Quote:
The best way to have a good handle on the revenue projections is to consider the following (using the Syd-Mel route as a guide) ▪ One aircraft carries about 300,000 pax a year at 80% load factor
▪ Average ticket price is $200 (pre-Covid)
▪ If Rex’s cost advantage is 30% then that means $60 per ticket
▪ Giving up $20 as fare discount and assuming the $40 as profits would translate to $12M profits per aircraft
▪ 10 aircraft would translate to $120M profits
▪ In reality, the average cost per passenger (crew, fuel, engineering, lease etc) for typical carrier would be about $50 ▪ Depending on where the average ticket price will land, the profits per aircraft could be very significant
Are Rex getting an 80% load factor?
Is the average ticket price $200?
Do they still think that 10 aircraft are going to “translate to $120M profits”?
That is pretty damning. Cost per pax was estimated at $50 with a load factor of 80%. Currently it seems REX is getting a LF of around 40% at best meaning cost per pax is $100. At the same time they are flogging tickets for $39 so they are nowhere near their planned $200. $120M could still be the right figure just with a negative sign in front.