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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

Old 25th May 2014, 04:27
  #4301 (permalink)  
 
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I heard a deals been done for 30 789s with pilot training slots booked in Singapore until 2019.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha


As if.
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Old 25th May 2014, 05:23
  #4302 (permalink)  
 
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All the senior folk in J* are still planning for the swap out of 787-8's for the 787-9's to enable more J* longhaul expansion. Hopefully not true, to be honest J* international should have been downsized as part of this review and the 787's given to Qantas to use properly on medium/longhaul high premium routes.
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Old 25th May 2014, 05:28
  #4303 (permalink)  
 
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an order firmed up for the -900s would have been sung from the rooftops.

in the absence of that, myth busted i'd say.
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Old 25th May 2014, 06:09
  #4304 (permalink)  
 
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SH has said that if the "Group" was to order any aircraft while it has the current level of debt, the share price would drop to 10c.

Don't expect any new aircraft (apart from A320's) for many years - reminds you of Ansett.
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Old 25th May 2014, 07:05
  #4305 (permalink)  
 
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Or maybe they could use the 787 sim in MEL..
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Old 25th May 2014, 08:02
  #4306 (permalink)  
 
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Many of you would be familiar with "TED" so here's a recent one regarding Why good leaders make you feel safe....
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Old 25th May 2014, 08:17
  #4307 (permalink)  
 
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I hope I'm wrong but the public decision to shed pilots is probably indicative of a private decision re. future aircraft orders.
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Old 25th May 2014, 08:55
  #4308 (permalink)  
 
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Jacknville.

Since when has QF ever made a rational decision on pilot numbers.

They should have made 200 pilots redundant in late 09 or early 10 but they didn't.

They are potentially offering VR now to reduce the short term training costs of a massive RIN.

With the amount of crew over 60 & potential retirements it's quite possible they will leave themselves short.

MC.
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Old 25th May 2014, 09:37
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The systematic shutting down of mainline, has been compounded by a complete inability to run an airline - of any sort, low cost or full service.

They are bound to end up with incorrect crewing numbers. Why should it be any different to anything else they have stuffed up.

The demise of the airline has been accelerated, but hopefully there are still a few years left in the red rat. Slowly various departments and experienced people are being removed through VR. No doubt some needed a little push from their empires, but it is quite scary to think that some of the key areas are going. Therefore it is unlikely there will ever be any growth within QANTAS again.
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Old 25th May 2014, 09:48
  #4310 (permalink)  
 
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Blue loo.

The stuff up in establishment numbers will be a certain.

They couldn't even get assigned leave right. They would assign crew to forced leave only to find themselves short.

They have conducted previous RIN's to then find themselves short.

What's happening within the Rat, is its actually becoming a very lean full service airline. The departure of full time support non operational staff is reducing costs.

A lot of the support services previously provided by full time staff are now being offloaded to a DIY service. One only needs to look at the DIY home transport booking services.

Check out CIS, its part DIY. Pilots have to now enter their own licence expiry details.

A small part of me, embedded deep inside the part of my grey matter that triggers my ability to gauge optimism. Is telling me once that wrecking ball named AJ is complete with his employee wagered slash and burn. That QF is ripe for a CEO with vision to exploit growth with new aircraft and reduced cost bases.

MC.
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Old 25th May 2014, 11:05
  #4311 (permalink)  
 
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The only questios are how much damage he is capable of ,what will be left in the burnt carnage and who takes his place.

Bring it on soon I hope but history would say not.
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Old 25th May 2014, 11:15
  #4312 (permalink)  
 
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Ohallen.

AJ's got till 2016 to either destroy the place in its entirety or attempt to turn the thing around.

He's declared the last 4 to 5 years his grand plan would turn QF around by 2016.

If he hasn't succeeded in his grand plan only a fool would continue to support him.

His position as CEO would be untenable past 2016 if he hasn't stemmed the losses.

MC
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Old 25th May 2014, 11:55
  #4313 (permalink)  
 
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Word is longhaul is losing more money now than ever.

