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Old 10th Oct 2017, 05:00   #301 (permalink)
 
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A little disingenuous.

Purely IR? i didn't state that, I said
Quote:
which is IR strategy designed to undermine mainline terms and conditions.
Whilst it may be public narrative that JQ was to be '23 aircraft' and Qantas pilots were reassured by Geoff Dixon circa 2003, that it was to pincer Virgin I ask simply:

  • how many aircraft is JQ operating now?
  • How many ASK do JQ fly?

I think you will find that;

As Dixon telegraphed to you in 2005;

'The move comes just days after Qantas said Jetstar would some day be "just as important as the main line" airline.'


'By next year Qantas's low-cost offshoot, Jetstar, plans to fly to Asia, and possibly Europe and North America.'

I am well aware of Mr Joyce's role, Gerry McGowan's offer to Qantas. The opportunities to which you refer would have been those ordinarily afforded to Qantas pilots prior to JQ's creation. As former CFO Gregg also telegraphed to you, in your joint Parliamentary hearing that JQ added 'competitive wage tension' across the group.

Mr Dixon telegraphed the developing or indeed changing strategy a little more stating;

'fuel and people now represented around 60per cent of the Group’s operating costs.“Many airlines are now achieving substantial cost improvements through Chapter 11bankruptcy protection, consolidation and mergers and government support – avenues not available to Qantas.'



Maybe you are correct and all of it is simply coincidence, the historical record may suggest that there was more to JQ than they were prepared to tell you in 2003.


How long Qantas can maintain downward pressure on terms and conditions (unit cost) is the question.
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Old 10th Oct 2017, 05:42   #302 (permalink)
 
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The pilot shortage situation is the ultimate own goal if you think about it. In their attempt to convince the industry and the traveling public that this is essentially an unskilled pastime that requires no experience, they’ve gutted the general aviation industry that fed them pilots for decades. Why would you start at the bottom when you can go straight in at the top?
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Old 10th Oct 2017, 05:53   #303 (permalink)
 
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The pilot shortage situation is the ultimate own goal if you think about it
That is why watching the adversarial model of IR disintegrate at Ryanair is so funny.

They convinced everyone (including new pilots) there are better pastimes. Given the time, expense and acumen required is not in unlimited supply the gaping hole in their model was evident but needed the first waves of demographic retirements to focus attention on their own downfall.

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Old 10th Oct 2017, 10:08   #304 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by DynamicStall View Post
Many segments of GA are being hit extremely hard at the moment, namely the niche operators such as the SAR, air ambulance and other special mission providers whom struggle to recruit pilots who meet stringent government or client contractual requirements.
Only thing that will fix this is MONEY and lots of it! Firstly to attract and then retain suitably experienced pilots. Government and corporate clients will need to put a higher dollar value on their contracts if they want their aircraft to fly.
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Old 10th Oct 2017, 11:57   #305 (permalink)
 
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Nearly a decade ago the Chairman of a well known Australian Regional airline stated, “I would rather cut off my right arm than pay my pilots more.”

The result of that infamous statement and intractable mindset was the wholesale decimation of the schedule. In the end it was the GFC and the overnight stoppage of expansion at the Majors that saved their arse. Otherwise the drain would have been terminal.

Get ready for round Two!

Last edited by KRUSTY 34; 14th Oct 2017 at 01:11.
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Old 10th Oct 2017, 13:24   #306 (permalink)
Keg

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Lightbulb

I recall on the QF recruitment thread that a number of people who were given rejection emails in March were subsequently invited in for an assessment centre. I wonder if the reasons for those subsequent invitations is related to the subject matter.

Of course, with an impending pilot shortage in Australia, training going flat out at Qantas, new 737 sim on the way, etc, surely an exonerated mic downturn is just months away?
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 09:19   #307 (permalink)
 
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The business cycle is to what you allude. Convention is the business cycle is around seven years between peaks. We are currently due excessive money printing (Quantitative easing) about eleven years into the cycle and well overdue for a correction..




When is the big question

It is this cycle the IR practitioners (a dark art if ever there was one) use to time their delay to negotiation in order to simultaneously threaten to take away any nominal salary(payment for delay) and drive through concessions. Australian authors have done a lot of work in this field for those inclined to do some research

Organised labour is not really ahead of the cycle, rather they react to implied threats, with the possible exception of ALPA in the USA who with Chapter 11 provisions have some forewarning what is upon them. Much research has been done into the topic and it is well known in corporate circles have to control 'negotiation' with cancelled meetings the norm.


This time however the underlying forces (business cycle) correction may be sufficient to delay the shortage, but it will not be curtailed by a cyclical correction. The hope is that in providing a glimpse from the other side of the curtain, pilots consider the veiled threats and whispers as just that.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 12:51   #308 (permalink)
 
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Your 7 year business cycle sounds suspiciously like a Shemitah cycle.
GANN’S “THE DECENNIAL CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET , I've found to be more accurate.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 20:14   #309 (permalink)
 
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blow.n.gasket, a shekel here or there is quite likely!

The point, as I am sure you are aware, was following the previous post, as Keg alluded to the bit in the business cycle where the advantage is with organised labour is when a collapse is imminent! The 'cycle' is used over and over to drive through concessions.

It will be interesting to watch Ryanair pilots as they deal with an adversary far more advanced (and dark)as it relates to dealing with people and hopefully redefine pilot terms and conditions to a more respectful footing. Whether the pilot body worldwide understands the paradigm shift of the demographic impact remains to be seen!
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 18:39   #310 (permalink)
 
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Airlines are already tackling the quality problem via Ab-Initio Cadet Programs. But this has increased the costs and challenging many aviation academies.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 23:03   #311 (permalink)
 
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Hong Kong Express are cancelling flights due to a shortage of pilots.

