Bonza has its AOC
Mmm, I don't know about that. I'm seeing similar numbers to what Poppa is quoting.
Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Seven months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.
Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Seven months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.
Mmm, I don't know about that. I'm seeing similar numbers to what Poppa is quoting.
Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Seven months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.
Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Seven months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE.
Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.
Seven months ago was December- peak travel season. Loads seem to be following seasonal trends- they were very good during the school holidays (they'd want to be obviously). There is probably enough revenue from peak times to keep things going over the less popular times, but in the end, they WILL need to have the frequency, reputation and marketing to carry decent loads all year.
And yes, passenger numbers and load factors do bounce around by month/season. That said, you do not see half as many pax moving in the low period as you do in the high period. The swing between the quietest month, February, and the busiest month, generally October, tends to be around 20-25 percent.
The swing between July and November tends to run the other way; July is routinely a busier month than November. In fact, generally July is the second busiest month of the year.
And the monthly variations between load factors tends to be somewhat tighter than what you see for pax numbers, generally in the order of only a 10 percent variation (~ 8 percentage points) between worst and best.
Last edited by MickG0105; 26th Jul 2023 at 04:20. Reason: Added comment re difference between pax and LF variations
I know that it is confusing given that this is a Bonza thread, but the LFs we were kicking around are for Rex.
Bonza is adjusting capacity to demand, they have axed a whole pile of routes, they don’t appear to be flying around empty as such.
The issue for Rex, is they have placed all eggs in one basket, that’s capital city runs. I don’t know who the Rex corporate traveller is, I assume SME. However the Rex passenger appears to be Leisure VFR and very very small SME. That makes sense, as Rex is pretty full from Friday to Monday, as alluded to above, no denying that. But, they have issues during the week. They are playing middle of the market carrier with no loyalty program, that will leave you exposed mid week.
But to be flying 40/50 people around on a dozen flights mid week indicates some strategy problems at hand. Rex will need some fresh eyes to take it any further, they are most certainly stuck in 1981.
The issue for Rex, is they have placed all eggs in one basket, that’s capital city runs. I don’t know who the Rex corporate traveller is, I assume SME. However the Rex passenger appears to be Leisure VFR and very very small SME. That makes sense, as Rex is pretty full from Friday to Monday, as alluded to above, no denying that. But, they have issues during the week. They are playing middle of the market carrier with no loyalty program, that will leave you exposed mid week.
But to be flying 40/50 people around on a dozen flights mid week indicates some strategy problems at hand. Rex will need some fresh eyes to take it any further, they are most certainly stuck in 1981.
Good grief, so many self-appointed experts (like Poppa Jo) making inaccurate/uninformed statements about matters they can have no accurate knowledge of such as load factors and revenue and presenting these as if they are facts from an aviation oracle.
Citing all the Tigers and Compasses etc is pointless. EVERY major airline in Australia other than Qantas has gone bust. Virgin, Ansett etc. Similarly the self appointed experts were adamant that Jetstar was a temporary gimmick. It’s all been here on PPRUNE over the years.
Suffice to say, anyone can make basic statements about economic viability but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.
Citing all the Tigers and Compasses etc is pointless. EVERY major airline in Australia other than Qantas has gone bust. Virgin, Ansett etc. Similarly the self appointed experts were adamant that Jetstar was a temporary gimmick. It’s all been here on PPRUNE over the years.
Suffice to say, anyone can make basic statements about economic viability but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.
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You can’t blame people and shareholders especially for asking questions. The company for 5 months announced monthly profit numbers to the market. They went quiet for a few months. A month prior to the years end, they have told the market they are now loss making.
You don’t need a degree to understand basic fundamentals re operating a sustainable business. If you fly 40% full for half the week, you are burning cash. The thing is, according to the numbers, they are. I suggest if you have time to waste, jump on Expert Flyer and run some Rex numbers for this morning. It’s not great.
