Australia Border enforced isolation 12am Monday
The fatality rate is 1 death per 23 infections globally, the greater majority are over 60 yrs of age.
The global case fatality rate is about 3.4%. That is, 3.4% of diagnosed cases have died.
But for every diagnosed case, there are many undiagnosed milder cases who don't die - maybe by a factor of 2-3 times. We don't know the size of this group - we can't measure what we can't see. Its like the bit of an iceberg that is under water.
We expect that about 50% of the global population will be infected by this virus. But many (probably most) will never know they had it. The CFR only relates to the minority who are sick enough to get diagnosed - not to the broader pool of people who get infected.
The italian CFR (5.8%) is higher than this 3.4%. However
i) Italy has a very old population - oldest in Europe
ii) Italy is not testing nearly as many people as China did. China was very active with testing (people were trying to avoid being tested to avoid going to a grim quarantine facility, and so testers were going round to peoples houses and checking temperatures and testing if febrile). Hence China found more of the milder (and lower risk) cases who were not seeking medial attention and who were hiding out at home. Korea was also very active at testing and finding mild cases and so also has a low CFR.
Trying to compare CFR between countries is like comparing apples and oranges. Because we are not calculating how many infected people die. We are calculating how many diagnosed cases died, and different countries are diagnosing in different ways.
Best guess is that the number of infected patients who die is perhaps 1 - 2%, although it could be even lower. We won't know that figure for a while. But it will be significantly less than the CFR.
So if 50% of population get infected (whether diagnosed or not) and if 1% of these die, then we are talking 0.5% of population - mostly elderly. Thats still bad and still a lot of people, but way better than 1:23. The total number of deaths look confronting because we have a global population > 7 billion.
Look at the Italian graphic below. Overall CFR 5.8%. But it is overwhelmingly the elderly. Even through your 60's, your risk of dying is significantly less than the 5.8% overall CFR. Even in the 70's (where the CFR does go up to 9.6%), late 70's will be significantly worse than early 70's.
Comorbidities are an issue. But they have plenty of comorbidities in Italy. Of 14,000 diagnosed cases, only 2 deaths < 50 years old, only 16 deaths < 60 yrs, and only 81 deaths < 70.
It is confusing, so I hope that makes sense.
The Italian data is probably the most useful right now:
Large enough number of cases for statistics to be meaningful
High degree of transparency and honest reporting
Similar demographics and health system to Australia.
slats11 - great post.
I think the South Korea data is probably the best for looking at CFR (circa 1%) - they have done the greatest level of testing as far as I can see and also have one of the lowest CFRs. So either a) they have a best treatment/health service response, or b) they have weaker "strain" of Covid (2 have been identified but no one seems to think one is more or less virulent than the other) or c) they have a much better (and higher) count of overall cases as they have been testing the most people?
This sort of assumption also works for the current UK CFR numbers that to me look high as a proportion of overall cases but we've only been testing folks who have presented at hospitals with significant symptoms.
There's no way to prove any of this is true/false at the moment as we don't have apples or oranges to compare. That being said your analysis looks sensible to me.
I think the South Korea data is probably the best for looking at CFR (circa 1%) - they have done the greatest level of testing as far as I can see and also have one of the lowest CFRs. So either a) they have a best treatment/health service response, or b) they have weaker "strain" of Covid (2 have been identified but no one seems to think one is more or less virulent than the other) or c) they have a much better (and higher) count of overall cases as they have been testing the most people?
This sort of assumption also works for the current UK CFR numbers that to me look high as a proportion of overall cases but we've only been testing folks who have presented at hospitals with significant symptoms.
There's no way to prove any of this is true/false at the moment as we don't have apples or oranges to compare. That being said your analysis looks sensible to me.
slats11 - great post.
I think the South Korea data is probably the best for looking at CFR (circa 1%) - they have done the greatest level of testing as far as I can see and also have one of the lowest CFRs. So either a) they have a best treatment/health service response, or b) they have weaker "strain" of Covid (2 have been identified but no one seems to think one is more or less virulent than the other) or c) they have a much better (and higher) count of overall cases as they have been testing the most people?
