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ABC: Pilot Shortage ‘flipped around’

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ABC: Pilot Shortage ‘flipped around’

Old 27th Jul 2020, 00:44
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Asia
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A few years ago we had a 50 year old with a brand new CPL get taken on, about 4 years later he was upgraded to Captain. That won't be happening again for a long time.

Newly qualified licence holders will be waiting for a long time for their first break and there will obviously be issues with recency, but those who are in their 20s still have a chance of an aviation career.

Those who are 60+ and were flying A380/B747 probably won't be going back and need to grab the best early retirement/voluntary redundancy package they can get.

Those in their 50s are a mixed bag. Some may have done well enough to consider early retirement where as others still need the golden years in the left seat to set themselves up. Some may be on obsolete types and not worth retraining where as others may be on new types and can justify being employed for another 15 years.

Those in their 40s flying heavy equipment such as A330/B787 should be okay but may be out for a couple of years until demand returns. They have a good level of experience and can easily downgrade to narrow body if needed.

Captains around the age of 30 flying A320/B737 will have it best as they can still have 30 years flying ahead of them once travel picks up again, are still reasonably sharp when it comes to regaining their skills and domestic/regional will be the first sector to recover.

Any projected pilot shortage in 10 years time isn't worth considering for the politicians, just kick it down the road for whoever's in charge then.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 00:50
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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I looked after recruitment at my previous operator over a decade ago, having a very aged, and experienced pilot body, we started some long term mapping on what the future holds for recruitment. We did this in conjunction with the regulator who was able to give us an insight into something we needed, data. The data is on par with the above, there is going to be considerable retirements 2033-2040, assuming the retirement age of 65. The unknown is how it’s going to play out within that period for those that are left. Going to be a lot of fast upgrades and high turnover at operators as they try to fill seats and maintain some form of experience. Remuneration in the sandpit will be highly attractive later down the track as they struggle to fill seats. The regionals will get burnt with high turnover and have a hard time of maintaining those in the left seat. Experience and quality of candidates at places like Jetstar will be low compared to what it is today, as everyone will move onto legacy carriers.

The point above of mass producing pilots above, being a ‘number’ is true for some operators, but not all. I assume you are referring to Emirates who lowered requirements in recent years. That carrier has had questionable safety incidents in the last decade. The culture had also taken a large dive there in recent times, and they have reached out to numerous other operators in a effort to hire top trainers to fix their problems. I fly with cadets mass produced. Some good, some not so good, are they the future trainers and CPs of this country, I don’t think so. Not from the behaviour that I have seen recently from some.


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Old 27th Jul 2020, 00:52
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dctPub View Post
I've got a 10 year re-employment clause in our contract. If my number comes up in that 10 years then they have to take me back.

In the meanwhile I'm not even going to think about flying. That first sim back will be fun.
That clause has been around for decades and I can't recall a single one who has ever been asked to return under it. "Anybody know anyone that has" ?.

Last edited by Xeptu; 27th Jul 2020 at 00:58. Reason: Extended
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 02:27
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by finestkind View Post
Very much a new lesson to be learnt. 911, GFC, SARS and now Corona. A specific trade that due to the explosion of the middle class’ affordability to travel has expanded air travel from the 70/80’s to mammoth industry that not only is aircrew but all that goes with travel. Easyheat’s point on having quals in other trades is valid. As a pilot you trade/qual’s are reliant on air travel, hence airlines, of which no matter how good your qual’s are you cannot ply without that employment. It will be very interesting to see how air travel pan’s out over the next few years and the impact this has on careers in the aviation industry. Even without Corona Xeptu’s point on training was/is also valid. Airlines set their own requirements for employment. So if they are happy to train you for 12 months and throw you in a seat that is and has been acceptable for that position, that is what will happen. Flying is no longer piloting but systems operation. You no longer are a Captain as decision's will be made by the manager back at base.



