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Of Ukraine, Russia and QF9

Old 26th Feb 2022, 10:03
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Why avoid Russian airspace? Avoid the area around the Ukraine by all means, as per FAA Notams etc but the greater part of the Russian FIR is as “safe” as it has been.
Putin has no interest in picking a fight with any other nations by endangering their aircraft. The risk is around Ukraine only.
What happens if there's an emergency over Russia and a 787 from a NATO-member country has to land in, say, Novosibirsk? Would you trust Putin with a couple of hundred stranded hostages?
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 21:10
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Originally Posted by overthewing View Post
What happens if there's an emergency over Russia and a 787 from a NATO-member country has to land in, say, Novosibirsk? Would you trust Putin with a couple of hundred stranded hostages?
Quite so - I certainly wouldn't be happy with a such a long routing with non-Russian diversion points. This of course in addition to any moral considerations of adding overflight revenue to the Russian economy.

Almost all EU countries have announced overflight bans today with turn back of LH & KL flights planned to cross Russian airspace.

Last edited by Max Tow; 27th Feb 2022 at 02:12. Reason: Update re more countries avoiding Russian airspace
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 21:32
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What happens if there's an emergency over Russia and a 787 from a NATO-member country has to land in, say, Novosibirsk? Would you trust Putin with a couple of hundred stranded hostages
Yes of course, why would you not. You need to look at his moves in Ukraine a little more closely.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 00:01
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I recon it will be a non-event from the political side of things if an Indian plane needs to divert Pakistan or a western plane into Tehran with a fire.

ICAO rules are very clear.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 00:08
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Originally Posted by AQIS Boigu View Post

ICAO rules are very clear.
Sure they are, but remind me why no-one's been flying over Belarus for the last year? ICAO rules didn't stop the Ryanair flight being forced to land & pax abducted in Minsk..
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 04:50
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Just published in The Australian:
Qantas will stop sending its London flights through Russian airspace following similar moves by other carriers amid the worsening conflict in Ukraine.

As recently as Saturday, Qantas confirmed it was maintaining a flight path over northern Russia, more than 800km from the border with Ukraine.

Airlines that operate through the airspace of foreign countries pay a fee to do so and Qantas confirmed it was paying Russia to operate in its airspace.
Qantas’s Darwin-London flights will now fly through the Middle East and southern Europe to the south of Ukraine instead, adding about an hour to the flight time.

“Given the current circumstances and complexities, we’re opting to use one of our alternative flight paths that doesn’t overfly Russia while we continue to monitor this evolving situation,” a Qantas spokesman said.

“We regularly review our flight paths and make any *adjustments we consider prudent.”

The first flight to operate on the alternative route is flight QF2 from London to Darwin, which is due to takeoff on Sunday just before 9pm AEDT.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 06:39
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Putin has no interest in picking a fight with any other nations by endangering their aircraft. The risk is around Ukraine only.
Like MH17?
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 07:11
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“We regularly review our flight paths and make any *adjustments we consider prudent.”
Obviously not regularly enough.

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Old 27th Feb 2022, 07:40
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Like MH17?
Which was a mistake by Russian backed Ukraine separatists, not an executive order from Putin.

Mistakes...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrain...nes_Flight_752
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 08:08
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Yeah, of course, Putin had nothing to do with it, just a mistake.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 08:47
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Originally Posted by tossbag View Post
Yeah, of course, Putin had nothing to do with it, just a mistake.
Putin didn't order the deliberate targeting of a Malaysian aircraft flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur for a specific reason. It was reckless use of force in a civilian heavy area. I believe the West calls it "Collateral damage".

As the routing of the flights were well to the north of Moscow I doubt whether there was any risk to the aircraft. But they couldn't be seen paying overflight fees to Putin, and there is an alternative route that will cost them but is doable.

Interestingly at this very moment United Airlines ORD-DEL is over Russia, no real way to avoid it to make direct US to India flights. As well as Finnair, Korean, Japan and Air France and others that are all speaking against Russia in this conflict. It looks as if the PR benefit to not paying Russian overflight fees is weighed against the ability to route your aircraft around it's airspace and still be able to perform direct flights.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 08:49
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Putin is not stupid. What possible motivation is there for him to shoot down a civilian airliner? What does he gain?


