Virgin Aircraft 'Emergency' Landing
Is there a measure of BoM accuracy? I'm sure they keep track of how often the get it wrong but is there a publicly available source to back up statements like
?
However your predictions are getting worse at a alarming rate.
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Prince
I don't know about so called less knowledgeable pilots as you put it, but the Metars for Mildura were not produced by automated services as they were on the blink.
So how did the BOM get the info to put a Metar out? An observer perhaps as in human?
Still I suppose a more knowledgeable pilot would have been able to see the weather in Mildura from Adelaide hey?
I don't know about so called less knowledgeable pilots as you put it, but the Metars for Mildura were not produced by automated services as they were on the blink.
So how did the BOM get the info to put a Metar out? An observer perhaps as in human?
Still I suppose a more knowledgeable pilot would have been able to see the weather in Mildura from Adelaide hey?
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We're going to lose one, one day - let;s NOT
Ladies and gents,
If you can't see that this was a near accident, then you shouldn't be posting here. The fact that all survived is great! What forces made that crew nearly kill themselves? If I said to you; "Fill that aircraft up with fuel, and run it into that hill!" you would quite rightly say "No Way!".
Yet, the same sentiment, re-phrased, in a different environment makes people (sane people) push the envelope. Some die, some don't. You have but one life. Don't lose it for anyone. Don't lose it for bean-counters. Don'e lose it for thong-footed bum-scratchers, don't lose it for fat useless executives who don't lead by example.
Just carry enough fuel! OK?
Ned
If you can't see that this was a near accident, then you shouldn't be posting here. The fact that all survived is great! What forces made that crew nearly kill themselves? If I said to you; "Fill that aircraft up with fuel, and run it into that hill!" you would quite rightly say "No Way!".
Yet, the same sentiment, re-phrased, in a different environment makes people (sane people) push the envelope. Some die, some don't. You have but one life. Don't lose it for anyone. Don't lose it for bean-counters. Don'e lose it for thong-footed bum-scratchers, don't lose it for fat useless executives who don't lead by example.
Just carry enough fuel! OK?
Ned
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STOP. there is readily available infrastructure, airborne technology available.
This is an infrastructure issue, and NOTHING else. Build it now. Make it compulsory now for capital airports. Make money available NOW. Imagine a mass loss of life now. This has to be a priority now.
This is an infrastructure issue, and NOTHING else. Build it now. Make it compulsory now for capital airports. Make money available NOW. Imagine a mass loss of life now. This has to be a priority now.
Trouble is guys we live in Australia where we are a nation of horse lovers........................bolted ones that is !!
Wmk2
Wmk2
Last edited by Wally Mk2; 7th Jul 2013 at 22:48.
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Virgin Aircraft 'Emergency' Landing
Fk me dead, what happened before Cat III ILS? Professional pilots are aware that a METAR with the word AUTO attached comes out of a machine....don't they?
Last edited by Hempy; 7th Jul 2013 at 12:37.
In this case, a CAT3 ILS in Adelaide is unlikely to have made any difference. If the cloud/vis is below the alternate criteria (typically 400'/1600m for airports with low vis. installations) and they had the fuel, the crew would have been obliged to divert. So, it's highly probable they would have ended up in Mildura anyway.
I agree they're long overdue in this part of the world but they're not the only piece in this jigsaw puzzle.
I agree they're long overdue in this part of the world but they're not the only piece in this jigsaw puzzle.
At least the FSOs never "broke down" when they were stationed at Mildura.
But I guess the economies of having them there...for the once in 100 year airline events..would not be sustainable.
But I guess the economies of having them there...for the once in 100 year airline events..would not be sustainable.
I agree they're long overdue in this part of the world but they're not the only piece in this jigsaw puzzle.
Hempy's argument that real pilots don't need ILS is nonsense. I bet the old & bold said the same thing about the introduction of VOR. With the generally benign weather in Australia we can get by without it it, but why? Are we a first world nation or not? I've noted before that we could install ILS in 4 airports for the cost of the Mildura passenger terminal renovation. It shows were our priorities lie.
