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Old 17th Sep 2020, 03:59
  #1721 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer View Post
You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.
Get a grip...
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 05:02
  #1722 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
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Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer View Post
You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.
Thank god for that, I thought it was something serious like a pimple on the nose. I'm sure you will survive. Give it a squeeze lets see what happens tomorrow.
Next patient please.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 05:16
  #1723 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Oz
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Are you chaps sure you aren't confusing influenza with pneumonia?
Found some pneumonia figures for 2017....4269 pneumonia related deaths making it the 9th leading cause of deaths in Australia for that year.

To date there have been 824 deaths attributed to Covid 19 in AUS.

Just saying,......

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Old 17th Sep 2020, 05:25
  #1724 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
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Originally Posted by Square Bear View Post
To date there have been 824 deaths attributed to Covid 19 in AUS.
Just saying,......
Would you care to estimate how many COVID deaths we would have had if the Federal & State governments had not taken action?
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 05:48
  #1725 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Oz
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BuzzBox,
not against many of the precautions that the various Governments have taken at all, and in no way a denier....just believe some of the internal Border “closures” and some of the restrictions are over the top and seem simply hardwired to the “statement” that the restrictions are there for the health of that particular States population. .

Take the NT, “closed” borders.....,until the election was over that is. Queensland has an election coming up so easier to hide behind the banner of keeping you safe, magically the $110 Billion State Debt is not an issue and the State Borders open once that election is over.

And what gets me, how can each State have a Chief Medical Officer, the Commonwealth having one as well and they all come up with different restrictions about the same Covid, not like its a Qld Covid vs a NSW Covid vs a WA Covid etc etc.

Sure, by all means the Covid pandemic must be taken seriously, but how about looking at other causes of death at the same time and consider all the issues.

And as I said.....Just saying and ......just having a viewpoint.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 06:23
  #1726 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 57
Posts: 464
This well written NYT may help

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....erica.amp.html

So we don’t really know how many flu deaths a year - as most of those who are presumed to have died from a flu-related illness don’t get tested and are not reported in official figures.

We don’t know how many cases of COVID there have been in Australia - it likely lies between 70,000 (smh report yesterday) and 500,000 (NSW CHO estimate back in July). Either way, we have missed most infections.

It’s all a bit of a mess, but it is what it is. Things are not black or white. Biological systems are not aircraft, and public health is not CASA.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 07:38
  #1727 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
This well written NYT may help

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....erica.amp.html

So we don’t really know how many flu deaths a year - as most of those who are presumed to have died from a flu-related illness don’t get tested and are not reported in official figures.

We don’t know how many cases of COVID there have been in Australia - it likely lies between 70,000 (smh report yesterday) and 500,000 (NSW CHO estimate back in July). Either way, we have missed most infections.

It’s all a bit of a mess, but it is what it is. Things are not black or white. Biological systems are not aircraft, and public health is not CASA.
But for months many MANY tests have been taken with or without symptoms - it does not seem to be floating around in the back ground unnoticed. Certainly not in the estimated numbers you gave since we have taken around 7,200,000 tests to date = to around 27,000 positive cases.

Given lots of work places and sports groups have had mandatory testing since about the start - little to no (not aware of a single one) random cases have popped up.

But that is just my reasoning for not believing the estimates.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 09:35
  #1728 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Australia
Posts: 316
Originally Posted by LapSap View Post
Get a grip...
I assumed Chronic Snoozer's comments were sarcastic ... at least I bloody hope so!
Stickshift3000 is offline  
Old 17th Sep 2020, 09:55
  #1729 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Coal Face
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Originally Posted by LapSap View Post
Get a grip...
"Lighten up, Francis"
Chronic Snoozer is offline  
Old 17th Sep 2020, 11:26
  #1730 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 57
Posts: 464
The data from multiple serosurveys around the world have shown that anything up to 20% of a population have antibodies (and hence their immune system has been challenged by the virus). Places like NYC and Northern Italy have antibody rates of this level. In both cases, that was WAY in excess of their positive swab test rate.

Other places have lower numbers, but same pattern with antibody rates consistently >> swab rates.

