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VA pilots worried about employment 2021

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VA pilots worried about employment 2021

Old 7th Mar 2020, 21:57
  #261 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
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Well if they are paying that bond with Cash then the balance will be down to 400m. But that number will be even lower once the next three halfís pass. Essentially it could be 100-200m left.

It looks like the MAX deal is largely split 50/50 lease/own also.

More cash needed!

Just get SQ to buy off Etihad, Chinese and the public.
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Old 7th Mar 2020, 23:43
  #262 (permalink)  
 
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Everybody should be aware the results released by VA on 26 Feb 20 were for the period ended 31 Dec 19. Likewise the S&P Global Ratings Outlook Update report issued on 28 Feb 20 was based on information released by VA on 26 Feb 20. S&P then factor in what they believe has taken place since 01 Jan 20 and what they see in the future.

Since the release of the S&P Update the outlook has become bleaker due to concerns about Covid-19 and the impact on travel generally. The share price has collapsed a further 17.14% and what happens between now and 30 Jun 20 will determine the future of VA. S&P modelling up to 26 Feb 20 showed VA defaulting in 2024 unless their trajectory changes for the better. Should it worsen default could occur earlier. The S&P modelling suggested there could be just $311M available to cover estimated 'claims' of $2B in round figures.

Should market passenger numbers start to reduce this week and the VA market share fall even lower due to concerns by agents and the travelling public there are concerns about the viability of VA the outlook could change for the worse very quickly.

Last edited by B772; 8th Mar 2020 at 00:29.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 00:20
  #263 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
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Yes B772, the 31st of June will be a very interesting day indeed
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 00:33
  #264 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks mr flappy. I have replaced 31 Jun with 30 Jun.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 05:16
  #265 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by CamelSquadron View Post
The reality is that nothing VA flies actually makes money.

Karl Schuster is still getting paid after his 9million payout, so something they fly must be making money.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 07:20
  #266 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
Well if they are paying that bond with Cash then the balance will be down to 400m. But that number will be even lower once the next three halfís pass. Essentially it could be 100-200m left.

It looks like the MAX deal is largely split 50/50 lease/own also.

More cash needed!

Just get SQ to buy off Etihad, Chinese and the public.
The "so called Messiah SQ" has been reported to not been happy with VA for some time, despite being equally responsible (alongside EY, HNA and to some extent NZ) for getting VA into the financial mess they are today.

SQ have also booked losses from their VA investment in their own financial reports, and it's assumed that SQ are writing off their VA losses.

There's a better chance of VA's other partners: DL or NH taking over VA, and that's NOT likely to happen either.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 07:51
  #267 (permalink)  
 
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There is no ‘White Knight’ scenario here. All major shareholders are suffering their own pain.

All VA employees need to think seriously about the future.

I’ve said it before, this looks a LOT like another Ansett.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 08:06
  #268 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
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In addition, SQ doesn't have a respective track record of investing in other airlines.

There was SQ's involvement by investing in the NZ/AN debacle, even though they had the chance to walk away from AN when NZ used their veto to block SQ from buying News Ltd's stake in AN.

SQ also invested in VS, which turned out to a complete financial disaster, which led to SQ selling up at a loss to DL.

There was also SQ's involvement in Tiger Airways Australia, which they ended up "selling to VA" to save face after all the PR & maintenance debacles.

And then there's SQ's own 20% stake in VA. In the early years they were hands on (along with EY) during the early JB reign, spent a lot of Capital and tipped so much money (especially during the "capacity war") and it turned out to be a complete financial disaster.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 22:05
  #269 (permalink)  
 
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I don’t think Etihad or HNA have any money to give, given their own financial troubles. I’m confident though that Virgin will survive.
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 22:24
  #270 (permalink)  
 
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The Virgin 777ís have small cargo doors as I recall. Unless that has changed, they would be virtually worthless in the currently depressed market.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 02:13
  #271 (permalink)  
 
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engine out: You are correct about EY. They are in a mess. Merger discussions with EK were called off when EK discovered financial skeletons in the EY closet relating to the collapse of Air Berlin. EY has been cancelling aircraft orders and reducing flying considerably. About 200 EY pilots have resigned or gone to fly with EK in the last 3 years. This figure does not include the pilots who were layed off.

The value of the EY investment in the bankrupt Alitalia may be known soon after 18 Mar 2020 if any offers are made to the Administrators for the purchase of Alitalia or any of its components. LH, AF and KL have indicated they have no interest.

