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Pilot shortage

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Old 27th Dec 2017, 02:35
  #441 (permalink)  
 
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The flood gates are well and truly open here (US). There are many guys and girls from my company getting job offers from 2 or even majors within a month. All straight to the RHS of E190 or bigger. If they go FEDEX or UPS, more than 50% chance of RHS wide body. They're now in a position where they can pick which company's they wish to work for and then see which offers the best basing and/or platform for their needs. Most commute from their chosen "home" to domicile without any issues. Not bad considering the dire situation not even 10 years ago. Would love to jump on the bandwagon myself but want to head back home to Oz, so waiting patiently for things to (hopefully) continue to pick up.
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 18:39
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Originally Posted by TULSAMI

“ Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton will allow foreign pilots to enter Australia on a two-year working visa to curb a shortage. The Australian reports a lack of pilots has already grounded planes and forced flight cancellations.“
Is there yet any data showing how many foreign pilots have been issued visas to fly in Australia ?
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 21:17
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“ Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton will allow foreign pilots to enter Australia on a two-year working visa to curb a shortage. The Australian reports a lack of pilots has already grounded planes and forced flight cancellations.“
Of course it is completely predictable. That is why despite the real estate treasurer Morrison, or the other side claiming they want wage growth, they actually do not.
Their 'sponsors' from the business council or any other employer lobby group won't allow wage growth...

Just remember demographics is driving the shortage.
Is it really surprising that a regional airline with bases in Sydney struggles for 'talent' with the money they offer?
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 21:38
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Instead of making the industry more attractive with better pay and conditions we choose to allow foreigners to work in this country.

We deserve everything we get as an industry if we allow this to happen.

Good luck with your standard of living for those joining now.
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 21:43
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Originally Posted by Tommy Bahama
Instead of making the industry more attractive with better pay and conditions we choose to allow foreigners to work in this country.

We deserve everything we get as an industry if we allow this to happen.

Good luck with your standard of living for those joining now.
Serious question here, with shortages worldwide, who will actually bother coming to Australia that actually meets the requirements?
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 21:51
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Serious question here, with shortages worldwide, who will actually bother coming to Australia that actually meets the requirements?
That is EXACTLY the point.

There are serious shortages globally.

Imagine living in Sydney Australia, paid an 'average' wage with the second most expensive housing in the world?

It is precisely as predicted, airlines will lobby to allow 'skilled shortage'

The political process is so corrupt, that they will pander to airlines, however there is a global, demographic and very structural shortage.

Be patient all, airline managers are on the wrong side of this one!
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 22:04
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Plenty of people will put up with the price of housing in Sydney to get their wives and kids into a country where they are safer than their current location.
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 22:29
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First off, I wouldn't lose any sleep over foreign pilots in Oz. As there is a shortage of pilots almost everywhere else in the world, too, I wouldn't expect a stampede, at most a trickle. Secondly, there are hundreds, if not thousands of Oz pilots flying all over the world. A bit of reciprocation is fair play, and think about what would happen here if they all came back. There would be no jobs for new hires for years... Piloting is an international career and protectionism would not be beneficial...

BUT

The shortage in OZ is not just a shortage of pilots (if it is that, at all). It is a shortage of training infrastructure. This may be a worldwide phenomenon, in fact. Airlines buy planes by the dozen, but the number of simulators does not keep pace. For example, Cobham (Qantaslink) operates the B717. They have 20 aircraft and exactly one simulator in Australia ... that is shared with Hawaiian Airlines. (Here is a list of the sims in Oz: https://www.casa.gov.au/licences-and...aining-devices )
Typing a pilot takes days or even weeks of sim time in 4 hour blocks. Meanwhile, the airline must do recurrent training for its current pilots, as well as upgrades. Each sim session requires a training captain and possibly a check captain. So there is a big -- non-revenue generating -- resource commitment.

