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Virgin applies for links with Singapore Airlines

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Old 9th Jun 2011, 02:46
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Facts are:

QF 500 million dollar profit.
VA 0-80 million loss.

QF Increase in pax numbers.
VA Decrease in pax numbers.

QF Total industrial turmoil
VA Approaching EBA for Domestic & unresolved Long Haul. Good Morale ATM.

QF Whole premium market to themselves since Ansett collapse.
VA Rolling out a good product and likely to attract some from QF.

Overall JB is moving the VA team in a better direction than it was under BG. As he said there was no option to not upgrade the brand the money had to be spent. AJ is annoying staff and some customers. However I don't think you can ever write off the QF group, it is big and powerful. Having said that, this JB fellow has a serious work ethic. He is on a mission like no other. If he keeps the staff onside the way he has from the start he might actually get the QF board's attention. As he said, his secret weapon are his staff. I have to say its a refreshing approach.

I hope both companies do well.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 03:31
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Ero, would you care to tell us then how much Virgin does have in the bank at this moment, and particularly how this justifies your comment that they are "near broke". It's one thing to make a simple comment, it's quite another to back it up with numbers.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 04:36
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Originally Posted by biton
Ero, would you care to tell us then how much Virgin does have in the bank at this moment, and particularly how this justifies your comment that they are "near broke". It's one thing to make a simple comment, it's quite another to back it up with numbers.
This time last year, Virgin Blue had $850M in the bank.

Lay off the weed, Ero.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 04:56
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VBPCGUY and others.

Currently Virgin Australia are operating at a loss. As at yesterday their debt/equity ratio was 191.6%. They hope to make a small profit in the 2012 FY and pay a 1c per share dividend.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 05:27
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Here is some other data for those interested:

http://media.wotnews.com.au/asxann/01178607.pdf
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 07:17
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Great data and info. it all looks great, BUT, rebranding, new uniforms, new aircraft types, new ads, less pax, higher operating costs, expensive board members, new departments all equals a higher cost base.
Higher costs with less passengers equals desperate times.
If I'm on the grass some of you guys are taking way too many happy pills.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 07:29
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Doing nothing would have been game over within a couple of years.

Running a profitable business isn't all about cost cutting you know. Old mate has been in the business 30 plus years lets let him do his thing. He's got a couple of ideas on how to run a business without driving the workforce into the ground. His log of achievements for 13 months of work is impressive to say the least. Lets see how it goes hey.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 09:07
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Ero, I gather then that you still have no numbers whatsoever to back up your claim that they are near broke. You keep bleating on but you have nothing but baseless opinions to offer. I ask again, what numbers are you working off?

Aren't you missing your nightly fix of A Current Affair?
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 09:29
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I don't think VA are "broke" however the cash reserves they have necessary to retain their current credit rating. What it does limit is their ability to invest too much further in their fleet. So whilst they do have some great new A330's there isn't going to be an enormous widebody fleet anytime in the near future - that is without some serious injection of funds which you can never rule out with Branson involved.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 09:35
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JB made it clear he doesn't want to be the biggest but he does want to be the best.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 09:45
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Aren't you missing your nightly fix of A Current Affair?
Thanks, I just watched A Current Affair.

Lets just say, VB under Godfrey built up a solid steady business with cash reserves and moved into a good space in Australian Aviation, JQ handles the scraps, QF the toffs and Tiger the idiots. VB was right in the middle and offered all the options without the tags.
Since Borghetti has moved in and waved his magic wand on a radical change of the airline it has taken a massive hit on the VB bottom line. I'm not saying its wrong or right, just saying it as it is. I've listed where the cash has gone including the losses its generating on a daily basis. If I say that they have spent arount $650-$700 million on the re-structure the mathematics is simple to work out (no need to be a "genius").
If it works, great, if not, did this radical move prove to be the demise of VB. I hope its not.

Time will tell........

In the red corner QF (rich but in turmoil), In the red corner VB (poor but trying).
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 10:05
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I think from memory the cash reserves are about 650 mil. The rebranding is rumored to have cost about 30-50 million.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 10:09
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Cash balance $815 million, up from $476 million
Virgin Press release 2010, now you need to factor the loss expected 2011 into this figure.

Cash balance of $3.7 billion
Qantas press release after 2010 figures, with an expected profit this year.

Place this in perspective, Virgin is nowhere near 'Cash Rich'. They conducted a heavily discounted capital raising in 2009 as well as sale and leaseback of assets. After the expected 2010/2011 loss they have will have limited funding sources, relying heavily on cash at hand.

Make of it what you will but this is a gamble that Borghetti has had to make as the airline's future was certainly bleak.

Last edited by KABOY; 9th Jun 2011 at 10:29.
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 10:43
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Cant see Branson pumping more funds, well he isn't at Virgin America and they are half a billion in debt, no money in the bank and approaching negative cash flow....nice cabins, not attractive balance sheet! so it might take alot more before we see some $$ from SRB......
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Old 9th Jun 2011, 11:55
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Sir Richard has a pretty good history of buying low and selling high.
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Old 11th Jun 2011, 10:47
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Are we sure it's Singair, not Slingair?

