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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

Old 11th May 2021, 06:55
  #1081 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 1A_Please
JH has forced a discipline on the business that it lacked over the past decade.
Debatable. Possibly an optical illusion from what I’ve been told. Some old habits have apparently started to re surface again.
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Old 11th May 2021, 07:03
  #1082 (permalink)  
 
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Jayne did mention about carrying the pain of paying the costs of the $39 fares herself (against REX) for a bit.

https://www.afr.com/companies/transp...0210505-p57p7x
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Old 12th May 2021, 03:48
  #1083 (permalink)  
 
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You're right. VA appears to be doing very well at the moment.
Deservedly. I have been using VA often over the last 3 months for inter and intra state business travel. The service has been top notch.
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Old 12th May 2021, 09:26
  #1084 (permalink)  
 
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https://simpleflying.com/rex-orders-...box=1620797820

Looks like they're so happy with the services that another 4 737s are on the way with JS claiming things are going better than planned! 🤔
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Old 12th May 2021, 10:19
  #1085 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pinkpanther1
https://simpleflying.com/rex-orders-...box=1620797820

Looks like they're so happy with the services that another 4 737s are on the way with JS claiming things are going better than planned! 🤔
Things are going that well.....or this was always the plan and they had no way of getting out of the additional 4 aircraft?

Having said that - they do need some sort of economies of scale to make this whole thing work....
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Old 12th May 2021, 10:21
  #1086 (permalink)  
 
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So going back to the initial Rex strategy this is what they had to say about operating statistics and projections;

The best way to have a good handle on the revenue projections is to consider the following (using the Syd-Mel route as a guide) ▪ One aircraft carries about 300,000 pax a year at 80% load factor
▪ Average ticket price is $200 (pre-Covid)
▪ If Rex’s cost advantage is 30% then that means $60 per ticket
▪ Giving up $20 as fare discount and assuming the $40 as profits would translate to $12M profits per aircraft
▪ 10 aircraft would translate to $120M profits
▪ In reality, the average cost per passenger (crew, fuel, engineering, lease etc) for typical carrier would be about $50 ▪ Depending on where the average ticket price will land, the profits per aircraft could be very significant
Are Rex getting an 80% load factor?
Is the average ticket price $200?
Do they still think that 10 aircraft are going to “translate to $120M profits”?
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Old 12th May 2021, 23:34
  #1087 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pinkpanther1
https://simpleflying.com/rex-orders-...box=1620797820

Looks like they're so happy with the services that another 4 737s are on the way with JS claiming things are going better than planned! 🤔
You cannot reasonably trust anything that bloke says. The other 4 737s are on the way likely for one reason - that's how Rex structured the leasing deal back late last year. The leasing would have been arranged as a package - there would have been some float in the delivery/acceptance schedule and Rex will have pushed that as far back as they can within the bounds of the deal. And given Rex's management and all the hoopla, another factor that is likely playing out is saving face.

Sharp also said
“I was talking to one of our pilots this morning. He says he’s never done a flight between Melbourne and Adelaide, or back the other way without 160 passengers onboard the aircraft that takes 165 passengers. So it gives you an idea of the load factors that we’re getting.
Does anyone believe any of that? ZL437 from Melbourne to Adelaide this morning will be flat out cracking 100 pax and ZL444 from Adelaide to Melbourne this afternoon will almost certainly have no better than a 50-60% load. And, of course, the Deputy Chairman seems unaware that 'the aircraft' actually takes 176 pax - 8 J, and 168 punters.
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Old 12th May 2021, 23:48
  #1088 (permalink)  
 