Part of the explanation is the swab is not that sensitive. Within the first few days of exposure to the virus, the swab will usually be negative - even in people who will become infected. In the first few days after exposure and before symptoms, 70-80% of swabs will be negative.

Understand that most testing is in this group - people who were at a hotel or whatever 2 nights ago. 80% of people who become infected may well be negative that early. But finding 20% is useful from a public health perspective as it may allow you to get R0 from 1.2 to 0.95 or whatever. If you do the public health swabs at 6-7 days after exposure, most of them will be positive, but by then these people will have infected others. So the swabs will be more accurate, but too late to help.

Same at the other end. The swab becomes negative again about 2 weeks after exposure. It is only a short window of 7 -10 days or so when the swab is likely to be positive.

So understand that the number of positive swabs has only a very lose association with what is happening in the community.


Graph 1 - different tests over time
Exposed at week - 1
Symptom onset at week 0 (7 days post-exposure)
Nasal PCR swab is blue line. Goes up a few days after exposure, peaks 1-2 days after symptoms, and is gone in a couple of weeks.
Green is IgG antibody. Later to rise, but stays up.
Over time, you will find more people with antibodies than ever had a positive swab - either they were not swabbed, or you missed the 2 week window.



Graph 2 (top) - sensitivity of PCR over time
x axis = days since exposure
vertical dashed line = day 5 when symptoms usually start
y axis = probability nasal PCR will be NEGATIVE in a person who definitely has (or will get) COVID.
So guaranteed to miss day 0 and 1.
Maybe a few positive day 2 and a few more day 3
Day 4 may be positive in 1/3
By day 5, positive in greater than 50%

Most swabs done have been by public health on days 2-3.
Public health isn't your doctor trying to tell if you are going to get sick
Public health isn't primarily about capturing the most complete data - if so would swab days 6-7
Public health is trying to identify and stop chains of future transmission before they are established. You develop symptoms on day 5, and peak infectivity is earlier at day 4 (highly unusual - whether by accident or design, this virus is a bastard to track and contain). Allowing 24 hours to perform test and notify positive, that means you need to swab around day 2-3, when the test is poor. But you will find a few positives, and will find them in time to stop them infecting others. By day 7-8, you can find most of them - but after they have infected other people.

If you have R0 a bit above 1.0, finding 20% of future infectious people and isolating them may be enough to drive R0 below 1.0.

So that is how public health and PCR tests work.
Can you use this data to go back and say how many infections there have been in your community? No. Absolutely not.



Last edited by slats11; 17th Sep 2020 at 17:53.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 14:04
  #1731 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: MCG
Posts: 133
1 hr 7 min ago

World Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across Europe

From CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.

Turnleft080 is offline  
Old 17th Sep 2020, 22:06
  #1732 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
Posts: 900
Originally Posted by Turnleft080 View Post
1 hr 7 min ago

World Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across Europe

From CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.
Because deaths lag cases, as you should well know by now. Of course the northern autumn/winter period has been predicted to be worse than the summer for obvious reasons. Regarding Vitamin D: some races do not react to sunlight the same as most caucasian people so supplements are needed. Vitamin D supplements are also not known to cause melanoma.
Australopithecus is online now  
Old 17th Sep 2020, 22:24
  #1733 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,024
Originally Posted by Turnleft080 View Post
1 hr 7 min ago

World Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across Europe

From CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.
Because the deaths will arrive in 2 - 3 weeks, thats why.

2 - 3 weeks from now the fatality graph will look like the infection graph, only smaller.

The two week lag works the other way too. It take two weeks for any measures to improve the situation to have any effect.

currawong is offline  
Old 17th Sep 2020, 23:59
  #1734 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Because the deaths will arrive in 2 - 3 weeks, thats why.

2 - 3 weeks from now the fatality graph will look like the infection graph, only smaller.

The two week lag works the other way too. It take two weeks for any measures to improve the situation to have any effect.
Actually not exactly the case that’s happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/

France for instance. From the graph of reported cases (concentrating on the 7 day moving average) you can see there was a similar number of cases on August 28 (3 weeks ago) as there was at the peak of the first wave on roughly April 3rd. The corresponding deaths per day were already high but began to fall roughly 2 weeks later.

