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Old 16th Sep 2022, 13:47
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Why would anyone bother buying REX? Apart from some clapped out SAABs, what exactly are you buying?
A company that if you bought out the shares and sold the companies assets you would get your money back and possibly more.

However that's not the point, if you cant see the value of a huge regional network to an airline that has no regional network, then you are blind. Virgin tried to buy a Fifo operator to operate ATRs on RPT routes and failed miserably, maybe they learned that it would be better to sign up with the most profitable regional in the world rather than compete with it.

BTW the SAABs probably have a better dispatch rate than a brand new ATR at present, and miles better than QFs Dash-8 presently. Not bad for a clapped out aircraft.

On the hookup part, VA needs to buddy up with SQ again for the global connections. AirNZ is a waste of time and effort, SQ will reinvest in the company if it gets its act together as it needs the domestic hook ups for its own network, as long as they prove its worthwhile and get some synergies happening. The other problem with an AirNZ hookup is that will end up blocking real partners from getting involved, then you just end up with the same infighting with too many cooks.
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Old 16th Sep 2022, 14:12
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
On the hookup part, VA needs to buddy up with SQ again for the global connections. AirNZ is a waste of time and effort, SQ will reinvest in the company if it gets its act together as it needs the domestic hook ups for its own network, as long as they prove its worthwhile and get some synergies happening. The other problem with an AirNZ hookup is that will end up blocking real partners from getting involved, then you just end up with the same infighting with too many cooks.
VA and SQ are in a codeshare and FF partnership for westbound Global Connections.

As for SQ's investment record, they are not much better than Etihad. SQ's involvement in Ansett (through a 25% stake in NZ), Virgin Atlantic (huge losses and stake subsequently sold to Delta), Tiger Airways Holdings (Parent company of Tiger Airways Australia), NokScoot Thailand (bankrupt and subsequently liquidated) and Virgin Australia 1.0 have all ended in tears.

Not exactly the great investment record for what some consider the 'so called saviour' of airlines.
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Old 16th Sep 2022, 21:41
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And here is Rex’s response to the above:




Maybe there is something in this?
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Old 16th Sep 2022, 23:09
  #284 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Colonel_Klink View Post
And here is Rexís response to the above:




Maybe there is something in this?
Hmmmm... that is not a denial in any sense.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 00:34
  #285 (permalink)  
 
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Mick, what price would you put on Rex?
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 00:35
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That feels like it was written by a ppruner like Deano..
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 01:50
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Originally Posted by 1A_Please View Post
Hmmmm... that is not a denial in any sense.
Or a well worded response, stating nothing and keeping his share price inflated.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 02:41
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Hmmm, I have seen another document that says all this speculation is BS
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 03:27
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Originally Posted by TimmyTee View Post
That feels like it was written by a ppruner like Deano..
Not I...
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 03:32
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Did see this though

https://www.rex.com.au/MediaAndPress...st.aspx?y=2022

Rex said today it had signed new industrial agreements with two key sections of the airline’s workforce The new Enterprise Agreements (EAs) were overwhelmingly endorsed by both the airline’s Domestic Flight Attendants and Regional Express Aircraft Engineers. In separate ballots held over the last two weeks, 75% of flight attendants and 92% of engineers voted in favour of the new enterprise agreements. The enterprise agreements, which were finalised after 18 months of negotiations, will run for three and four years respectively and include pay rises for both groups. “The Board is delighted with the strong endorsement and support from the staff groups which is reflected in the way we are not experiencing the extreme chaos the other major carriers are facing,” Rex’s Executive Chairman, Lim Kim Hai, said. “We are at the final stages with other Enterprise Agreements and we are planning to put these out to a vote soon.”

Last edited by Deano969; 17th Sep 2022 at 03:57.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 06:46
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Originally Posted by Mr_App View Post
Mick, what price would you put on Rex?
The market is the final arbiter of value. Currently, it says Rex is worth $1.43 a share for a market cap of $149.8 million. And that's after factoring in Rex's 50 percent ownership of NJE.