DJ is not in a happy position balance sheet wise. Remember that AN made a $300m profit shortly before its demise.

SQ just want access rights through Australia. They tried to buy it with AN, but ANZ interferred, now they are trying a different approach. They won't invest in DJ, they just want those rights.

Cheers
Prado.
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Old 11th Jun 2011, 22:32
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Lets just get the sequence of events when the last CEO left correct shall we? Just before he left and prior to getting his final settlement from the board, this guy announces a profit upgrade of 80 mill. 6 weeks after NEW CEO starts and while he is still surveying the mess he has been left, he has to downgrade the profit forecast by 60 mill. Draw a line between the dots guys.
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Old 12th Jun 2011, 00:33
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Ero Plano implies that he/she was satisfied with BG's achievements, & I also believe in giving credit where credit's due. Therefore I would say the best thing BG ever did was convince Branson to start Virgin Blue. Of course, everything after that was basically a combination of dumb luck & timing. Need I mention the fact that even a complete moron could make money from aviation after one of your major competitors has just folded & left a gaping hole in the market?
  • Original uniforms: FAIL
  • Live2Air: FAIL
  • Premium Economy: FAIL
  • Promoting a culture where everyone is on the same footing, where hierarchy is non-existent (unless you were BG), & pilots are no more important than baggage handlers (no offence intended towards bag chuckers, but you guys didn't spend $80,000-$100,000 + spend years doing the hard yards to consolidate your skills & qualifications for your current job description): FAIL
  • Publicly stating how much he valued & respected us, whilst internally showing us nothing short of contempt: FAIL
  • Making financially misleading statements about the state of the company, only to have the incoming CEO be forced to clean up the mess & announce the real state of affairs: FAIL

...I could go on, but you get the idea.

I'm not a kiss-ass kinda guy, & it wouldn't be the first time I've gotten myself in strife for saying what I think, but I genuinely believe JB is the best thing that ever happened to VB/VA. That's not to say he won't make tough decisions that will piss people off from time to time (as I've acknowledged in previous comments), but he's never been anything other than upfront, forthright, a straight shooter - & true to his word in delivering on all the things he said he would in his first twelve months in the job. Having spoken with him personally, I find him to be very approachable, genuinely appreciative of the efforts of his staff, & always willing to discuss whatever issues might be of concern to us at the front line. That doesn't mean he always gives you the answer you want to hear, but he always gives you the time of day - & that speaks volumes to me.

Reinventing an airline from the ground up is not a simple task, any more than it is cheap. It goes without saying that our bottom line does not look healthy at the moment, but I am not concerned. Of course, if we're still scraping the barrel in two or three years from now, well that's another story. Nevertheless we are in a transitional phase at present, & with natural disasters of the last few months affecting leisure travel (which, let's face it, wouldn't make things any better regardless of who was running the airline), I wouldn't expect things to be any different. The important thing is that JB is making changes that are (a) necessary, (b) costly - because you have to spend money in order to make money - & JB's not afraid to do so, & (c) will make for a far better airline when the changes are complete & the market comes to realise just how good the end result is.

Last edited by The Bunglerat; 12th Jun 2011 at 00:49. Reason: spelling
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Old 12th Jun 2011, 03:30
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Bunglerat

Original uniforms: FAIL
Live2Air: FAIL
Premium Economy: FAIL
Promoting a culture where everyone is on the same footing, where hierarchy is non-existent (unless you were BG), & pilots are no more important than baggage handlers (no offence intended towards bag chuckers, but you guys didn't spend $80,000-$100,000 + spend years doing the hard yards to consolidate your skills & qualifications for your current job description): FAIL
Publicly stating how much he valued & respected us, whilst internally showing us nothing short of contempt: FAIL
Making financially misleading statements about the state of the company, only to have the incoming CEO be forced to clean up the mess & announce the real state of affairs: FAIL
Mate, good list of FAIL points, I don't agree with all, but I do agree with some. JB is a stand-up bloke and QF staff are bleeding that he left QF and went to VB. BG on the other hand through "dumb luck" or whatever else it was, built a solid airline in good times and difficult times. Love him or hate him he deserves the credit.
As you say, I hope VB can hang on for the ride while it bleeds the cash reserves.
Where do you guys think JQ would be if QF wasn't behind it? JQ were lucky to carry any more than 15-20 pax on their flights in early days. I remeber one flight where there were 3 pax MEL-OOL (and the service was still s**t). QF decided it would pull out its competing flights on the same routes so passengers had no choice but to use the JQ service and so it continued to grow. The fact JQ's big bills and aircraft leases are paid by QF is another bonus to their operation.
What QF is doing now is burning cash on JQ, renaming Star Class, Buisness Class and will wage a war with VB's new brand on two fronts. Real clash of the titans stuff again.
The winner gets the glory while the losers will probably sell their a** to an Asian or Middle Eastern carrier.
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Old 12th Jun 2011, 06:33
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At the end of June 10 Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd had 216.7 millon cash at bank, 598 millon Deposits at call and of that total 814.7, 355.4 was Restricted cash. You will find at the end of FY11 that amount will have reduced some what. Just like protecting the envelope one must do the same here.
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