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Is the Cadet Pilot extinct down under?

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Is the Cadet Pilot extinct down under?

Old 8th Oct 2020, 06:56
  #61 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post
Why would people train for an industry that currently doesn't exist & is going to have to resized , restructured in a massive way
  • Virgin laid off 1000 pilots , they get priority for re-employment until 2028, 40% paycut for those who remain
  • QF Group likely have around 4500 pilots , they only need 10% of those atm & priority for next decade will be shuffling the excess around the group ,
  • At least 2000 Australian pilots returning from jobs overseas & in many cases their jobs OS are permanently gone
  • There are 4000 plus pilots in Australia who are currently "stood down" & facing possible redundancy
  • 100s made redundant from Air NZ , Aussie airlines have always liked Kiwi pilots
  • Every year 150 or so ADF pilots are eligible to leave , you will have to compete against them
  • Shut down or cadetships by almost all the worlds Airlines (aside from China, as locals replacing expat)
  • Flying schools in Australia face very uncertain future, so way way less instructor jobs
Have a look at the thread on SEA (Singapore flying schools) it is more sensible - this forum is all rose coloured glasses dogma

Don't get sucked in the "best time to train" nonsense, there are thousands of unemployed pilots in Australia now & unfortunately
that will remain the case for years. Difficult to think of a more useless qualification than a CPL/IR right now

The QF/Aviation Uni partnership was much over hyped, how many did actually get hired direct from Aviation Uni during the 4 year
pre-covid boom ? - relatively token number. Relatively recently CQU were "talking up" their new partnership with Qlink - for goodness sake
Qlink is largely grounded - quite incredible to be doing press releases at this time.

You expect private institutions to be full of misleading BS with their marketing, surprising how low the Uni's will stoop to make a buck

Think quite unethical for Aviation Unis to be "talking up their book" when the industry has collapsed & it is obvious
that it will emerge much smaller , years down the track. They have one motivation & one motivation only - achieving full enrolments & maximising
funding from Govt

10 months into Corona & the scorecard for Aussie airlines is domestic 5% ; international 0%.

I knew this was bad but I wasn't expecting or guess at this level of disaster

Not the time to be looking at cadetships , set up your plan B qualification/skill & look at it in a couple of years

This is not 1988 or 2008, the world aviation industry is grounded, there are 1000s of unemployed pilots in Australia now & the world is in
for a monster recession unfortunately
Pretty much covered all the bases there Telfer’
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 07:18
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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The one exception might be Cobham or Rex cadetship as strong articulation to employment outcome (in past at least)

Trades Vs Degree is never ending debate, one thing people can forget is that at end of trade you have "experience" whereas
Degree you have just done the academics

You would hope the large flying schools are able to successfully lobby to get foreign students in obviously China
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 07:36
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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Cebu Pacific also has a Cadet Pilot "Fly Now, Pay Later" Program with FTA. I wonder if these cadets were sent home.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 07:58
  #64 (permalink)  
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CPL graduation is fairly useless in the next three years as you have all the low hour GA drivers laid off ahead of you regardless of how well you claim you are.

2023 onwards seems to be a safer bet. 23/24 you then ride out of the rest of the decade in GA.

Those joining the CPL club mid this decade won’t have any issues later on considering the mass retirements forecasted next decade and the exodus to Emirates et all which will commence at some point in the future again.

I would be holding off if anyone is considering however make sure you revisit in the future if you want to be apart of what I think it’s going to be the years of jobs plenty, the 2030s.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 15:09
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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The real problem in getting international going is going to be trust & confidence & combine that with language cultural difference
, whether via "safe bubbles" or people claiming to have been vaccinated. Aside from dealing with NZ

It's just going to make it incredibly complicated - hope I'm wrong

I certainly have zero faith in the Vict Govts ability to quarantine international arrivals (happening next month) & really hope Fed Govt don't allow to occur
Vict Govt continues to make arrogant comments & boast about how they lead Aussie in contract tracing & the leader states he is needed to do the recovery
Stated today he "will not" follow NSW isolation model (which is more rigorous). Do not open your borders to Vic , it is a true mad house here (been living in Melb a few years now) the Socialist Left Govt here will drag down rest of country even further

That's why CPL/IR right now for Aust/NZ is a very bad idea, absolutely no way to predict. I would have thought getting 50% of international back in five years
from this point in time would be a great result - it might take twice as long.