AUST your point is common sense AND when has common sense played a part in business. If you can get a 25 yo with bugger all experience but enough to satisfy whatever why would you employ a 40 + y.o whom you may only get 20 years out. Yes I and everyone else would rather have the 40 y.o. up front but the company does not see it that way.
Good grief. Why do posters feel the need to pontificate on subjects they are clueless about.
Its not about rights or privileges of individual Pilots. Its about keeping an Airline alive.
Each Pilot in a major Airline is trained under an approved matrix of simulator training plus recurrent Licence and Instrument Ratings , Line Checks , EP’s , DAMP ,etc. etc.
Let it all lapse and its a nightmare.
I recall a similar event 31 years ago. It took a decade to get back to the pre-Dispute standards.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 02:39
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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I ask myself, how can it be that you can be the best pilot in the world and be unemployed? This is not possible for a doctor, an engineer, a dentist or someone who has skilled qualifications in other branches. Maybe we are also skilled, but we are as individuals too easy to replace by some one else, who are willing to do it cheaper, or sacrifice more.
You can't compare any industry to medicine that is unique in that Doctors and other associated professions will always be in demand. The other issue there is that Doctors themselves control the labour market for doctors and have significant influence politically. Doctors will always be overpaid as they control their own salary and labour supply not the market.

As for every other job it is dependent on the market for your services. It doesn't matter how good you are at anything if noone wants to buy it that's the way it is. Imagine being the best manufacturer of radial engine, pocket calculators, the world's best publisher of annual reports. Just because you make the best product or are good at something doesn't mean that you will be employed. Why is it that if you win one golf tournament on the PGA you get circa US$1 000 000 while the World's Croquet Championship is amateur?

Don't think that every white collar profession is a guarantee to print money either. There are plenty of very good engineers out there who are discovering that there are engineers just as good as them from Bangladesh or India who will work for a salary that wouldn't even paid rent in Australia. Journalism careers got blown up by the internet. Good luck finding a long term career in news reporting. Laywers too are getting squeezed. Every Uni in Australia pumps out law graduates every year which only diminishes your chance of a payrise.

So at the end of the day Pilots will have to accept it isn't personal and have to go find another way of being employed. The issue here is that Pilot skills are not readily recognised by employers and don't have qualifications that cross over into other industries unlike just about every other qualification.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 03:31
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2003
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Gents thank you for your comments. For those of you that make disparaging remarks about the poster, well you can understand why the Captain’s authority is no longer what it was with that level of maturity.



Chookcooker. At least your comment was about the post. I will still disagree that a Captain today has the same authority to make the decisions that Captain’s made in the 50’s/60’s/70’s. For those of you that take affront to having your four bars questioned or your pursuit of those four bars take note I am talking about decision making and not responsibility. Try exercising your Captain’s authority particularly if it flies in the face of your companies SOP’s and see how long your employment continues.



Ruprecht you certainly have made me see why my post was so far off mark.



Wheelsdown see above response to chook.



George Glass. Let me pontificate on my post, which was a post in agreeing with a couple of points made by two other posters ( I know really, pontificating on other pontificator’s, realllly) and a few of my thoughts. Not to certain where I stated anything about rights and privileges of pilots but I agree it is about keeping Airlines alive. At this time pilots are required for that to happen but given the number of threads and post about the treatment from pay to sick leave to training cost to contractual obligation for training etc., etc., I do not think the Airlines are too concerned about pilot’s but more about profit. Your lamington, sorry lamentations on training, checks and currency requirements are true but a) support the statement of all those qual’s only being good if you have a job (unlike the ability to find work a lot easier with other trade/professional qual’s) b) support the point (prob poorly made) of all that work for a very specific line of work and, c) your contradictory last sentence. All this maintenance of standards that can be so easily eroded and so takes 31 years to get back to “pre-dispute standards”. Does this not align with the concern of having less experienced people up the front. “Each Pilot in a major Airline is trained under an approved matrix of simulator training” Are you indicating that every major airline has the same training requirements for employment.