It further leads to the point, that for Rex to be taken any further, successfully, they need an executive overhaul.
You don’t need a degree to understand basic fundamentals re operating a sustainable business. If you fly 40% full for half the week, you are burning cash. The thing is, according to the numbers, they are. I suggest if you have time to waste, jump on Expert Flyer and run some Rex numbers for this morning. It’s not great.
It further leads to the point, that for Rex to be taken any further, successfully, they need an executive overhaul.
Good grief, so many self-appointed experts (like Poppa Jo) making inaccurate/uninformed statements about matters they can have no accurate knowledge of such as load factors and revenue and presenting these as if they are facts from an aviation oracle.
Citing all the Tigers and Compasses etc is pointless. EVERY major airline in Australia other than Qantas has gone bust. Virgin, Ansett etc. Similarly the self appointed experts were adamant that Jetstar was a temporary gimmick. It’s all been here on PPRUNE over the years.
Suffice to say, anyone can make basic statements about economic viability but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.
Citing all the Tigers and Compasses etc is pointless. EVERY major airline in Australia other than Qantas has gone bust. Virgin, Ansett etc. Similarly the self appointed experts were adamant that Jetstar was a temporary gimmick. It’s all been here on PPRUNE over the years.
Suffice to say, anyone can make basic statements about economic viability but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.
Not sure what Bonza are profiting, however they are generating revenue off what must be a fairly low cost base compared to VA and QF.
VA should have gone broke way back prior to 2010, they were propped up by continual injections from shareholders and promises of something better in the long run. The problem VA had for the long run was too many shareholders, which stymied direction and concise planning. Now all three of the none QF airline groups are backed by single entities, with who knows what plans they have for the long run. The only certainty is that there is not enough assets in any of them to warrant takeover and breakup, so the aim in the long run must be for something viable and sale-able but at what cost, and what timing, who knows.
PS, it's been said time and time again, Load factors mean nothing without knowing the yield. Rex has made most of its regional profit on around 60% LF for years. Which means some flights full others single digit loads. It's the yield on the full flights that really tells the story, and the other not so full, closer to empty are catchment on frequency to keep things turning over, maintain utilization.
BTW QF and VA are cancelling flights for yield management, so all is not rosy full flights on scheduled departures at either of the larger groups. It's just that they have the frequency to do such things.
Last edited by 43Inches; 27th Jul 2023 at 00:28.
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Never say never. Virgin Mark 3 could buy both them one day!
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Bonza comment:
Yep, rightio. Bet you a hundred they don't last another year unless, they morph into a more realistic route structure, someone buys them out, they admit they are a loss maker and are in it for the long haul (whatever that is?)
but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.
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Qatar is looking closely at REX as a cheap investment
A cash injection to grow their network is on the cards, but more so they want to throw some wide bodies their way to get around the cap as they want more flights to Oz
A cash injection to grow their network is on the cards, but more so they want to throw some wide bodies their way to get around the cap as they want more flights to Oz
I call BS! Those slots are not transferable to domestic jet not alone international. Otherwise Rex would have a lot more than their 6 jets into Sydney.
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Who is talking about slots, I am referring to the bilateral cap as Qatar is maxed out
They also were looking at VA but see more unrealized potential at ZL including a massive expansion of the pilot academy
Fleet
Helping ZL transition from SAABs to ATRs
More 737s
Academy
Training for ATRs / SAABs progressing to 737s to 777 / 787 both for ZL and Doha
International
Initially basing 5-6 x 777s in REX colours in Oz for ME
Potential ex Oz to Asia and US
They also were looking at VA but see more unrealized potential at ZL including a massive expansion of the pilot academy
Fleet
Helping ZL transition from SAABs to ATRs
More 737s
Academy
Training for ATRs / SAABs progressing to 737s to 777 / 787 both for ZL and Doha
International
Initially basing 5-6 x 777s in REX colours in Oz for ME
Potential ex Oz to Asia and US