Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Pilot shortage

Old 10th Oct 2017, 13:24
  #301 (permalink)  
Keg

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I recall on the QF recruitment thread that a number of people who were given rejection emails in March were subsequently invited in for an assessment centre. I wonder if the reasons for those subsequent invitations is related to the subject matter.

Of course, with an impending pilot shortage in Australia, training going flat out at Qantas, new 737 sim on the way, etc, surely an exonerated mic downturn is just months away?
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 09:19
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The business cycle is to what you allude. Convention is the business cycle is around seven years between peaks. We are currently due excessive money printing (Quantitative easing) about eleven years into the cycle and well overdue for a correction..




When is the big question

It is this cycle the IR practitioners (a dark art if ever there was one) use to time their delay to negotiation in order to simultaneously threaten to take away any nominal salary(payment for delay) and drive through concessions. Australian authors have done a lot of work in this field for those inclined to do some research

Organised labour is not really ahead of the cycle, rather they react to implied threats, with the possible exception of ALPA in the USA who with Chapter 11 provisions have some forewarning what is upon them. Much research has been done into the topic and it is well known in corporate circles have to control 'negotiation' with cancelled meetings the norm.


This time however the underlying forces (business cycle) correction may be sufficient to delay the shortage, but it will not be curtailed by a cyclical correction. The hope is that in providing a glimpse from the other side of the curtain, pilots consider the veiled threats and whispers as just that.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 12:51
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Your 7 year business cycle sounds suspiciously like a Shemitah cycle.
GANN’S “THE DECENNIAL CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET , I've found to be more accurate.
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Old 11th Oct 2017, 20:14
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blow.n.gasket, a shekel here or there is quite likely!

The point, as I am sure you are aware, was following the previous post, as Keg alluded to the bit in the business cycle where the advantage is with organised labour is when a collapse is imminent! The 'cycle' is used over and over to drive through concessions.

It will be interesting to watch Ryanair pilots as they deal with an adversary far more advanced (and dark)as it relates to dealing with people and hopefully redefine pilot terms and conditions to a more respectful footing. Whether the pilot body worldwide understands the paradigm shift of the demographic impact remains to be seen!
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 18:39
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Airlines are already tackling the quality problem via Ab-Initio Cadet Programs. But this has increased the costs and challenging many aviation academies.
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Old 12th Oct 2017, 23:03
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Hong Kong Express are cancelling flights due to a shortage of pilots.

CAD responds to media enquiries on Hong Kong Express

CAD responds to media enquiries on Hong Kong Express

The CAD is highly concerned about HKE's decision to cancel 18 scheduled flights in early October, which is a peak season for travel. After being notified in the afternoon on September 28, the CAD has taken a number of measures within a short period of time to minimise inconvenience and disturbance to the affected passengers, which included tasking the Executive Chairman and President of HKE to attend to the matter personally so as to ensure that every affected passenger would be taken care of properly; summoning its management several times and urging them to safeguard the interests of the travelling public, and to contact the affected passengers and explain to the public the situation as soon as possible; and contacting and seeking help from other local airlines to provide services to passengers in need.
I guess the failed Jetstar Hong Kong venture is now having the last laugh.
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 07:50
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Regionals will suffer with a lack of Captains and will probably fall into the trap where they canít upgrade FOs quick enough to keep up with the walking skippers who are being hired onto the 777 in the sandpit.

Having been apart of recruitment in a previous job for a jet operator in this country, forget about pilot shortages on a narrow body. We opened up a ad for a FO, had about 200 applicants in a week. Most were based in the ME or HKG.

Ryanair has long history with that sort of behaviour. The Ryan Family had a share in a Airbus operator in this country and Asia once, cut Pilots pay to increase profits. Half the Captains walked costing it millons and a destroyed the brand causing it to rebrand years later. End result was then approaching pilots to take over 300k SGD to keep the place running.
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 08:37
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I guess the failed Jetstar Hong Kong venture is now having the last laugh.
If the numbers floating around are accurate, far more than they dared release, only Mr Joyce would dare claim that debacle as a victory!

Cathay Pacific says Jetstar Hong Kong a 'branch office' of Qantas
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 13:21
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Originally Posted by hitansh View Post
Airlines are already tackling the quality problem via Ab-Initio Cadet Programs. But this has increased the costs and challenging many aviation academies.
Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 13:37
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Originally Posted by "Littlebird" View Post
Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...
Varies from carrier to carrier. Some like Ryanair or Easy have some serious resources behind their programs which are very much incident free and produce some great pilots.