From a casual scan of the web, it looks like Qantaslink's Dash-8 operation has 31 Q-400's, and 19 DHC-8-200/300s and about 380 pilots. That's less than 5 crews per plane, which is pretty thin. There only appears to be one Q-400 sim facility for those 31 planes and almost 400 pilots. While the check and training pilots are spending weeks in that facility training new hires, they are not available for recurrent training, upgrade training, or flying the line, so I'm guessing they are down to about 4 crews per plane who are actually available to fly at any given time. Perhaps someone on the inside there could clarify. To me it looks like a skeleton crew for an RPT op.

The training and check captains also happen to be prime targets for recruitment by other airlines. When they pull chocks the airline's training department resources are spread even thinner.

Edit: My bet would be that they would be looking for training captains to come and help with the training surge, not entry level FO's or even plain vanilla line captains. Like this job, for example: https://qantas.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com...uctor_R36134-1

Hiring foreign pilots in Oz on temporary work visas who are already rated in the aircraft would save weeks of sim time and months of training costs. Just a ride or two for currency and type conversion, then line training.

So, what's an aspiring CPL pilot with resumé in hand to do, eh?

Well... Taking Qantaslink and their DHC-8s as an example ... if I was a young buck looking to get a leg up in OZ, I would be looking at Spice Jet (Careers | SpiceJet Airlines), JetStar NZ (https://www.jetstar.com/au/en/career...ealand/1357905), Air NZ (https://careers.airnz.co.nz/jobdetai...irlines,000007) or some other foreign carrier who operates the same type as my target Oz carrier. You rock up typed and experienced on Mascot's doorstep, with international experience and a copy of your training file and they will be hard-pressed not to hire you. ... closer to home: Skippers (https://www.afap.org.au/pilot-jobs/p...0FLIGHT%20CREW) .

Last edited by Aloha_KSA; 27th Dec 2017 at 22:40.
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 22:39
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As there is a shortage of pilots almost everywhere else in the world, too, I wouldn't expect a stampede, at most a trickle.
More succinct than I could put it!
How long will it provide 'talent'

It is a predictable response from a system that always thought globalisation works one way:Import more labour to keep oversupply. This will keep wages pressure down and has been a neo-classical response for decades in Australia.

The problem for the recruitment, training and management of airlines is two fold:

  1. Supply is globalised both ways...
  2. Supply is short.
If the traditional supply is running low, it would probably follow that the traditional feeder routes (GA, Military and regionals) are low too.


The model they run has never encountered more than a cyclical shortage. This is the fundamental difference. They haven't seen it coming because the whole thing is set up on the underlying assumption of unlimited supply.


Piloting is an international career and protectionism would not be beneficial...
The best way to protect a strategic asset (HR take an oath never to call any labour group that ) is terms and conditions.



The law of economics is that supply will follow demand signalling. A market with insufficient supply will eventually raise the price on offer to attract that supply.


Australia is not there yet, but they will have to adjust and it isn't downwards...
Amusing to watch O'Leary grapple with his fatally flawed model!
Is amusing to watch Australia start to wake...
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 22:59
  #450 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tommy
We deserve everything we get as an industry if we allow this to happen.

Good luck with your standard of living for those joining now.
Just who are you referring to as "industry"? If you're referring to the employers, of course they "will allow it to happen".

If you are referring to the industry's pilots, you have no idea, and thanks for the "support".
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 23:14
  #451 (permalink)  
 
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There’s a puff of dust over the horizon Dutton, that was the horse that bolted about a year ago, this is now a massive structural shortage and there’s only one way it will be fixed....show me the money!
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 23:26
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Many of the Cathay Pacific pilot group are highly disgruntled with their lot in life in Hong Kong at the moment, the airline has been tightening the thumb screws on them rather maliciously for years. All to do with CX management disasters with their fuel hedging gamble which they need to recoup from the pilots salary budget, but that's another story. The solution to the pilot shortage in Australia is simple, the Australian airlines should just offer the CX pilots the same money they are on in Hong Kong. Many of those are Aussies anyway, no need for a 457. Cathay Pacific would be happy to offload all those expensive expatriate pilots and replace them with cheap Asian pilots. The Asian carriers would be forced to up their own training program to cover their losses to CX; heck, change a few things at CASA and they might even send their cadets to Australia to do flight training. It's a win win for both the Australian Airline industry who get access to a large group of highly experienced and well trained pilots, and a win for GA flight training industry who pick up contracts or get a good price for selling their business to foreign interests.
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 23:43
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Originally Posted by Aloha_KSA

So, what's an aspiring CPL pilot with resumé in hand to do, eh?