Under usual circumstances you'd expect a bid of less than $200 million to get the deal done. The circumstances with Rex though are not usual; a fair whack of the shares are tightly held by the Gang of Five. KHL together with any two of the others hold a blocking stake which means an acquisition would need to be on their terms. So the question is really, what price do they put on Rex.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 08:53
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I would very much doubt that REX will be sold any time soon, especially in their transition stage
Likely they will see how things go with their jet ops
There is something to be said for selling "potential" that is a strong regional network and a promising mainline operation along with a newly acquired FIFO operation
Kim and co would likely only take the money and run for a highly overpriced bid at this point
Their minds would be looking at cashing in with a much larger entity to sell, perhaps north of 30 jets on mainline and an expanded FIFO operation IMO
And you have to ask who would buy them with QF/JQ on the attack and a track record of doing the same to new entrants, get past this hurdle and gain significant market share and strength, then you have something valuable to sell
Who would buy them ?
VA ? they would be more inclined to launch regional with Link or Pelican, would it be worth the coin to eliminate a competitor, just to have another one start up a year later ?
QF/JQ ? perhaps as they are yet to bludgeon REX into submission, however the ACCC may object to 90% of regional routes being held y the one entity
QQ ? can't see it
Can't really see any one else being interested
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 12:25
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VA and SQ are in a codeshare and FF partnership for westbound Global Connections.
This doesn't do much to control the product luring the passengers into their product. It's a start, but remember at one stage QF had a codeshare and connection with SQ and they got ditched and moved to a middle east partner. From SQs point of view they would want a stable partner in the Australian domestic scene that they can plan long term with.

As for SQ's investment record, they are not much better than Etihad. SQ's involvement in Ansett (through a 25% stake in NZ), Virgin Atlantic (huge losses and stake subsequently sold to Delta), Tiger Airways Holdings (Parent company of Tiger Airways Australia), NokScoot Thailand (bankrupt and subsequently liquidated) and Virgin Australia 1.0 have all ended in tears.
Having significant controlling shares is the issue. SQ wanted to buy out Ansett and was blocked by AirNZ as they wanted to control the company. SQ was not allowed any board positions in its stake holding so had not much to do with Ansetts woes, the NZ gov was blocking SQ investment in turn for share increases that could have changed Ansetts fortunes earlier. The hookup with VA was in similar circumstances where SQ had very little say in the running of the business and AirNZ and Etihad controlled enough shares to make sure the partners shared traffic flow, but by having three completely different airlines in bed does not work well to provide synergy with one partner, as well as Virgin Group having its say in proceedings.

Not exactly the great investment record for what some consider the 'so called saviour' of airlines.
Nothing to do with being a 'Saviour', it's about good business. SQ needs a good partner in Australia, has the money to capitalise, and a network to major international destinations. A lot of the shuffling in Australian aviation has giant egos making decisions that make only marginal business sense. AirNZ offers an Australian partner very little. Connections to the US via NZ, when everyone is going more direct, and poor Europe and Asian connections where the business is booming.

BTW how Qantas treated Air Pacific was a good indication of how Australian airline execs do business, they were using their four board positions to veto any possibility of independent competition with the Roo. Hence why the Fiji government kicked them off the board and Fiji Airways moved forward from then.

Last edited by 43Inches; 17th Sep 2022 at 12:52.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 12:42
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
This doesn't do much to control the product luring the passengers into their product. It's a start, but remember at one stage QF had a codeshare and connection with SQ and they got ditched and moved to a middle east partner. From SQs point of view they would want a stable partner in the Australian domestic scene that they can plan long term with.
Pretty sure that was BA (not SQ), which also had a 25% equity stake in QF at one point prior to QF hooking up with EK.

Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
Having significant controlling shares is the issue. SQ wanted to buy out Ansett and was blocked by AirNZ as they wanted to control the company. SQ was not allowed any board positions in its stake holding so had not much to do with Ansetts woes, the NZ gov was blocking SQ investment in turn for share increases that could have changed Ansetts fortunes earlier. The hookup with VA was in similar circumstances where SQ had very little say in the running of the business and AirNZ and Etihad controlled enough shares to make sure the partners shared traffic flow, but by having three completely different airlines in bed does not work well to provide synergy with one partner, as well as Virgin Group having its say in proceedings.
Fair points on NZ/AN and VA. The CEOs of the airlines with stake in VA also were known to have considerable egos - e.g the then-EY CEO was BFFs with Borghetti where both shared the same views. SQ just wanted the 'feed' for their own carrier. NZ's CEO at the time was clearly the third wheel in the VA 'relationship' where he ended selling out.