The PR benefit? Does that mean the EU will stop buying the Russian gas? No I did not think so. which means...virtue signaling. The new scourge of the western world.
It is partly what got us here, instead of spending time worrying about which comedian is telling unacceptable jokes and what pro noun to use, we should have been anticipating this.
Putin put 30,000 troops on the border nearly a year ago.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 09:27
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Putin is not stupid. What possible motivation is there for him to shoot down a civilian airliner? What does he gain?
Oh, he's definitely not stupid, far from it. But the west is weak, and getting weaker by the day. Whether he 'ordered' the firing of that missile or not, they fired it under his regime. He's not been held to account and won't be. It's doubtful he'll be held to account over this atrocity while the weak west keeps their fingers crossed for sunny and windy days to keep their Teslas charged and fight over legislation to ensure a male born can cane a women in the swimming pool. But Putin it was that brought MH17 down, argue the technicalities but he's PIC.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 09:41
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I am picking up what you are putting down but I think F up not an actual strategic decision.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 10:17
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Putin is not stupid. What possible motivation is there for him to shoot down a civilian airliner? What does he gain?


The PR benefit? Does that mean the EU will stop buying the Russian gas? No I did not think so. which means...virtue signaling. The new scourge of the western world.
It is partly what got us here, instead of spending time worrying about which comedian is telling unacceptable jokes and what pro noun to use, we should have been anticipating this.
Putin put 30,000 troops on the border nearly a year ago.
.

Very well said. Too many people running around worrying about which person to cancel next.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 12:14
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While you all discuss whether or not it is risky for Qantas to fly its aircraft through Russian airspace at this point in time, Qantas have now conducted a security analysis and decided it is not prudent.

My point was that it took them 4 days to make this decision, and even made a recent announcement that they were continuing to fly in the airspace - which they have just backflipped on.

Qantas historically has been very conservative in avoiding conflict zones (WWII excluded). For example, when MH17 was shot down, from memory, QF had already ceased flight planning through that airspace.

So this recent decision to continue flying in Russian airspace was interesting to me. Especially considering the alternate flight path south of Ukraine appears to be not too many more track miles, and indeed less track miles than the original PER-LHR route. So the original decision to continue flying over Russia was based on a drop-in-the-ocean fuel impost.

The Townsville refueller was predicting back in December that Putin was going to go all-out on Ukraine. This was hardly unexpected. And no, Putin wouldn’t waste an S-500 on a QF B787, but if there happened to be a high ranking Australian official on board when they had to make an emergency landing? Well, we all know what happened in Belarus. Some situations are best avoided.



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Old 27th Feb 2022, 13:16
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Originally Posted by SOPS View Post
.

Very well said. Too many people running around worrying about which person to cancel next.
You guys sound like those old people in the 60s/70s saying we shouldn’t listen to rock and roll because of the devil.

How exactly would all the people who are busy running around ‘cancelling’ take a break and prevent Russia invading Ukraine?
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 14:31
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Originally Posted by Hamley View Post
You guys sound like those old people in the 60s/70s saying we shouldn’t listen to rock and roll because of the devil.

How exactly would all the people who are busy running around ‘cancelling’ take a break and prevent Russia invading Ukraine?
Well said. We could of had a nice thread going about airspace limitations and the benefits and limitations of flying particular routes, yet the usual types came in and for absolutely no reason brought up cancel culture, transgendered people, comedians, climate change and whatever issue they are told to have a sook about by their chosen shock jock that has no relevance to their life or this thread.

I’m a bit over the politicisation of every thread here, we saw it on the Covid threads so let’s not bring it in everywhere. There’s a forum called Jet Blast where you can argue about this stuff to your hearts content.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 18:50
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Effective immediately, flight path now changed. LHR flights will now over fly the Middle East and Southern Europe adding around 1 hour to the total flight time.
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Old 27th Feb 2022, 18:51
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Putin is not stupid. What possible motivation is there for him to shoot down a civilian airliner? What does he gain?
No he is not stupid. He is, however, IMHO a megalomaniac who does anything that he thinks is right and killing foreigners is one of those things.

One of the NZ papers had a report yesterday that he has lost the support of the Russian Parliament, but that won't stop him.
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