This sort of assumption also works for the current UK CFR numbers that to me look high as a proportion of overall cases but we've only been testing folks who have presented at hospitals with significant symptoms.
There's no way to prove any of this is true/false at the moment as we don't have apples or oranges to compare. That being said your analysis looks sensible to me.
I think the South Korea data is probably the best for looking at CFR (circa 1%) - they have done the greatest level of testing as far as I can see and also have one of the lowest CFRs. So either a) they have a best treatment/health service response, or b) they have weaker "strain" of Covid (2 have been identified but no one seems to think one is more or less virulent than the other) or c) they have a much better (and higher) count of overall cases as they have been testing the most people?
This sort of assumption also works for the current UK CFR numbers that to me look high as a proportion of overall cases but we've only been testing folks who have presented at hospitals with significant symptoms.
There's no way to prove any of this is true/false at the moment as we don't have apples or oranges to compare. That being said your analysis looks sensible to me.
1. A lot of cases were in the religious cult = young adults
2. They rounded up and tested the members of that cult - and diagnosed cases where people were positive but had no symptoms (= very mild disease). It is hard to die from a resp infection if it is not causing any resp symptoms. All these subclinical cases got bundled up into their CFR. In Australia, these people are walking around spreading the disease.
3. Unlike UK, Italy, USA, Aust etc, Korea has increased its number of beds over time in line with its ageing population. Oddly enough, we have done the opposite. So they have a greater surge capacity.
China did a neat trick for 48 hours. Allowed clinical and radiological diagnosis (rather than microbiological confirmed) for 48 hours to get a whole lot extra cases (15,000 from memory) into their dataset - and significantly lower their CFR.
Last edited by slats11; 16th Mar 2020 at 14:39.
slats11 - thanks for that - interesting.
If I was china I'd be selling my "Build a 1,000 bed hospital in a week" model around the world right now.....
Given the number of bed blockers in UK hospitals (no local care places) I can't believe we can't bulk purchase hotels (as per the heathrow quarantine location a few weeks back), shift a load of "low nursing requirement" folks out to these "hospitels" and use final year student nurses and medics to keep an eye on them to free up beds in proper hospitals for the surge to come. Mind you - given the volumes expected this probably buys 1-2 weeks capacity at best...... Enough time for china to build us a few 1,000 bed units?
If I was china I'd be selling my "Build a 1,000 bed hospital in a week" model around the world right now.....
Given the number of bed blockers in UK hospitals (no local care places) I can't believe we can't bulk purchase hotels (as per the heathrow quarantine location a few weeks back), shift a load of "low nursing requirement" folks out to these "hospitels" and use final year student nurses and medics to keep an eye on them to free up beds in proper hospitals for the surge to come. Mind you - given the volumes expected this probably buys 1-2 weeks capacity at best...... Enough time for china to build us a few 1,000 bed units?
https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15...h-coronavirus/
So they already had 180 known cases (zero deaths). Thats a fair number in a small country (0.05% of their population), but they do like to travel.
They then swabbed volunteers from their population. Found another 7 positive results from 700 swabs (1% positive). That number will firm up with a few thousand more swabs coming back over the next few days.
The true number of people who should have a positive swab will be a bit higher than 1% as swabs miss 20-30% of cases. So maybe they had 10 positives, and the swabs found 7 of them - something like that.
Hence perhaps 1.2% of their population currently could have a positive swab if the swabs were perfect.
Then there is going to be even more people who would have previously had a positive swab a week or two back, but are now negative.
So perhaps 1.5% of the population currently have the virus, or have already cleared the virus.
Playing with the math a bit more (and this is stretching things a bit I accept, we don't know if the 700 swabs are a representative cross section of their society):
Population Iceland = 365,000
They already knew about 180 cases from routine medical care
But there could be another 5,475 unknown cases (1.5% population).
So not that many cases will ever get diagnosed.
Note that half the cases didn't have any symptoms, and the rest thought they had a cold.