The (insert number here) pillar strategy isn't quite working to plan then?
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Old 25th May 2014, 11:57
  #4314 (permalink)  
Keg

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Lightbulb

What's happening within the Rat, is its actually becoming a very lean full service airline. The departure of full time support non operational staff is reducing costs.
Scheduling called a couple of weeks back hoping I'd help out with a SYD- MEL- SYD. I'd run out of regency the day before.

Earlier that day I'd phoned training scheduling to tee up a sim. No call back. I called them again the next day and they weren't aware I'd been released off sick leave and needed to do something. Had I not done the follow up I would have been removed from the next trip- paid. Yeah, those cut backs are working brilliantly.

Last edited by Keg; 25th May 2014 at 13:07. Reason: Typo
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Old 25th May 2014, 12:10
  #4315 (permalink)  
 
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Keg,

I agree with your sentiment. In some areas the degree of the cuts are that great, that it actually becomes less efficient or reliable an operation.

However, some of the "efficiencies" are long overdue (human costs aside)

The fact that QF were paying people (who weren't dispatchers) to arrange paper flight plans and Notams in a manila folder & staple them together was ludicrous.

How about Flight Crew writing the fuel order on a piece of paper and leaving it in the "in tray" so someone else could then phone an order to a third party.

One fleet manager now completing the work of two? The wheels haven't fallen off the operation has it? Aircraft are still flying.

Some of the inefficiencies around the joint have been laughable for years, but they weren't recognised cause they were "the norm"

ps: It's quite possible that the individual in training schedule had been made redundant the day before. I attempted to contact someone recently, only to find out they had "left the business"

MC
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Old 25th May 2014, 13:09
  #4316 (permalink)  
Keg

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Thumbs up

Sure, I agree. Sometimes it takes an outsider to look at all the internal process and say WTF.!?! However, there are times when we cut for the sake of cutting and instead of cutting out inefficiency, we actually cut to the extent we become inefficient.

Time will tell.
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Old 25th May 2014, 13:33
  #4317 (permalink)  
 
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Crew to aircraft ratio

Anyone know what the current, or proposed crew to aircraft ratio across the 73 fleet is? Or for that matter is there a general such ratio across all fleets? Would a 5:1 be unreasonable?

Nkosi
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Old 25th May 2014, 14:10
  #4318 (permalink)  
 
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Keg,

A bit like cutting routes and retiring aircraft to grow the business.

It makes perfect sense in Alan's world.
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Old 25th May 2014, 14:12
  #4319 (permalink)  
 
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Master Caution

AJ's got till 2016 to either destroy the place in its entirety or attempt to turn the thing around.

He's declared the last 4 to 5 years his grand plan would turn QF around by 2016.
Buried in an article in The Australian on Friday was this glimmer of hope from analysts following the rational decision to hold off on capacity increases:

The move prompted analysts at JPMorgan to upgrade the airline to overweight after a comprehensive review of its earnings forecasts.

They revised their fiscal 2015 underlying pre-tax loss estimate of $325.8 million to $134.6m and forecast pre-tax profit the following year of $300m, up from $112.7m.

The underlying pre-tax loss for this year was left unchanged at $620m but the share price target was rolled forward to June 2015 and increased to $1.47.
....

Analysts at CIMB also welcomed the signs of rationality in the market.

However, they noted the Australian aviation environment “remains as bad as we have seen it’’.

The analysts, who have a neutral rating on the stock, are *expecting Qantas and Virgin Australia to between them make a combined full-year pre-tax loss of $1bn.

That broke down to $770m at Qantas and $202m at Virgin. “Nevertheless, we see improve*ment coming as capacity growth subsides in both domestic and international markets,’’ they said, predicting Qantas would return to profitability in 2016.
A $300m profit in 2016 would probably place QF Int close to breakeven at that time if the usual suspects (QF Dom, QFF and a lesser extent JQ) continue to contribute their share of profit as per previous years.
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Old 25th May 2014, 14:14
  #4320 (permalink)  
 
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Nkosi

I've heard of figures such as 7:1 in the Longhaul arena.

So, I would guess a figure less than 7:1 would be appropriate in the shorthaul operations with shorter slip and crew turnaround times.

Having said that, the impending RIN could cause a distortion in historical ratios if that's what your looking at.

MC.
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