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Old 27th Jul 2020, 03:38
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
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Honest question and I mean no malice by this, who regrets becoming a pilot? and if you could do it all over again, what careers would you get into?
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 03:40
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by f1yhigh View Post
Honest question and I mean no malice by this, who regrets becoming a pilot? and if you could do it all over again, what careers would you get into?
I do but I know if I didn't I would regret it too. Engineering would have been my career or perhaps a trade.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 03:46
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by finestkind View Post
Gents thank you for your comments. For those of you that make disparaging remarks about the poster, well you can understand why the Captain’s authority is no longer what it was with that level of maturity.



Chookcooker. At least your comment was about the post. I will still disagree that a Captain today has the same authority to make the decisions that Captain’s made in the 50’s/60’s/70’s. For those of you that take affront to having your four bars questioned or your pursuit of those four bars take note I am talking about decision making and not responsibility. Try exercising your Captain’s authority particularly if it flies in the face of your companies SOP’s and see how long your employment continues.



Ruprecht you certainly have made me see why my post was so far off mark.



Wheelsdown see above response to chook.



George Glass. Let me pontificate on my post, which was a post in agreeing with a couple of points made by two other posters ( I know really, pontificating on other pontificator’s, realllly) and a few of my thoughts. Not to certain where I stated anything about rights and privileges of pilots but I agree it is about keeping Airlines alive. At this time pilots are required for that to happen but given the number of threads and post about the treatment from pay to sick leave to training cost to contractual obligation for training etc., etc., I do not think the Airlines are too concerned about pilot’s but more about profit. Your lamington, sorry lamentations on training, checks and currency requirements are true but a) support the statement of all those qual’s only being good if you have a job (unlike the ability to find work a lot easier with other trade/professional qual’s) b) support the point (prob poorly made) of all that work for a very specific line of work and, c) your contradictory last sentence. All this maintenance of standards that can be so easily eroded and so takes 31 years to get back to “pre-dispute standards”. Does this not align with the concern of having less experienced people up the front. “Each Pilot in a major Airline is trained under an approved matrix of simulator training” Are you indicating that every major airline has the same training requirements for employment.

If I could understand the point of your post I’d respond. But.........
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 03:53
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
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Originally Posted by Ladloy View Post
I do but I know if I didn't I would regret it too. Engineering would have been my career or perhaps a trade.
Sorry for your situation. It's a catch 22, regret it if you hadn't done it, regret it because covid has impacted your way of living. I hope things work out for yourself.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 04:03
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
You can't compare any industry to medicine that is unique in that Doctors and other associated professions will always be in demand. The other issue there is that Doctors themselves control the labour market for doctors and have significant influence politically. Doctors will always be overpaid as they control their own salary and labour supply not the market.

As for every other job it is dependent on the market for your services. It doesn't matter how good you are at anything if noone wants to buy it that's the way it is. Imagine being the best manufacturer of radial engine, pocket calculators, the world's best publisher of annual reports. Just because you make the best product or are good at something doesn't mean that you will be employed. Why is it that if you win one golf tournament on the PGA you get circa US$1 000 000 while the World's Croquet Championship is amateur?

Don't think that every white collar profession is a guarantee to print money either. There are plenty of very good engineers out there who are discovering that there are engineers just as good as them from Bangladesh or India who will work for a salary that wouldn't even paid rent in Australia. Journalism careers got blown up by the internet. Good luck finding a long term career in news reporting. Laywers too are getting squeezed. Every Uni in Australia pumps out law graduates every year which only diminishes your chance of a payrise.

So at the end of the day Pilots will have to accept it isn't personal and have to go find another way of being employed. The issue here is that Pilot skills are not readily recognised by employers and don't have qualifications that cross over into other industries unlike just about every other qualification.