The trouble is that we don't have a strategy for upgrading our air navigation system. We won't put in new ILS systems, but neither will we embrace WAAS. What else is there?
Before we get too far into the debate about re installing FSO's, its worth remembering is that all these flights needed was the BOM to get the TAF remotely correct 2 hours into the future. I suspect the Mildura TAF was still saying PROB30 FOG while it was forming on the runway.
If the diverted flights had better information on Adelaide 60 - 90 minutes out, the decision making would have been better / different.
If the crews had better information on the Mildura weather at the time of diversion, the decision making would have been better / different.
If there was an ILS at Mildura, it would all have been a non-event.
I fly to Mildura about 6 times a year and the number of times the TAF is comprehensively wrong is staggering. But it used to be good. Something changed, I reckon, 3 - 5 years ago. I have no idea what it is, but I suspect there is too much reliance on computer models and not enough judgement. Morning forecasts are always better than the overnight ones. I used to reckon that the 6am forecast was the first of the day that got better. I often used to see significant differences in the forecast then. Now, I think its 9am. My imagination is that the BOM has de-skilled the overnight shifts and are now primarily a 9 - 5 operation.
DirectAnywhere
In this case, a CAT3 ILS in Adelaide is unlikely to have made any difference. If the cloud/vis is below the alternate criteria (typically 400'/1600m for airports with low vis. installations) and they had the fuel, the crew would have been obliged to divert. So, it's highly probable they would have ended up in Mildura anyway.
In this case, a CAT3 ILS in Adelaide is unlikely to have made any difference. If the cloud/vis is below the alternate criteria (typically 400'/1600m for airports with low vis. installations) and they had the fuel, the crew would have been obliged to divert. So, it's highly probable they would have ended up in Mildura anyway.
If you are carrying the alternate you try the approach first - subject to reported vis/ RVR being above your company and type minimas. If you don't get in (zero base and either 75 or 100m for Boeing/ Airbus min RVR cat IIIb) then you divert to said alternate.
Last edited by Daylight Robbery; 8th Jul 2013 at 00:00.
I have no idea what it is, but I suspect there is too much reliance on computer models and not enough judgement
Is it an Australian model or model(s) run by overseas Met officers?
6 million dollars spent on a terminal at Mildura eh?
Daylight Robbery
Ah actually Yes....
The aircraft inbound to ADL didn't have Alternate fuel. That's why they went to Mildura where the weather was supposedly fine.
So it would not have mattered what approaches were available in ADL that day!
Ah actually Yes....
The aircraft inbound to ADL didn't have Alternate fuel. That's why they went to Mildura where the weather was supposedly fine.
So it would not have mattered what approaches were available in ADL that day!
If ADL had a CatIIIB ILS then the crew would not have needed to go to MIA. Given that they were not required to carry an alternate due to the initial forecast they could have continued to ADL and conducted an autoland. Its what has happened at SY on a few occasions even though CB has been available.
If you are carrying the alternate you try the approach first - subject to reported vis/ RVR being above your company and type minimas. If you don't get in (zero base and either 75 or 100m for Boeing/ Airbus min RVR cat IIIb) then you divert to said alternate.
If ADL had had a CAT3 ILS they would still have been required to go to MIA if that was a company alternate and the weather at ADL was below alternate criteria and they didn't have the fuel to divert after an ILS - which they didn't.
Last edited by DirectAnywhere; 8th Jul 2013 at 01:57.
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Does the ops manual stipulate that a flight once airborne must hold an alternate if the weather at destination is below alternate minima? Why when flying precision approaches is ceiling a factor? In the rest of the world only RVR or vis is required for a precision approach. There is usually no ceiling in fog.
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Hempy,
What was that about AUTO on the YMIA metars?
From what I am hearing the AUTO (AWIS) was notamed out.
The metars would presumably have been issued from human observations.
What was that about AUTO on the YMIA metars?
From what I am hearing the AUTO (AWIS) was notamed out.
The metars would presumably have been issued from human observations.