The second wave is already at double the moving average deaths per day but no corresponding increase in cases has been seen. The deaths per day moving average is at less than 40 today (Sep 18), if it was concurrent with the first wave the deaths per day should be at least 1000 per day and climbing.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

Second example Spain. They’ve had a slight higher second wave deaths per day but it’s still les than one tenth of the first wave. Their second wave peaked 30 days ago, Aug 19, but the corresponding deaths per day increase has been a fraction of the first, even though it should have risen within 14-21 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

Then Germany. Moving average of cases per day 4 times higher than early July but average deaths still in single digits.

The UK’s second wave only started to increase at the start of the month so if there’ll be any increase in deaths it’ll happen over the next week or two, but if they follow the same pattern as the other 3 countries it won’t rise at all.

Look at the graphs, even after the second wave has been happening in Europe for more than a month, the deaths per day are not increasing. It is undeniably less deadly than the first wave.





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Old 18th Sep 2020, 00:09
  #1735 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tent
Posts: 684
They have changed the causes.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/
Bend alot is offline  
Old 18th Sep 2020, 05:53
  #1736 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,024
Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Actually not exactly the case that’s happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/

France for instance. From the graph of reported cases (concentrating on the 7 day moving average) you can see there was a similar number of cases on August 28 (3 weeks ago) as there was at the peak of the first wave on roughly April 3rd. The corresponding deaths per day were already high but began to fall roughly 2 weeks later.

The second wave is already at double the moving average deaths per day but no corresponding increase in cases has been seen. The deaths per day moving average is at less than 40 today (Sep 18), if it was concurrent with the first wave the deaths per day should be at least 1000 per day and climbing.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

Second example Spain. They’ve had a slight higher second wave deaths per day but it’s still les than one tenth of the first wave. Their second wave peaked 30 days ago, Aug 19, but the corresponding deaths per day increase has been a fraction of the first, even though it should have risen within 14-21 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

Then Germany. Moving average of cases per day 4 times higher than early July but average deaths still in single digits.

The UK’s second wave only started to increase at the start of the month so if there’ll be any increase in deaths it’ll happen over the next week or two, but if they follow the same pattern as the other 3 countries it won’t rise at all.

Look at the graphs, even after the second wave has been happening in Europe for more than a month, the deaths per day are not increasing. It is undeniably less deadly than the first wave.
Generally I agree, but for different reasons.

During the earlier peak, there was a bias towards only testing the sickest, due to test kit availability.

Now most get a test. Case fatality rate should therefore decrease, as testing rate increases, which it appears to be.

Bottom line? As cases go up, so will deaths. But should be more like Australia's 3% CFR and less like UK"s horrendous 11% CFR.

All down to test availability.

Respiratory viruses tend to follow cold weather patterns of circulation, putting Australia in a good position right now.

Northern hemisphere? Not so much.

currawong is offline  
Old 18th Sep 2020, 06:34
  #1737 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Now most get a test. Case fatality rate should therefore decrease, as testing rate increases, which it appears to be.

Bottom line? As cases go up, so will deaths. But should be more like Australia's 3% CFR and less like UK"s horrendous 11% CFR.
Even less, looking at the France and Germany figures of infections 14 days ago to deaths today the CFR was 0.7 and 0.5%.

Average influenza CFR? I’ve seen 0.1-0.6%?
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Old 18th Sep 2020, 06:44
  #1738 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,024
Yes, as more info comes to hand , the more we know.

Deaths are perhaps not all the info we need.

For example, UK covid hospital admissions have trebled in the last fortnight.

One would hope their rate of survival will be a lot better than those admitted three or so months ago.
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Old 18th Sep 2020, 07:31
  #1739 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 190
Originally Posted by Bend alot View Post
useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0
Joker89 is offline  
Old 18th Sep 2020, 08:51
  #1740 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,024
Originally Posted by Joker89 View Post
useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0
Your table only shows Australia.

Here is a more complete picture, 12 months, global.

Current 9 month numbers place it about 11th in a 12 month table. (2017 data)

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/a...eaths-by-cause


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