Anyway if somewhere like Iceland (small and remote from China) now has something like 1.5% of its asymptomatic / minimally symptomatic population infected, it is going to be way higher than 1% in Australia (and about 100% in Sydney)
This suggests there is a fair chunk of under-water ice with the corona iceberg.
So they already had 180 known cases (zero deaths). Thats a fair number in a small country (0.05% of their population), but they do like to travel.
They then swabbed volunteers from their population. Found another 7 positive results from 700 swabs (1% positive). That number will firm up with a few thousand more swabs coming back over the next few days.
The true number of people who should have a positive swab will be a bit higher than 1% as swabs miss 20-30% of cases. So maybe they had 10 positives, and the swabs found 7 of them - something like that.
Hence perhaps 1.2% of their population currently could have a positive swab if the swabs were perfect.
Then there is going to be even more people who would have previously had a positive swab a week or two back, but are now negative.
So perhaps 1.5% of the population currently have the virus, or have already cleared the virus.
Playing with the math a bit more (and this is stretching things a bit I accept, we don't know if the 700 swabs are a representative cross section of their society):
Population Iceland = 365,000
They already knew about 180 cases from routine medical care
But there could be another 5,475 unknown cases (1.5% population).
So not that many cases will ever get diagnosed.
Note that half the cases didn't have any symptoms, and the rest thought they had a cold.
Anyway if somewhere like Iceland (small and remote from China) now has something like 1.5% of its asymptomatic / minimally symptomatic population infected, it is going to be way higher than 1% in Australia (and about 100% in Sydney)
This suggests there is a fair chunk of under-water ice with the corona iceberg.
- The data supports their findings.
- I don't have a tinfoil hat. Conspiracy theorists love to be suspicious of everyone else - no matter what their level of qualification and commitment to their craft - but would lose their minds at the suggestion that they themselves would violate their own professional ethics for some nefarious reason.
slats11 - thanks for that - interesting.
If I was china I'd be selling my "Build a 1,000 bed hospital in a week" model around the world right now.....
Given the number of bed blockers in UK hospitals (no local care places) I can't believe we can't bulk purchase hotels (as per the heathrow quarantine location a few weeks back), shift a load of "low nursing requirement" folks out to these "hospitels" and use final year student nurses and medics to keep an eye on them to free up beds in proper hospitals for the surge to come. Mind you - given the volumes expected this probably buys 1-2 weeks capacity at best...... Enough time for china to build us a few 1,000 bed units?
If I was china I'd be selling my "Build a 1,000 bed hospital in a week" model around the world right now.....
Given the number of bed blockers in UK hospitals (no local care places) I can't believe we can't bulk purchase hotels (as per the heathrow quarantine location a few weeks back), shift a load of "low nursing requirement" folks out to these "hospitels" and use final year student nurses and medics to keep an eye on them to free up beds in proper hospitals for the surge to come. Mind you - given the volumes expected this probably buys 1-2 weeks capacity at best...... Enough time for china to build us a few 1,000 bed units?
I hate to say it but this is really serious on multiple levels. Media, Business, Government and the WHO have totally misled the public.
Best example of this is masks. They don’t want YOU to wear a mask so THEY (hospitals) can wear one. You should not only wear a mask but also eye protection. Have you seen the doctors in Italy and China? They are dressed like they are at Chernobyl 1987. I’ve been following this very closely (non main stream media). Why won’t they close schools? Doctors and nurses have children at schools. No schools=No medical staff.
Real dog eat dog. Protect yourself and your family. Good luck.
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Best example of this is masks. They don’t want YOU to wear a mask so THEY (hospitals) can wear one.
You need to wear one if you are sick (flu like symptoms) and going out in public, Ad you should only be going out of sick if it’s absolutely necessary. Otherwise don’t wear a mask.
Our vulnerable populations are those ones who will need the masks, so don’t be a tosser and deprive them of masks.
If you are a healthy person, not only is wearing a mask useless, you’re also limiting the supply for those who need them.
You need to wear one if you are sick (flu like symptoms) and going out in public, Ad you should only be going out of sick if it’s absolutely necessary. Otherwise don’t wear a mask.