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Quote:
The best way to have a good handle on the revenue projections is to consider the following (using the Syd-Mel route as a guide) ▪ One aircraft carries about 300,000 pax a year at 80% load factor
▪ Average ticket price is $200 (pre-Covid)
▪ If Rex’s cost advantage is 30% then that means $60 per ticket
▪ Giving up $20 as fare discount and assuming the $40 as profits would translate to $12M profits per aircraft
▪ 10 aircraft would translate to $120M profits
▪ In reality, the average cost per passenger (crew, fuel, engineering, lease etc) for typical carrier would be about $50 ▪ Depending on where the average ticket price will land, the profits per aircraft could be very significant
Are Rex getting an 80% load factor?
Is the average ticket price $200?
Do they still think that 10 aircraft are going to “translate to $120M profits”?
That is pretty damning. Cost per pax was estimated at $50 with a load factor of 80%. Currently it seems REX is getting a LF of around 40% at best meaning cost per pax is $100. At the same time they are flogging tickets for $39 so they are nowhere near their planned $200. $120M could still be the right figure just with a negative sign in front.
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Old 16th May 2021, 02:48
  #1089 (permalink)  
 
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Just waiting for the entire operation to fizz out whilst munching on popcorn.

Sure, mid year school holidays might add some punters to backfill what would’ve been Tiger’s operation but other than that it’s bleeding.

Mates (who used to work at Rex) have issues with their terrible middle management and staff morale is at a terrifying low.

Qantas and Jetstar will live another day.
So too, will Virgin. I heard at the terminal the other day: “Rex who?”
Virgin still has name recognition and a loyalty scheme. What’s Rex going to offer? DingoDollars? RexDollars?

Everyone in Australia was already sold on the idea that if you ain’t going Qantas, then you going Virgin. JH seems to be doing a better job at V then at the star, as long as their old ways don’t creep back in, Rex will be gone in under 18 months.
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Old 16th May 2021, 03:02
  #1090 (permalink)  
 
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The question is, will the financial problems of the 737 operation bring the whole company to a halt ? Or have they managed to financially quarantine the profitable turboprop operations from the 737 ops ?
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Old 16th May 2021, 08:19
  #1091 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by slice
The question is, will the financial problems of the 737 operation bring the whole company to a halt ? Or have they managed to financially quarantine the profitable turboprop operations from the 737 ops ?
Not sure of any “financial quarantine”, but it’s my understanding that both operate under the one AOC?
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Old 16th May 2021, 09:37
  #1092 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by slice
The question is, will the financial problems of the 737 operation bring the whole company to a halt ? Or have they managed to financially quarantine the profitable turboprop operations from the 737 ops ?
From publicly available information there's no financial firewalling between any of Rex's operations. The "parent" Regional Express Holdings has deeds of cross guarantee with all the Rex entities (eg Pel-Air, Rex Freight and Charter, Rex Investment Holdings, the Pilot Academy, etc). The debts of any entity become the debts of the parent and vice versa. Much like Billy Joel sang, "we'd all go down together".
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Old 16th May 2021, 11:39
  #1093 (permalink)  
 
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What a bunch of morbid bastards you are, particularly the knob with the popcorn
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Old 16th May 2021, 13:32
  #1094 (permalink)  
 
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Probably no more morbid than the published REX playsheet which openly planned to capitalize on Virgin's demise.
I'd say that would have put more than a few affected people offside.
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Old 16th May 2021, 13:45
  #1095 (permalink)  
 
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For those who remember Compass Mk I and II it all looks very familiar.
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Old 16th May 2021, 21:49
  #1096 (permalink)  
 
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What a bunch of morbid bastards you are, particularly the knob with the popcorn
Got popcorn and beer to watch the John Sharpe sh1tshow end.... hate to think what that makes me.
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Old 16th May 2021, 22:41
  #1097 (permalink)  
 
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I have a beer and jerky watching his show.
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Old 16th May 2021, 23:50
  #1098 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Trevor the lover
What a bunch of morbid bastards you are, particularly the knob with the popcorn
If John Sharp and Rex weren't such poor sports people might be a little more supportive. The fact that they cry, moan and stomp their feet the second they don't get their way just puts people off. Any bad feelings people have for them have be brought upon themselves.
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Old 17th May 2021, 06:26
  #1099 (permalink)  
 
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Can confirm it's a separate operation.
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Old 17th May 2021, 09:41
  #1100 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry to call you morbid bastards with your popcorn and coke. Rather than reflecting on Sharp's behaviour, I tend personally to think of the huge amount of decent people trying to feed their kids. But if eating popcorn and hoping more people lose their livelihood is what brings you joy.....well, drink up.
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