All the advice on US focused forums the same to go to Aviation Uni (Embry Riddle , Purdue etc) do aviation degree plus licences would just be crazy

Last edited by Telfer86; 8th Oct 2020 at 15:55.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 21:38
  #66 (permalink)  
Keg

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For context QF has just under 2300 pilots. 600 of them were due to retire in the next decade and of those, 250 are likely gone by the end of November 2020. If we hit ‘pre COVID’ levels within 3 years (even money is my guess) that will create a demand for at least those 250 pilots plus whoever else is needed depending on A350 crewing requirements.
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Old 8th Oct 2020, 22:38
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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Rosy coloured glasses dogma

1. A350 is coming
2. International back to normal in three years
3. Heaps and heaps of pilots needed
4. Futures so bright you gotta wear shades
5. Do the QF cadetship its all good as gold

Just keep saying it all again and again and again - it makes it so so much more persuasive and believable

The retirements metrics have changed , these guys are down a lot of coin & significantly more will try to transfer back to SH & stay for as long as possible after 65
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 00:39
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
For context QF has just under 2300 pilots. 600 of them were due to retire in the next decade and of those, 250 are likely gone by the end of November 2020. If we hit ‘pre COVID’ levels within 3 years (even money is my guess) that will create a demand for at least those 250 pilots plus whoever else is needed depending on A350 crewing requirements.
Love your confidence Keg.

For the sake of all my friends in QF and the profession in general, I hope you’re right?
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 02:17
  #69 (permalink)  
 
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Trying to convince young people cadetships are just oh so wonderful & the future is just so promising

Quite likely it will end up with disastrous results for young people direct out of school, large debt no prospect of QF work or GA work & $150k debt

Great form what a chap, bravo

Unusual interest in QF retirement numbers & most willing to suggest a good time for the older cohort to go, interesting
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 07:04
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post
The retirements metrics have changed , these guys are down a lot of coin & significantly more will try to transfer back to SH & stay for as long as possible after 65
The bulk of the 60-65 cohort will be leaving soon so not too many reaching 65 over the next few years. SH training isn’t exactly a walk in the park, and the job is a lot different. Most don’t stay for more than a few years.

As far as super goes the market is now at April 2019 levels so balances are well on the way to recovering, and a lot of defined benefit super is only dependant on the best 3 years in the last 10, of which there won’t be any better than the last 3 for a while.

A lot of signs on the domestic front are showing quite a quick bounce back to 2019 levels, and international would be similar. Someone up high has seen a reason to start multiple Academy courses into the first half of next year that won’t have the cadets graduating until well into 2022. Quite possibly long term forecasts are seeing a need for them
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 08:29
  #71 (permalink)  
Keg

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I don’t see Telfer’s comments except when others quote them.

Some may try and stay but there needs to be an available slot for them to stay for. Currently there are zero and unlikely to be any at any stage prior to this time next year. There is no hope in Hades that FWA would rule that Qantas must create a vacancy on a fleet where 70+% of crew are stood down in order to allow someone 65 to continue.

Someone in the 63-65 bracket also needs to consider the early retirement offer in front of them and if aged between 63 and 64.5 what a difference that (tax free) sum is going to make to their bottom line compared to hanging on for a couple of years until they’re able to start and then doing a conversion course.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 11:27
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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Telfer, how many years’ LWOP did you take?

I’m just hoping you have put your money where your mouth is, and have taken at least 5-10 years.

I should be retired by then, so hopefully I won’t ever have to share a cockpit with you.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 23:20
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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A lot of signs on the domestic front are showing quite a quick bounce back to 2019 levels, and international would be similar.
A lot of assumptions with that statement. The WA government has stated that it wont be opening its borders until June 2021 and while C19 is in the community at such low levels, by world standards, Qld,Tas and SA are going to open and shut their borders on a regular basis. The domestic market will remain patchy at best so any forecast of a quick bounce back is premature.

Someone up high has seen a reason to start multiple Academy courses into the first half of next year that won’t have the cadets graduating until well into 2022. Quite possibly long term forecasts are seeing a need for them
You could be right but never underestimate the inability of the left hand not talking to the right hand. I remember Jetstar cancelling the cadet courses in anticipation of reduced growth then recruiting direct entry for two years because their were no cadets. Then they restarted the cadet course and I think a lot of the first course were graduating at the end of 2018. So just because someone up the food chain has decreed that courses will start next year doesn't mean they have any inside knowledge of the future of aviation post covid. What is the caveat at the end of the industry super ads; past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 03:46
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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Any flying school churning out batches of 20-30 new CPL holders will likely go under, given the outlook for the next few years. This may lead to problems towards the end of this decade if the jobs start appearing but the training capacity is lacking. It may seem to some people that now is a good time to train but with years of guaranteed no job ahead a new licence holder will have forgotten most of what he learnt and require extensive retraining when the market picks up. Any employer will want a fresh graduate over one that got his licence 5+ years ago and isn't current or up to speed on the latest equipment, regulations and procedures.

