Is the Cadet Pilot extinct down under?

[neville_nobody]

I understand the reasons and have a lot of sympathy but you do need to keep bringing in younger people - even at low rates - otherwise in 20-40 years you're faced with disaster with all sorts of unfillable gaps.

Noone in managememt thinks in those timeframes. They barely see more than 2 years into the future let alone 20+ It will just drift along until suddenly there is yet another crisis.

[Dashtrash]

If I can broaden the horizons for a moment. Airlines around the world that have fired significant numbers(EK) or all(KA) their pilots could be placing themselves at a disadvantage. QF has stood down so in theory, would be quicker to start up operations. Should there be a workable vaccince, borders re-open etc (fingers crossed/wishful thinking) could some airlines find themselves suddenly under-crewed? Airlines that rely on expats could struggle to employ or re-employ pilots that have been forced to move back to their home country. Many of those in a year or so, may look at the numbers and decide that they can retire, others have secured jobs elsewhere and others may step away from aviation altogether.
Could there be a rush on experienced crews in the next 12-24 months? The need to employ en-mass in all seats leading to a new outlook on seniority? Have some airlines painted themselves into a corner by their efforts to stay in business?
What do you think? Could it happen? Sensible discussion?

How this impacts the lowest levels is anyones guess. I certainly wouldn't advocate committing to a massive financial burdon at this point. Beware of taking advice from turkeys at Christmas time. Get another qualification, get some cash behind you and even if my possible scenarios came true, the industry would still take a few years to normalise for the cadet level entry.
Apologies if I'm waffling but it's late here.

[dontgive2FACs]

I tend to think that the big-hub carriers (Gulf + Singapore and Hong Kong) might have their business model changed by the way in which people chose to travel for the next 5 years.

Possibly many of the expats who have retired home after losing their jobs, might be shy of venturing abroad again.

Could see a large surplus of experienced pilots in Australia and NZ.

One reason cadet programmes are dead for a significant time to come.

I definitely feel for those that had already started on the journey. Terrible luck.

[KRUSTY 34]

Originally Posted by goodonyamate

At the end of the day the cadet programs are here to stay. It’s all well and good to say that there are sudokus pilots in oz, expats home etc, but if the airlines want cadets, that’s what they’ll get. Remember recruitment is driven by some 20 something HR moron. If the flavour of the day is recruiting compliant pilots that they can mold into shape from day 1, then that’s what they’ll do. Being an expat, a redundant pilot or anything else is a guarantee of precisely zero.

Good in theory.

I know of one group of cadets, who on graduation joined the union as their first act as employees. The molded, compliant (as in gladly taking the pineapple) former cadet is simply a Management/HR wet dream.

[Ladloy]

Originally Posted by KRUSTY 34

Good in theory.

I know of one group of cadets, who on graduation joined the union as their first act as employees. The molded, compliant (as in gladly taking the pineapple) former cadet is simply a Management/HR wet dream.

Can confirm this is true for almost every cadet course. ​​​​​​​

[wheels_down]

Originally Posted by neville_nobody

Noone in managememt thinks in those timeframes. They barely see more than 2 years into the future let alone 20+ It will just drift along until suddenly there is yet another crisis.

The generation changeover will arrive around 2040 and no executive or Chief pilot will be in the same job so nobody cares.

Those in the 20s now starting out will probably have pretty good careers in the back half of it.

[FightDeck]

COVID has exposed why an Airline Pilot is a terrible career option. Have to say it has the worst prospects now and into the future. Too niche and not a portable job either. Regardless of experience or seniority you can be stood down in an instant Unpaid, and in some cases like Virgin be made redundant not in seniority order.Pilots can also lose their licence medically at any stage.
Anyone crazy enough to want to do this job now with rapidly deteriorating pay, conditions and work/life balance needs to make certain they have another qualification and income stream available. .
My Advice would be do something else with better prospects, portability, better outcomes for family and health, and fly privately for fun if you like it that much.

[knobbycobby]

Agree.
COVID is a nail in the coffin for aspiring pilots and the job. If you were young enough you’d be mad not to get out and get a decent career with stability somewhere else.
Do something else. Pilots can be redundant or furloughed at the drop of the hat with no where to go.
In any other job or industry you can simply move to many other companies or roles. It’s Not an option in aviation.
Cadet programs and training in general will die off for a long time. Just is common sense unfortunately.