The HNA group are a basket case with debt USD117B and currently losing USD14M per week. Assets are being sold at fire sale prices. One could presume HNA would accept any offer for their VA holding.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 02:54
  #272 (permalink)  
 
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The pot of money is empty....has been for a long time

Originally Posted by B772 View Post
The HNA group are a basket case with debt USD117B and currently losing USD14M per week. Assets are being sold at fire sale prices. One could presume HNA would accept any offer for their VA holding.
Spot on. Numerous airlines have seen this group as some sort of corporate airline saviour when the proverbial shit hits the fan. NOT SO. They have been trimming the crap for some time now, with not much of an effect. VHA is not a desirable asset in any way, shape or form. What most people donít see is that the 2008 GFC was just a precursor for a bigger event. In 2008 banks, financial institutions and corporations went bust. The big one is when full blown Countries go bust. Weíve already seen Spain, Italy, Greece. Then you have Ecuador, Jamaica, Belize and Argentina who have defaulted twice in the past two decades. China is collapsing along with the UK and the USA. YOU CANíT PRINT YOUR WAY OUT OF DEBT FOREVER. With China, India and Russia buying oil in their own currency and using gold as well, you have a recipe for disaster for the US dollar remaining as the oil currency for much longer. The world financial system is screaming a message loud and clear , a message that most people just donít want to hear. Anybody who has not be buckling in for a rough ride since 2008 is going to endure a lot of pain when the entire Ponzi scheme finally comes crashing down. An airline like VA being managed by half baked morons are no match for the approaching storm. Itís not if, itís when. And friends, VA are struggling already and the storm is still on distant finals!







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Old 9th Mar 2020, 03:12
  #273 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
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The value in VA the consortium only wants is the passenger traffic on to their metal underpinned by the loyalty programs and their 'reciprocal' benefits. 10m Velocity Australians weighted towards flying on EY et al for program benefits.

VA share price @ 0.77c. How low can it go...
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 05:04
  #274 (permalink)  
 
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T-Vasis: You had a slip of the pen. The VA share price is currently $0.077. The market capitalisation is equivalent to the cost of 2 x B777-300ER aircraft.

If you are a resident of PER and Velocity member EY would be of no interest to you. EY has withdrawn from PER completely plus another 15 destinations with more to follow.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 06:48
  #275 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
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Yes - a slip of the keyboard.

But B772 - what value is Perth to anyone. That's not where the population and demand is. And I don't speak to just EY - I speak to all members where the program benefits apply - that includes the key shareholders of VA - hence their investment in the first place. They didn't invest becasue VA was a cash cow... They invested to capture the AUS market share to fill their own seats. Hence my use of 'et al' in the original statement. You're either a QF or VA member (or both in some instances).
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 10:21
  #276 (permalink)  
 
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Might be a silver lining on the horizon. Oil Price absolutely dropping like a rock!

Crazy stuff! $20 oil not far off!

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Old 9th Mar 2020, 11:07
  #277 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
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So what's with the rumour that the A330 crews have been asked to take Leave without pay?
Apparently 2 days this month to start with.
Gotta be keen on that.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 11:19
  #278 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
Might be a silver lining on the horizon. Oil Price absolutely dropping like a rock!

Crazy stuff! $20 oil not far off!
Bit of a non-sequitur.

The primary reason itís falling is the Russians and Saudis canít figure out how much they have to cut production by when airlines (and everyone else) stops burning the stuff.

VA has a future but it canít forever keep paying its debt obligations by borrowing new debt like a dysfunctional family paying one credit card off with another. This has resulted in VA bonds being 8.5% at a time of record low interest rates. Iíd imagine the next bond rate is higher still. (The joys of a country where the banks would rather lend to prop up the housing market than to assist businesses). The billion dollars sitting in the bank earning nothing is all borrowed, costing VA approximately 85,000,000 a year for the necessity of an airline having a cash reserve as required by a high cash flow volatile business.

Sooner of later VA will have to improve its debt to equity ratio. Until then itís reliant on the bond markets and hoping the current panic wonít result in the credit market doing anything stupid.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 12:45
  #279 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
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Oils ainít oils

Just because the oil price is dropping it doesnít mean VA will benefit. If they have hedged a large percentage of their fuel at a higher rate then there is no benefit when the price drops as they still have to pay the high rate. Itís the opposite effect when you hedge a large quantity at a low price and then prices rise exponentially. Knowing how the Village morons operate, I would bet that they have hedged high. Theyíve done that before when the Godfrey gang were running the place and it almost sent them to the wall.
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Old 9th Mar 2020, 13:02
  #280 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
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Originally Posted by Buttscratcher View Post
So what's with the rumour that the A330 crews have been asked to take Leave without pay?
Apparently 2 days this month to start with.
Gotta be keen on that.

Rumour is fact
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