcuffed by a QF seniority number.
Thread Starter
How many at NJS hold a Virgin return ticket?
Commands have already been offered to mainline FO’s and all of them rejected them. So next plan…
Well, that’s the rumour. But it might be a different story if given a choice between an involuntary redundancy or a leave of absence with a convenient NJS opportunity. Don’t forget that a pilot’s career aspirations and QF's interests are only ever coincidentally aligned.
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It's kultural...
Won’t be any CR at QF. Doesn’t gel well with the request to offshore NJS recruitment. One of the tests is that you have to prove money can’t get you locals. Stagnation while O/S labor sought! Yes. CR… No.
If VA want to succeed as a profitable business they should not fall again for the JB model of mimicking Qantas. The single type model with frequency works. Form good code shares and a good service level without any bells and whistles
The Southwest model would have worked brilliantly for VA from the start. However it seems that Australian airlines and business in general have absolutely no concept of how to ensure staff are treated and remunerated appropriately to ensure happy customers and clients. There seems to be a complete lack of interest in any business model that would actually promote happy workers = happy customers and rewarding your valued hard working employees for being good at their job. All they seem to think is more hours and cheaper workforce wins the business wars... and of course ridiculously paid board members. Then wonder why the workers take as much cash as they can and then jump ship as soon as possible for better conditions.
Just imagine how much money you could save if you workforce actually loved working for you, from basic things like tire/brake wear reductions, to actual active management of route, altitude and speed to save fuel. Also they would stick around and want to work, so less call outs, less delays and cancellations, nice meaningful PAs, happier customers, more repeat custom. Suddenly by having a happy workforce your operating costs drop by 10-20% and passenger repeat custom increase 10-20%. But apparently it's all too hard for the brains trust running the show. And BTW, for the brains trust that think they can force anybody to do these things, good luck, pilots hate being told what to do, so try to force efficiencies on a group usually goes the opposite way with people actively going out of their way to make it not work. I've seen it over and over, and will continue to repeat as long as the workforce is unhappy.
Just imagine how much money you could save if you workforce actually loved working for you, from basic things like tire/brake wear reductions, to actual active management of route, altitude and speed to save fuel. Also they would stick around and want to work, so less call outs, less delays and cancellations, nice meaningful PAs, happier customers, more repeat custom. Suddenly by having a happy workforce your operating costs drop by 10-20% and passenger repeat custom increase 10-20%. But apparently it's all too hard for the brains trust running the show. And BTW, for the brains trust that think they can force anybody to do these things, good luck, pilots hate being told what to do, so try to force efficiencies on a group usually goes the opposite way with people actively going out of their way to make it not work. I've seen it over and over, and will continue to repeat as long as the workforce is unhappy.
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The Southwest model would have worked brilliantly for VA from the start. However it seems that Australian airlines and business in general have absolutely no concept of how to ensure staff are treated and remunerated appropriately to ensure happy customers and clients. There seems to be a complete lack of interest in any business model that would actually promote happy workers = happy customers and rewarding your valued hard working employees for being good at their job. All they seem to think is more hours and cheaper workforce wins the business wars... and of course ridiculously paid board members. Then wonder why the workers take as much cash as they can and then jump ship as soon as possible for better conditions.
Just imagine how much money you could save if you workforce actually loved working for you, from basic things like tire/brake wear reductions, to actual active management of route, altitude and speed to save fuel. Also they would stick around and want to work, so less call outs, less delays and cancellations, nice meaningful PAs, happier customers, more repeat custom. Suddenly by having a happy workforce your operating costs drop by 10-20% and passenger repeat custom increase 10-20%. But apparently it's all too hard for the brains trust running the show. And BTW, for the brains trust that think they can force anybody to do these things, good luck, pilots hate being told what to do, so try to force efficiencies on a group usually goes the opposite way with people actively going out of their way to make it not work. I've seen it over and over, and will continue to repeat as long as the workforce is unhappy.
Just imagine how much money you could save if you workforce actually loved working for you, from basic things like tire/brake wear reductions, to actual active management of route, altitude and speed to save fuel. Also they would stick around and want to work, so less call outs, less delays and cancellations, nice meaningful PAs, happier customers, more repeat custom. Suddenly by having a happy workforce your operating costs drop by 10-20% and passenger repeat custom increase 10-20%. But apparently it's all too hard for the brains trust running the show. And BTW, for the brains trust that think they can force anybody to do these things, good luck, pilots hate being told what to do, so try to force efficiencies on a group usually goes the opposite way with people actively going out of their way to make it not work. I've seen it over and over, and will continue to repeat as long as the workforce is unhappy.