Pilots aren’t like Doctors for the simple reason that you cant hang out your shingle and start practicing.
But a Surgeon mate of mine , who also flies , says he feels the same way when doesn’t fly for a while as when he doesn’t operate for a couple of weeks. If people think Pilots are glorified bus drivers , well good luck. But I’ll take experience , training and recency thanks very much.
The first couple of years after ‘89 were a debacle and the Australian industry was very lucky to get away with it. We don’t need a repeat.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 04:05
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
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Originally Posted by f1yhigh View Post
Honest question and I mean no malice by this, who regrets becoming a pilot? and if you could do it all over again, what careers would you get into?
I don't regret being a plane driver as I have/had a few other skills behind me, I never put all my eggs in the one basket., payed off big time!
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 05:13
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2018
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
That clause has been around for decades and I can't recall a single one who has ever been asked to return under it. "Anybody know anyone that has" ?.
I'm gonna go out on a limb as assume that you don't work for Air NZ since they haven't made anyone redundant since the 90s. So to answer you question, I guess we'll see? The recent CEA change only reinforced the right to return so I'm not sure how the company will wiggle out of that one.

Honest question and I mean no malice by this, who regrets becoming a pilot? and if you could do it all over again, what careers would you get into?
I regret leaving my previous company where I would have been "safe" from redundancy. I'm off to finish my degree in the next 1.5 years and then we'll see.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 05:28
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by f1yhigh View Post
Honest question and I mean no malice by this, who regrets becoming a pilot? and if you could do it all over again, what careers would you get into?
I can’t say I regret becoming a pilot, I always loved flying but hated the Airline Industry. It’s a hard road when you consider what you have to do to stay in it.

Would I do it again, that’s also a hard question and based on what I know today as a retiree, which isn’t known while you’re in it Today probably not, at least not airlines.
911 was the game changer. I can’t say it was fun beyond that.

What do I miss, the sunrise and sunset at altitude, capturing the sight of space junk entering the atmosphere at night.
Christmas eve before 911, I used to bring the kids up to the flight deck and bullshit them about santa out there off the port wing overtaking us, (port position light not visible from the cabin) the awe in their eyes.

What don’t I miss, getting up at 3am to go to work, waking up in a hotel and just momentarily not knowing where I am, driving home on the freeway, tired in the dark.

None of my kids went down the aviation road, thank goodness. Age for age they are more ahead of the game than I was at their age. My eldest almost owns his own home, at 35 I was just getting started.
A tip, if you can, choose a partner who is not aviation, otherwise when it’s over you’ll have no friends outside of aviation, it has its own language that no-one else understands. It takes 2 years minimum to disengage and get your head around a world outside of aviation.

Today, I love my life, retirement is good to me, although I admit for the first few years I wondered if I had made a mistake going early, but no, it was the right decision, I was fortunate enough to be able to make.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 06:13
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
I can’t say I regret becoming a pilot, I always loved flying but hated the Airline Industry. It’s a hard road when you consider what you have to do to stay in it.

Would I do it again, that’s also a hard question and based on what I know today as a retiree, which isn’t known while you’re in it Today probably not, at least not airlines.
911 was the game changer. I can’t say it was fun beyond that.

What do I miss, the sunrise and sunset at altitude, capturing the sight of space junk entering the atmosphere at night.
Christmas eve before 911, I used to bring the kids up to the flight deck and bullshit them about santa out there off the port wing overtaking us, (port position light not visible from the cabin) the awe in their eyes.

What don’t I miss, getting up at 3am to go to work, waking up in a hotel and just momentarily not knowing where I am, driving home on the freeway, tired in the dark.

None of my kids went down the aviation road, thank goodness. Age for age they are more ahead of the game than I was at their age. My eldest almost owns his own home, at 35 I was just getting started.
A tip, if you can, choose a partner who is not aviation, otherwise when it’s over you’ll have no friends outside of aviation, it has its own language that no-one else understands. It takes 2 years minimum to disengage and get your head around a world outside of aviation.