Our vulnerable populations are those ones who will need the masks, so don’t be a tosser and deprive them of masks.
You need to wear one if you are sick (flu like symptoms) and going out in public, Ad you should only be going out of sick if it’s absolutely necessary. Otherwise don’t wear a mask.
Our vulnerable populations are those ones who will need the masks, so don’t be a tosser and deprive them of masks.
Sorry that’s wrong, you limit the amount of exposure giving the body a chance to mount its own defence. If it made no difference why are France and hospitals scrambling to get them. Don’t believe the media government your company or the WHO, they have THEIR agendas your agenda is YOUR health and YOUR family.
Surgical masks in the community are only helpful in preventing people who have coronavirus disease from spreading it to others. If you are well, you do not need to wear a surgical mask as there is little evidence supporting the widespread use of surgical masks in healthy people to prevent transmission in public
If you are NOT sick: You do not need to wear a facemask unless you are caring for someone who is sick (and they are not able to wear a facemask). Facemasks may be in short supply and they should be saved for caregivers.
Stop with the conspiracy theorist rubbish. It’s those who tell others to ignore the guidance of health professionals that causes these problems. Just like the toilet paper hoarders.
A Comment like that are the last thing that needs to be made in the current environment.
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I'm not surprised Italy has it so bad. Ageing population and a pretty ****ty health system. Even at the best of times you wouldn't want to get sick in Italy.
I sincerely hope that we can deal with this a bit better.
I sincerely hope that we can deal with this a bit better.
So you would be happy for someone with the condition to sneeze in your face?
Northern Italy hasn’t got a **** health system. Lombardy is one of the wealthiest parts of Europe. There’s a good chance the reporting is accurate and therefore showing the reality unlike Indonesia or China who suddenly is cured!
Northern Italy hasn’t got a **** health system. Lombardy is one of the wealthiest parts of Europe. There’s a good chance the reporting is accurate and therefore showing the reality unlike Indonesia or China who suddenly is cured!
You know who is at risk from that? Healthcare workers, who are around sick and vulnerable people 24/7. They are the ones who need a well stocked supply of masks. So situations like these are avoided which are perpetuated by BS conspiracy theorist fearmongering hoarders like yourself who are putting our frontline healthcare heroes at risk:
Coronavirus COVID-19 mask shortages mean GPs are shopping at hardware stores for supplies
1 in a billion chance that someone in your vicinity does a dirty big sneeze without covering up? You know aerosol/airborne particles don’t just drop straight down to the ground yeah?
I'm not worried about it enough to start panic hoarding masks and depriving frontline health workers and vulnerable populations of them.
Believe whatever you want about the general public's need for high grade PPE. Social distancing will do far more than a N95 with no eye protection. But believe whatever you want.
But believe this also. When the PPE is gone, so are the frontline staff.
But believe this also. When the PPE is gone, so are the frontline staff.
So next steps?
No foreign arrivals allowed, only citizens? Malaysia announced that yesterday.
After that it is NO ARRIVALS at all.
Just stop and think about that for a minute,
No foreign arrivals allowed, only citizens? Malaysia announced that yesterday.
After that it is NO ARRIVALS at all.
Just stop and think about that for a minute,
Bit of freight. That's it.
We won't let foreign nationals in as they very often can't quarantine for 14 days
Other countries won't let Australians in for the same reason.
Thats the international ball game.
Domestic operations only 60% down for now. But will go deeper - people are already scared of airports and flying, and the people haven't seen anything to be really scared about yet.
Notice Flight Centre squealed about these measures and Qantas didn't.
Guess who has been told there is a bail-out if he plays ball.
We won't let foreign nationals in as they very often can't quarantine for 14 days
Other countries won't let Australians in for the same reason.
Thats the international ball game.
Domestic operations only 60% down for now. But will go deeper - people are already scared of airports and flying, and the people haven't seen anything to be really scared about yet.
Notice Flight Centre squealed about these measures and Qantas didn't.
Guess who has been told there is a bail-out if he plays ball.
Last edited by slats11; 17th Mar 2020 at 14:45.