Well... Taking Qantaslink and their DHC-8s as an example ... if I was a young buck looking to get a leg up in OZ, I would be looking at Spice Jet (Careers | SpiceJet Airlines), JetStar NZ (https://www.jetstar.com/au/en/career...ealand/1357905), Air NZ (https://careers.airnz.co.nz/jobdetai...irlines,000007) or some other foreign carrier who operates the same type as my target Oz carrier. You rock up typed and experienced on Mascot's doorstep, with international experience and a copy of your training file and they will be hard-pressed not to hire you. ... closer to home: Skippers (https://www.afap.org.au/pilot-jobs/p...0FLIGHT%20CREW) .

But those jobs require experience and/or multi time too? How does one get the multi time in the first place in Australia GA market? Is there enough low end multi jobs for the fresh CPL's to get the multi time to make that jump?
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Old 27th Dec 2017, 23:56
  #454 (permalink)  
 
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I believe New hire Qantaslink pilots are required to complete the endorsement syllabus regardless of whether or not they hold a Dash 8 endo
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Old 28th Dec 2017, 00:12
  #455 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ViPER_81
But those jobs require experience and/or multi time too? How does one get the multi time in the first place in Australia GA market? Is there enough low end multi jobs for the fresh CPL's to get the multi time to make that jump?
Another totally bollocks requirement. The China Southern cadet pilots, whilst they do some twin and jet time as part of their basic training, their first job is on an Airbus A320 or Boeing 737. Train them properly and they can do the job. Why should it be any different here?
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Old 28th Dec 2017, 00:28
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Originally Posted by Brakerider
I believe New hire Qantaslink pilots are required to complete the endorsement syllabus regardless of whether or not they hold a Dash 8 endo
Correct,

They get a reduced line training period of 75 hrs vs 100, but 99% of the groundschool and sim is the same.
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Old 28th Dec 2017, 00:37
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Originally Posted by gulliBell
Another totally bollocks requirement. The China Southern cadet pilots, whilst they do some twin and jet time as part of their basic training, their first job is on an Airbus A320 or Boeing 737. Train them properly and they can do the job. Why should it be any different here?
But they do......
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Old 28th Dec 2017, 01:05
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Originally Posted by logansi
But they do......
Because the Australian Government is too gutless to tell them to spend the money on training locals to do the job as a condition of them bringing in foreigners to do the job. It's the Government the Australian people voted for, so those affected by it just need to suck it up. Or vote for the other mob next time. That is how a democracy works. Obviously things don't work like that in China, things just work. And for the record I prefer democracy, and the fact that our Army doesn't bayonet its citizens engaged in peaceful protest.
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Old 28th Dec 2017, 01:07
  #459 (permalink)  
 
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Train them properly and they can do the job
The problem remains; and that is the ethnic culture of their pilots. No need to elaborate because if you are not aware of the problem in terms of flight safety, then you have your head firmly in the sand
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Old 28th Dec 2017, 01:15
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Originally Posted by Centaurus
..No need to elaborate because if you are not aware of the problem in terms of flight safety..
I think safety is improving with these Chinese cadet pilots doing their training in an English speaking country...they arrive on the course with reasonable English, and that improves throughout their training. When they get in the cockpit of a passenger jet operating on International routes their comprehension of English is much better than the older generation Captains, and that makes it a safer crew when they understand what ATC and other occupants of the airspace are saying.
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