Flying clubs with a sideline in CPL training should survive but may need to wind down a bit.

At the moment I wouldn't even think of getting a CPL and would be looking at other career options for the next few years. However if flying was my dream job I would aim to save as much money as possible and keep a careful eye on the situation for when the upturn begins. Possibly get a PPL and do just enough to stay current whilst studying for the ATPL exams at leisure. Once you're sure the investment won't be wasted then complete the training, this should put you ahead of someone starting from scratch and give you nice fresh instrument and multi engine ratings to go door knocking with.

Just for reference, my employer laid off 25% of flight crew in estimation of what would be the required number in 3 years time. Once recruitment begins again, all the retrenched pilots have priority for employment. After those that want to return are taken on, there will still be many rated and experienced pilots on the job market to choose from.
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 04:52
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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Exactly!

Retrenched Pilots from virtually all the operators will be entitled to retain their relative seniority for 5 years (nominal). Even allowing for retirements, hundreds if not close to a thousand will begin to resign from what they have been doing to survive, and head back to the cockpit. I know I would. Every newly minted CPL and graduated Cadet that have not been inducted prior will have to wait until the last of these pilots have been offered re employment, just to be considered!

IMHO, 5-10 years?
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 06:05
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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Retrenched Pilots from virtually all the operators will be entitled to retain their relative seniority for 5 years (nominal). Even allowing for retirements, hundreds if not close to a thousand will begin to resign from what they have been doing to survive, and head back to the cockpit. I know I would. Every newly minted CPL and graduated Cadet that have not been inducted prior will have to wait until the last of these pilots have been offered re employment, just to be considered!
IMHO, 5-10 years?
The other real consideration in all this is the way the Labor Governed States are behaving. There is no real appetite to actually enable freedom of movement within Australia from the Labor Premiers. What was once a speculative question could become very real and that is how long QF and VA could actually hang on for if the borders remain closed well through 2021. It could be game over for both of them and the entire travel industry.

Originally I would have expected to be back to normal domestically by Christmas but it is looking pretty unlikely unless the Federal Government steps in.
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 06:21
  #77 (permalink)  
 
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Realistically, a laid off pilot with a seniority number and a promise is looking at 3 - 4 years out of the flight deck, depending on

1. The strength of the recovery.
2. How close to required numbers his airline will be at, did they overshoot or undershoot with the layoffs.
3. His position on the return list.
4. The airlines ability to train, check and return people to service.

A suitable pilot with experience and a decent type rating, without a queue number or bottom of the list could easily be looking at 4 - 5 years.
New licence holders easily 5+ years.
A tiny minority were lucky and got previous jobs back, such as the RFDS, or went to REX for the B737 but most have ended up with jobs well below their qualifications and ability.

The result of COVID could be a significant shortage of pilots at particular career points in the decades ahead as a gap of years when little to no training was undertaken moves through the system. First there's few suitable applicants for F/O jobs and few training schools, then there are few F/Os with the required experience to upgrade then there are few experienced captains. A future pilot in primary school today could be looking at a wide body command with QF on the East Coast in under 10 years.
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 07:28
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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Some interesting observations Krismiler. While I’m certainly not saying you are wrong, predicting just what hiring requirements will exist in a decade, really is crystal ball stuff.

On the subject of what the future of Cadetships in Oz will look like? I can sum it up in one word.

REDUNDANT!
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 19:40
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
The other real consideration in all this is the way the Labor Governed States are behaving. There is no real appetite to actually enable freedom of movement within Australia from the Labor Premiers. What was once a speculative question could become very real and that is how long QF and VA could actually hang on for if the borders remain closed well through 2021. It could be game over for both of them and the entire travel industry.

Originally I would have expected to be back to normal domestically by Christmas but it is looking pretty unlikely unless the Federal Government steps in.

What do you mean by “the way Labor Governed States are behaving”?

last time I checked NSW, SA and TAS were all Liberal Governed states and they all have border restrictions in place? Or does that not suit your narrative?
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Old 10th Oct 2020, 21:18
  #80 (permalink)  
 
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You took the words out of my mouth re political parties of the locked states. Left / right don’t enter into it. It’s bleeding state populism.

As for green shoots of recovery... I queried ML TWR at 0800L this week about any preceding aircraft getting visual in the low cloud as we started the ILS. “We haven’t had an arrival for over and hour” was the reply. A weekday morning on what was one of the busiest air routes in the world.

Around the country, Perth is the busiest yes - but with intrastate stuff.
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