Then youíve got carriers in this country who are too focused on skimping everything they donít back up their own programs which has pilots slamming tails on runways on their first flights, selecting incorrect flap settings....or up in Indo landing short of seawalls....

Not the checkies fault though, they are given nil resources to begin with.
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 13:53
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Wheels down - I disagree. Easy and RYR have serious resources but they don’t spend a single penny on ab-initial programmes and initial type ratings. RYR recruits even pay for their own selection. So their victims cough up the cash. RYR also don’t pay their staff for any costs incurred whilst training and neither do they get sector pay. This is now costing the pikey a fortune. What a pity!

PM
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Old 13th Oct 2017, 21:18
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Originally Posted by "Littlebird" View Post
Cadet programs may assist with the quantity problem although quality is another matter...
Airlines are mending quality while rejecting the majority from XYZ Academies.
Some good academies are CAE, FTA, CTC. There might be a few exceptions but quality is in Ab-Initio Programs.
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Old 14th Oct 2017, 06:36
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Quality is NOT in ab-initio programs. When you find pilots arriving for training expecting to be spoon fed, who have been flying jets previously not being able to compute a descent profile without VNAV, not being able to do basic mental maths and unable to relate that Attitude + Power = Performance nor understand some fundamental theory then it is obvious the ab-initio training is seriously failing the Cadets. It appears that these schools like most Airline Management believe that Automation and rigid SOP's are all that is required in a cockpit today.
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Old 14th Oct 2017, 07:18
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It appears that these schools like most Airline Management believe that Automation and rigid SOP's are all that is required in a cockpit today.
Very true.
It is well known that prior to any order being made, airline executives get to 'fly' simulators and are shown how easily automation handles it all!. It allows little boys to live out their dreams and of course drives the fallacy that anyone can do it. As Mr O Leary has publicly said numerous times, automation does everything these days. The script given to him contains all sorts of put downs, occasionally he will wander off reservation as his own personal biases tend to infect his sad rhetoric.

Qantas' Alan Joyce had a bit of a go at Aer Lingus pilot school, the public story is his eyesight let him down.

Am told from friends in the Qantas group, the former JQ CEO Bruce Buchanan (the BCG accountant) was going on leave one year and was asked his intentions. He replied (and I paraphrase), 'he was going to get an A320 licence'. All miraculously achieved in a few weeks! Amazing!


Of course the skill set takes acumen, time and expense to attain. As Mr Joyce found out some people just can't meet the standard.
Airlines are very concerned of a structural shortage, the emergence of the ME3 and the Chinese carriers continues to absorb lots of the existing supply.

Thus it is completely predictable that the use of the cadet programs will intensify, ultimately will the airlines have to self fund training? This is already evident in many airlines in Europe and the USA.
In the interim expect the manufacturers to pump out PR on the pilot less aircraft, all achieved by sometime next month!

Last edited by Rated De; 14th Oct 2017 at 07:32.
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Old 15th Oct 2017, 10:22
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Lookleft: Sorry but I have to correct the ledger here.
JQ was hurriedly started in a last minute attempt to stop a well backed Spirit Airlines launching their B737 ops based out of Avalon. Spirit media launch there with MD Mike Dixon obviously cancelled, given Pornstars' media launch the day before!
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Old 23rd Oct 2017, 23:58
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Of course Straya is different....










Air Force To Recall Up To 1,000 Retired Military Pilots After Trump Unexpectedly Revises Sept 11 Executive Order | Zero Hedge
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Old 25th Oct 2017, 08:40
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Meetings to tempt Cathay Pacific pilots to switch jobs cancelled after legal warning | South China Morning Post

From memory Longreach could do the same thing in Australia; control reduced supply....

CX management will react typically like O'leary, derision and divisiveness. Throw in a legal threat.

Control supply like doctors do and you have the game, but organised labour long ago abandoned strategic thinking...
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Old 25th Oct 2017, 08:51
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CX couldn't have handed Longreach a better PR opportunity, massive free advertising way beyond what they could have possibly spent themselves.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 03:59
  #319 (permalink)  
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Cae moving in to Tamworth , not quite the way the Mayor described it.
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Old 3rd Nov 2017, 01:03
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However, most likely the CAE Tamworth training will be for overseas airline students.

Good business by CAE and good for Tamworth.
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