The fatality rate is 1 death per 23 infections globally, the greater majority are over 60 yrs of age.
Not to discount the seriousness of this, but the odds are significantly better than than that. Let me try to explain.
The global case fatality rate is about 3.4%. That is, 3.4% of
diagnosed cases have died.
But for every diagnosed case, there are many undiagnosed milder cases who don't die - maybe by a factor of 2-3 times. We don't know the size of this group - we can't measure what we can't see. Its like the bit of an iceberg that is under water.
We expect that about 50% of the global population will be infected by this virus. But many (probably most) will never know they had it. The CFR only relates to the minority who are sick enough to get diagnosed - not to the broader pool of people who get infected.
The italian CFR (5.8%) is higher than this 3.4%. However
i) Italy has a very old population - oldest in Europe
ii) Italy is not testing nearly as many people as China did. China was very active with testing (people were trying to avoid being tested to avoid going to a grim quarantine facility, and so testers were going round to peoples houses and checking temperatures and testing if febrile). Hence China found more of the milder (and lower risk) cases who were not seeking medial attention and who were hiding out at home. Korea was also very active at testing and finding mild cases and so also has a low CFR.
Trying to compare CFR between countries is like comparing apples and oranges. Because we are not calculating how many infected people die. We are calculating how many diagnosed cases died, and different countries are diagnosing in different ways.
Best guess is that the number of infected patients who die is perhaps 1 - 2%, although it could be even lower. We won't know that figure for a while. But it will be significantly less than the CFR.
So if 50% of population get infected (whether diagnosed or not) and if 1% of these die, then we are talking 0.5% of population - mostly elderly. Thats still bad and still a lot of people, but way better than 1:23. The total number of deaths look confronting because we have a global population > 7 billion.
Look at the Italian graphic below. Overall CFR 5.8%. But it is overwhelmingly the elderly. Even through your 60's, your risk of dying is significantly less than the 5.8% overall CFR. Even in the 70's (where the CFR does go up to 9.6%), late 70's will be significantly worse than early 70's.
Comorbidities are an issue. But they have plenty of comorbidities in Italy. Of 14,000
diagnosed cases, only 2 deaths < 50 years old, only 16 deaths < 60 yrs, and only 81 deaths < 70.
It is confusing, so I hope that makes sense.
The Italian data is probably the most useful right now:
Large enough number of cases for statistics to be meaningful
High degree of transparency and honest reporting
Similar demographics and health system to Australia.