Today, I love my life, retirement is good to me, although I admit for the first few years I wondered if I had made a mistake going early, but no, it was the right decision, I was fortunate enough to be able to make.

Well said.

Walking the dogs I met a group of people in the park. One turned out to be another stood down Airline employee from another carrier. A complete stranger . We talked for half an hour . Everybody else drifted away.
You are right though. Its a hard road.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 10:38
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
I can’t say I regret becoming a pilot, I always loved flying but hated the Airline Industry. It’s a hard road when you consider what you have to do to stay in it.

Would I do it again, that’s also a hard question and based on what I know today as a retiree, which isn’t known while you’re in it Today probably not, at least not airlines.
911 was the game changer. I can’t say it was fun beyond that.

What do I miss, the sunrise and sunset at altitude, capturing the sight of space junk entering the atmosphere at night.
Christmas eve before 911, I used to bring the kids up to the flight deck and bullshit them about santa out there off the port wing overtaking us, (port position light not visible from the cabin) the awe in their eyes.

What don’t I miss, getting up at 3am to go to work, waking up in a hotel and just momentarily not knowing where I am, driving home on the freeway, tired in the dark.

None of my kids went down the aviation road, thank goodness. Age for age they are more ahead of the game than I was at their age. My eldest almost owns his own home, at 35 I was just getting started.
A tip, if you can, choose a partner who is not aviation, otherwise when it’s over you’ll have no friends outside of aviation, it has its own language that no-one else understands. It takes 2 years minimum to disengage and get your head around a world outside of aviation.

Today, I love my life, retirement is good to me, although I admit for the first few years I wondered if I had made a mistake going early, but no, it was the right decision, I was fortunate enough to be able to make.

that about sums it up in a nut shell!
I too was fortunate that none of my sprogs where interested in aviation, they dodged a bullet there as I did (cost wise) -)
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 10:44
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
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Pilot Shortage flipped around and now ATC Shortage flipped around.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 10:56
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Chookcooker. At least your comment was about the post. I will still disagree that a Captain today has the same authority to make the decisions that Captain’s made in the 50’s/60’s/70’s. For those of you that take affront to having your four bars questioned or your pursuit of those four bars take note I am talking about decision making and not responsibility. Try exercising your Captain’s authority particularly if it flies in the face of your companies SOP’s and see how long your employment continues.
Finestkind, I, for one have gone against SOP’S multiple times in the interests of safety and my employment continued. I think your full of it and are either a failed upgrade or someone bitter with the system. Once in the air it is the Captains authority all the way, although I just noticed your location says SAUDI, well your in another world buddy, if that’s your world then sorry about that, it’s different everywhere else, the Captain rules the roost when airborne, unless your in Saudi obviously! 😂

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Old 27th Jul 2020, 11:09
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
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In fairness, the captains decision making authority hasn't changed, what has changed is that because of our sophistication and technologies, there are less things to make a decision on.
Responsibility hasn't changed, In law under emergency conditions, the Captain can over-ride any rule, requirement or procedure in the interests of safety. The Captain is still accountable for that action. A classic example of peer review and accountability would be Sully.
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Old 27th Jul 2020, 12:02
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
A few years ago we had a 50 year old with a brand new CPL get taken on, about 4 years later he was upgraded to Captain. That won't be happening again for a long time.
To be fair, a 50 year old has some other qualifications than a younger version of said person, even comming from the outside give something someone living inside will never obtain.

I hate to say it, but as I get older myself, as everyone else, even I feel that normal life experience is changing a person, mostly into a person with a broader view on things, a better understanding, and eventhough we probably do not admit it, we all become better "captain"-stuff just from agening a bit.

Sure, you can find old grumpy men as well, but they're often a class of strange inbred creatures, who have stuck around the same fold for too long, and have lost any track of how life is outside.
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