However, SQ did try to get into the Australian market (again) by wholly-owning Tiger Airways Australia (via Tiger Airways Holdings). It did not end well for them, plus they were operating in the LCC space rather than the full service space.

Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
Nothing to do with being a 'Saviour', it's about good business. SQ needs a good partner in Australia, has the money to capitalise, and a network to major international destinations. A lot of the shuffling in Australian aviation has giant egos making decisions that make only marginal business sense. AirNZ offers an Australian partner very little. Connections to the US via NZ, when everyone is going more direct, and poor Europe and Asian connections where the business is booming.
Pretty sure SQ were on record stating that India is their primary focus for international traffic and is the larger revenue market, hence keeping the Vistara India stake. Whilst Australia is up there, it's not SQ's top priority.

VA has UA (replacing DL) and AC for connections to North America. The partnership on the UA end is an extensive codeshare/FF deal that replaces the former DL Joint-Venture.
The Queensland Government also got inolved by throwing taxpayer subsidies to effectively 'charter' a UA 789 to start BNE-SFO, as originally UA wasn't going to start that service and were planning to send BNE pax via SYD or MEL.

If Air NZ is hoping for Australian connections via VA, they will be low yielding at best and would add very little to their 'back of the bus' traffic.
EY has effectively been replaced by QR as the second westbound partner.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 13:00
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Originally Posted by Colonel_Klink View Post
And here is Rexís response to the above:




Maybe there is something in this?
Nothing to see here, but itís up to Virgin to comment.

mmmm!?
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 13:01
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If Air NZ is hoping for Australian connections via VA, they will be low yielding at best and would add very little to their 'back of the bus' traffic.
EY has effectively been replaced by QR as the second westbound partner.
That's my whole point, Air NZ is a poor partner for VA, with marginal real traffic. The UA codeshare is serving Eastbound and SQ to Asia and Europe is a better option to get cosy with. Air NZ and QF seem to only get involved in local operators for ulterior motives, more to siphon funds, block competition or create an industrial relations wedge. If operators actually got together for mutual benefit then you might create a monster. The US operators have been smart so far to stay with codeshares and not get involved.

However, SQ did try to get into the Australian market (again) by wholly-owning Tiger Airways Australia (via Tiger Airways Holdings). It did not end well for them, plus they were operating in the LCC space rather than the full service space.
Tiger was always a device, not a go at a real airline. It was a go at taking the bottom from the QF group but it was too difficult to get under the skin of J* without the slots, so partnering up with VB/VA was the only way to give Tiger fighting chance. Have to remember QF was pushing into Asia with J* at the time, Tiger was a try at punching QF in the ribs to make sure they were not getting too much free capital to fund its expansion within Asia. Understanding that some of these budget carriers are not meant to make profit, but drain profit from others and block competitive entries. It also explains the small and far from lifesaving capital injections SQ made into VA to keep it running. Any competition eating into QFs revenue, even if its loss making is better than a QF with free reign on the Aussie domestic market.

Anyway, these should probably be added to the VA threads, not the Rex.

Last edited by 43Inches; 17th Sep 2022 at 13:15.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 13:24
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Originally Posted by Colonel_Klink View Post
And here is Rexís response to the above:




Maybe there is something in this?
Rex does not comment on market speculation or rumours.
​​​​​​... unless it suits us. Rex responds to news articles.
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 13:31
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In that case Rex was rumored to be weighing up the purchase, in this case the speculation is VA is considering a purchase. Simple way of saying speak to those thinking about buying, as they haven't spoken to us yet. "Hey John, we heard Bob wants to buy your car", "Oh, speak to Bob, he hasn't said anything to me yet".
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Old 17th Sep 2022, 13:40
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
In that case Rex was rumored to be weighing up the purchase, in this case the speculation is VA is considering a purchase. Simple way of saying speak to those thinking about buying, as they haven't spoken to us yet. "Hey John, we heard Bob wants to buy your car", "Oh, speak to Bob, he hasn't said anything to me yet".
A career in politics or used car sales beckons you.
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Old 18th Sep 2022, 01:05
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An alternative could be that Rexís forward projections arenít as rosy as some here might think, and that Rex has approached Virgin with a proposal.

Iím still staggered at the number of Rex 737ís I see idle at Melbourne not just on the weekends but during the week. For such a small fleet you would think utilization would need to be high at the fares they are charging. No wonder their OTP is so good!

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