Of Ukraine, Russia and QF9

[KRviator]

With the Russkies fart-arsing about in the Ukraine again, the UK CAA looks to have banned any Russian-affiliate aircraft from their skies, whether it is owned, registered or otherwise associated with, their Federation.

Which makes me wonder how long it may be until Russia retaliates against the west and closes their airspace to any nation that has done it to them?

Where does that leave the Leprechaun's flagship Darwin-London routing, given as things stand it spends about 40% of their time over Russian soil?

[morno]

I’m going to guess the speeding up of the PER-LHR route again.

[dr dre]

These days it looks as if going past Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran will be the “safe” route.....

[t_cas]

Originally Posted by KRviator

. With the Russkies fart-arsing about in the Ukraine again,

Understatement of the year so far….
It is a brutal reality that VP has jumped completely over the line. (Of sanity)

My thoughts are with the Ukraine citizens and the Russian citizens that are completely against this action.

Qantas will be fine.

[AQIS Boigu]

The Russians need the money from overflight charges.

No change expected

Flown over Afghanistan when the Yanks were still bombing

[FullOppositeRudder]

I’m going to guess the speeding up of the PER-LHR route again.

The problem here is the Western Australian policy on matters relating to the virus. They have a very restrictive hard border policy at present, and it's been very difficult for other Australians to get into WA - much less overseas people. Whilst I'm not sure, I think this is the reason why QF9 and QF1 are exiting and entering Australia via YPDN/Darwin at present.

https://www.wa.gov.au/government/cov...ational-travel

[C441]

Originally Posted by AQIS Boigu

Flown over Afghanistan when the Yanks were still bombing

Likewise Iraq, including the last northbound QF DXB-LHR flight over Iraq. As we were about to leave Iraqi airspace a huge ISIL instigated explosion near Mosul lit up the night sky; a reminder to us why Qantas was about to switch to operating over Iran rather than Iraq. Days before this overflights of Iran were out of the question due to sanctions.

[Max Tow]

BA no longer routing via Russian airspace & Russia reportedly just followed up by banning UK aircraft.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ys-2022-02-25/

[crewmeal]

So how will BA reroute flights to Tokoyo and Hong Kong? Surely not via Anchorage like the old days. Mind you I loved the time there back on 747-100's

UK aircraft banned from over flying Russia

[Capt Fathom]

No doubt it will be profit before safety for most operators. ☹️

[Max Tow]

Originally Posted by crewmeal

So how will BA reroute flights to Tokyo and Hong Kong? Surely not via Anchorage like the old days. Mind you I loved the time there back on 747-100's

I think you'll find that BA not currently flying those routes, however SIN (& SYD from end March) will have to route south.

I wonder how many DRW/LHR pax have the faintest idea of routing?

[morno]

Originally Posted by Max Tow

I think you'll find that BA not currently flying those routes, however SIN (& SYD from end March) will have to route south.

I wonder how many DRW/LHR pax have the faintest idea of routing?

Probably only once the moving map starts flying over funnily spelt place names in a very northern part of the world

[Derfred]

The Australian Prime Minister just criticised Vladimir Putin and announced heavy sanctions against Russia, and wealthy Russians connected to the Russian Government.

Qantas just announced that they would continue to fly QF9 over Russia.

What could possibly go wrong?

[Fairdealfrank]

So how will BA reroute flights to Tokoyo and Hong Kong? Surely not via Anchorage like the old days. Mind you I loved the time there back on 747-100's

Will be a looong flight without a stop at ANC, some aircraft may not have the range.

With the Russkies fart-arsing about in the Ukraine again, the UK CAA looks to have banned any Russian-affiliate aircraft from their skies, whether it is owned, registered or otherwise associated with, their Federation.

Which makes me wonder how long it may be until Russia retaliates against the west and closes their airspace to any nation that has done it to them?

Difficult to tell, Russian Federation makes a lot of money charging for overflight rights, on the other hand, it will make a fortune selling oil and gas to China....

Where does that leave the Leprechaun's flagship Darwin-London routing, given as things stand it spends about 40% of their time over Russian soil?

Probably be OK once Western Australia opens its domestic border, great circle route goes just south of Ukraine (Black Sea).

[blubak]

Originally Posted by Derfred

The Australian Prime Minister just criticised Vladimir Putin and announced heavy sanctions against Russia, and wealthy Russians connected to the Russian Government.

Qantas just announced that they would continue to fly QF9 over Russia.

What could possibly go wrong?

I think the plan to fly QF9 over russia will be just that,A PLAN.

[Ken Borough]

Originally Posted by blubak

I think the plan to fly QF9 over russia will be just that,A PLAN.

Well, not for the QF1 and QF9 currently in Russian airspace! But…for how much longer?

[Icarus2001]

Why avoid Russian airspace? Avoid the area around the Ukraine by all means, as per FAA Notams etc but the greater part of the Russian FIR is as “safe” as it has been.
Putin has no interest in picking a fight with any other nations by endangering their aircraft. The risk is around Ukraine only.

[C441]

Originally Posted by Icarus2001

Why avoid Russian airspace?……....

Sanctions and overflight fees revenue when many western countries are trying to minimise any source of finance to the Russian regime.

[KRviator]

IT isn't about the risk of being attacked I was thinking, that the economic cost, ie if EASA bans Russian overflights, etc, then, well, Russian airspace is a major thoroughfare for a lot of Asia-Europe type flights, even QF9 now out of Darwin spends a significant portion over Russian territory. Would Russia in turn close their airspace to everyone who has locked Aeroflot out, thus forcing QF and others into a long-winded route via the Middle East or SE Asia with additional fuel, landing fees etc?

As an example, right now over Russia there's:
AI186 from Vancouver to Delhi
AI174 San Fran - Delhi
ANA224 Frankfurt-Haneda
ANA212 London-Haneda
JAL44 London-Tokyo
KAL082 Chicago - Shanghai
KAL038 Chicago - Seoul
KAL094 Washington - Seoul
And another couple dozen more, not to mention QF9 or QF1 - who has just left Russian airspace.

One would imagine that everyone closing their airspace to Russian aircraft would have much less impact on world air travel than if Russia were to close their airspace to everyone else.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by KRviator

IT isn't about the risk of being attacked I was thinking, that the economic cost, ie if EASA bans Russian overflights, etc, then, well, Russian airspace is a major thoroughfare for a lot of Asia-Europe type flights, even QF9 now out of Darwin spends a significant portion over Russian territory. Would Russia in turn close their airspace to everyone who has locked Aeroflot out, thus forcing QF and others into a long-winded route via the Middle East or SE Asia with additional fuel, landing fees etc?

If that’s the case in 5 days they can operate unrestricted through Perth, the city they want to operate through and the one they’ll eventually be operating through in 3 months anyway, flying over the now safe area of the Middle East and Southern Europe to LHR and FCO, well away from the Ukraine and Russian airspace. The great circle track from Perth only comes close to some parts of the Black Sea, but they can just make a very minor diversion to the south to stay over Turkey, or stay well south and go over Saudi then Egypt and the eastern Mediterranean. Plenty of airlines flying these tracks on FR24 right now.