IT isn't about the risk of being attacked I was thinking, that the economic cost, ie if EASA bans Russian overflights, etc, then, well, Russian airspace is a major thoroughfare for a lot of Asia-Europe type flights, even QF9 now out of Darwin spends a significant portion over Russian territory. Would Russia in turn close their airspace to everyone who has locked Aeroflot out, thus forcing QF and others into a long-winded route via the Middle East or SE Asia with additional fuel, landing fees etc?
As an example, right now over Russia there's:
AI186 from Vancouver to Delhi
AI174 San Fran - Delhi
ANA224 Frankfurt-Haneda
ANA212 London-Haneda
JAL44 London-Tokyo
KAL082 Chicago - Shanghai
KAL038 Chicago - Seoul
KAL094 Washington - Seoul
And another couple dozen more, not to mention QF9 or QF1 - who has just left Russian airspace.
One would imagine that everyone closing their airspace to Russian aircraft would have much less impact on world air travel than if Russia were to close their airspace to everyone else.