CAD responds to media enquiries on Hong Kong Express

CAD responds to media enquiries on Hong Kong Express

Quote:
The CAD is highly concerned about HKE's decision to cancel 18 scheduled flights in early October, which is a peak season for travel. After being notified in the afternoon on September 28, the CAD has taken a number of measures within a short period of time to minimise inconvenience and disturbance to the affected passengers, which included tasking the Executive Chairman and President of HKE to attend to the matter personally so as to ensure that every affected passenger would be taken care of properly; summoning its management several times and urging them to safeguard the interests of the travelling public, and to contact the affected passengers and explain to the public the situation as soon as possible; and contacting and seeking help from other local airlines to provide services to passengers in need.
I guess the failed Jetstar Hong Kong venture is now having the last laugh.
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 07:50   #312 (permalink)
 
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Regionals will suffer with a lack of Captains and will probably fall into the trap where they canít upgrade FOs quick enough to keep up with the walking skippers who are being hired onto the 777 in the sandpit.

Having been apart of recruitment in a previous job for a jet operator in this country, forget about pilot shortages on a narrow body. We opened up a ad for a FO, had about 200 applicants in a week. Most were based in the ME or HKG.

Ryanair has long history with that sort of behaviour. The Ryan Family had a share in a Airbus operator in this country and Asia once, cut Pilots pay to increase profits. Half the Captains walked costing it millons and a destroyed the brand causing it to rebrand years later. End result was then approaching pilots to take over 300k SGD to keep the place running.
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 08:37   #313 (permalink)
 
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I guess the failed Jetstar Hong Kong venture is now having the last laugh.
If the numbers floating around are accurate, far more than they dared release, only Mr Joyce would dare claim that debacle as a victory!

Cathay Pacific says Jetstar Hong Kong a 'branch office' of Qantas
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 13:21   #314 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by hitansh View Post
Airlines are already tackling the quality problem via Ab-Initio Cadet Programs. But this has increased the costs and challenging many aviation academies.
Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 13:37   #315 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by "Littlebird" View Post
Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...
Varies from carrier to carrier. Some like Ryanair or Easy have some serious resources behind their programs which are very much incident free and produce some great pilots.

Then youíve got carriers in this country who are too focused on skimping everything they donít back up their own programs which has pilots slamming tails on runways on their first flights, selecting incorrect flap settings....or up in Indo landing short of seawalls....

Not the checkies fault though, they are given nil resources to begin with.
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 13:53   #316 (permalink)
 
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Wheels down - I disagree. Easy and RYR have serious resources but they don’t spend a single penny on ab-initial programmes and initial type ratings. RYR recruits even pay for their own selection. So their victims cough up the cash. RYR also don’t pay their staff for any costs incurred whilst training and neither do they get sector pay. This is now costing the pikey a fortune. What a pity!

PM
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 21:18   #317 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by "Littlebird" View Post
Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...
Airlines are mending quality while rejecting the majority from XYZ Academies.
Some good academies are CAE, FTA, CTC. There might be a few exceptions but quality is in Ab-Initio Programs.
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Old 14th Oct 2017, 06:36   #318 (permalink)
 
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Quality is NOT in ab-initio programs. When you find pilots arriving for training expecting to be spoon fed, who have been flying jets previously not being able to compute a descent profile without VNAV, not being able to do basic mental maths and unable to relate that Attitude + Power = Performance nor understand some fundamental theory then it is obvious the ab-initio training is seriously failing the Cadets. It appears that these schools like most Airline Management believe that Automation and rigid SOP's are all that is required in a cockpit today.
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Old 14th Oct 2017, 07:18   #319 (permalink)
 
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It appears that these schools like most Airline Management believe that Automation and rigid SOP's are all that is required in a cockpit today.
Very true.
It is well known that prior to any order being made, airline executives get to 'fly' simulators and are shown how easily automation handles it all!. It allows little boys to live out their dreams and of course drives the fallacy that anyone can do it. As Mr O Leary has publicly said numerous times, automation does everything these days. The script given to him contains all sorts of put downs, occasionally he will wander off reservation as his own personal biases tend to infect his sad rhetoric.

Qantas' Alan Joyce had a bit of a go at Aer Lingus pilot school, the public story is his eyesight let him down.

Am told from friends in the Qantas group, the former JQ CEO Bruce Buchanan (the BCG accountant) was going on leave one year and was asked his intentions. He replied (and I paraphrase), 'he was going to get an A320 licence'. All miraculously achieved in a few weeks! Amazing!


Of course the skill set takes acumen, time and expense to attain. As Mr Joyce found out some people just can't meet the standard.
Airlines are very concerned of a structural shortage, the emergence of the ME3 and the Chinese carriers continues to absorb lots of the existing supply.

Thus it is completely predictable that the use of the cadet programs will intensify, ultimately will the airlines have to self fund training? This is already evident in many airlines in Europe and the USA.
In the interim expect the manufacturers to pump out PR on the pilot less aircraft, all achieved by sometime next month!

Last edited by Rated De; 14th Oct 2017 at 07:32.
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Old 15th Oct 2017, 10:22   #320 (permalink)
 
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Lookleft: Sorry but I have to correct the ledger here.
JQ was hurriedly started in a last minute attempt to stop a well backed Spirit Airlines launching their B737 ops based out of Avalon. Spirit media launch there with MD Mike Dixon obviously cancelled, given Pornstars' media launch the day before!
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